Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds, Pick: US Open Semifinal Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds, Pick: US Open Semifinal Prediction article feature image

Frey/Getty. Pictured: Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Odds

Alcaraz Odds-400
 Medvedev Odds+310
Over/Under35.5 (-120 / -105)
Time | How to WatchFriday, 7 p.m. ET · ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. For tips on how to watch US Open, click here.

The second US Open men's semifinal of the day on Friday will be played between two former champions. Carlos Alcaraz needs just two wins to complete a successful title defense, but he'll have to get by the 2021 champion, Daniil Medvedev, before he can hoist another trophy in Queens.

Will the Russian have something to say in this one after being dominated by the Spaniard in their previous two meetings? Let's get into how to bet on Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev in the second US Open semifinal.

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Alcaraz Hasn't Put Together a Full Match Thus Far

So far, so good for defending champion Alcaraz here at the US Open. The Spaniard has dropped just one set en route to the semifinals, with that coming against the pesky Dan Evans in the third round. In the two matches since, he fell behind in a set against Matteo Arnaldi, winning in straights but ultimately failing to cover, and survived in just three sets against Alexander Zverev.

It's hard to get a read on Alcaraz right now because you can easily just chalk up his lapses in his last two matches to boredom. Arnaldi was never going to really trouble Alcaraz, and by the time he went up 2-0 on Zverev it was clear to everyone in the building that the German would not win that match.

Still, Alcaraz was outplayed for most of the first set in his latest victory and, perhaps losing focus, looked awful in the third set. He played a dominant second stanza, showing us that he's very much the best player in the world, but he's yet to really put together a complete match where he's looked unstoppable. He hasn't had to, and it's very possible he'll do that against Medvedev considering he does get up for the big matches.

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Medvedev Playing Near Peak Level

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Medvedev has always dominated the North American hard court swing, so to see him enter the US Open without a run to even the semifinals during either of the Masters 1000 events in the lead-up was jarring. The World No. 3 entered this tournament needing to answer several questions, and he's done so in typical fashion.

He has survived some grueling conditions in his last two matches in addition to some body blows as well. Medvedev went down a set to Alex de Minaur — a player who had defeated him in their last two meetings, including once in August — and he trailed Andrey Rublev by a break early in the first set of their quarterfinal match.

The 2021 US Open champ pulled himself up by the bootstraps in each encounter, and by the end of his straight-set win over Rublev he said he would rate his level at a "10 out of 10."

Given Medvedev's hilarious candidness, it's hard not to trust him. He looks every bit as good as he did when he won this whole thing two years ago.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Pick

These two have met twice since Alcaraz really hit his top level, with the Spaniard winning both matches in straight sets. While one was on hard courts, one was on the notoriously slow courts at Indian Wells, which play like clay. The other was on grass at Wimbledon this year.

Over the years, we've learned that the self-proclaimed hard court specialist really does struggle when the surface doesn't play to his liking. It was a battle for him to even make the Indian Wells final given the court speeds, and despite reaching the Wimbledon quarters he had several challenges on his way there.

So, I don't think those matches will be quite like this one, given this surface will give Medvedev his best chance of defeating Alcaraz. Medvedev, who was a 3.5-game underdog against Alcaraz at Wimbledon, now finds himself getting 5.5 games here.

I think this is a number you simply have to take. Not only has Medvedev looked great in recent matches on his favorite surface and Alcaraz a bit flat in the last couple of wins, you have to remember that the Russian is renowned for being a master strategist. While Alcaraz has been able to exploit Medvedev's deep court position with his drop shot in the past, as well as the serve-and-volley, Medvedev has had all year to devise a plan for their first meeting at a hard court Slam.

I'm willing to bet on Medvedev coming out with a slightly more aggressive approach and different game plan, and I'm very encouraged by how he's looked in recent matches. Though Alcaraz likely overpowers Medvedev – perhaps in four sets – I do see Medvedev covering this number. He can absolutely win this match.

Pick: Medvedev +5.5 games (+100)

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