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Caroline Garcia vs. Coco Gauff US Open Odds, Preview: Trust the In-Form Frenchwoman (September 6)

Caroline Garcia vs. Coco Gauff US Open Odds, Preview: Trust the In-Form Frenchwoman (September 6) article feature image
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Tim Clayton-Corbis, Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Coco Gauff and Caroline Garcia.

  • Coco Gauff headlines the night session at Arthur Ashe on Tuesday evening.
  • The American will take on the in-form Caroline Garcia.
  • Read on for David Gertler's betting analysis of the high-stakes match.

Garcia vs. Gauff Odds

Garcia Odds -130
 Gauff Odds +105
Over/Under 21.5
Time | How to Watch 7 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. For tips on how to watch the US Open, click here.

Caroline Garcia has now won 12 matches in a row, most recently defeating Alison Riske 6-4, 6-1 in the round of 16.

The Frenchwoman is crushing her competition, but how will she do against Coco Gauff, with her excellent foot speed and counterpunching abilities?

Read on for my analysis below!

Garcia Has a Habit of Winning

Garcia was excellent against Riske in that round-of-16 matchup. She won 75% of her first-serve points, hit eight aces and wasn’t broken all match.  Garcia hit 30 winners compared to 23 unforced errors during the match.

On return, Garcia won 56% of her second-serve return points against Riske. This is Garcia’s third straight match winning over 50% of her second-serve return points.

Garcia has had a positive winner/unforced-error ratio in all four matches she’s played this tournament. She’s also won a combined 77% of her first-serve points in the tournament. The Frenchwoman has also only faced eight break points in the four matches and been broken two times.

Garcia, as I mentioned earlier, has won 12-straight matches. She’s also won 11-straight sets and has gone five-straight matches without losing more than six games. Garcia is now 39-15 on the season and 18-9 on hard courts. Overall, the Frenchwoman is 241-197 on hard courts in her career.

Garcia is playing with a high level of controlled aggression. She’s serving big and using her forehand, especially, to dictate from the baseline. However, it must be noted that Garcia is even able to dominate with her backhand, as her game is clicking on all cylinders.

Garcia is crushing every second serve and groundstroke short in the court and, as we saw against Bianca Andreescu in the third round, even excellent defenders are unable to bait Garcia into unforced errors at this point.

The quicker courts at the US Open are also advantageous for Garcia’s game.

Gauff Fighting Hard

Coco Gauff played an excellent match to beat Shuai Zhang 7-5, 7-5. Gauff hit 33 winners versus 25 unforced errors, while getting a lot of Zhang’s big groundstrokes back into play and forcing her to work very hard during her service games. Zhang only won 54% of her service points and was broken five times.

Gauff’s own serve left something to be desired, as she only won 62% of her first serves and 48% of her second serves. And it is true that the American has won under 50% of her second-serve points in three-straight matches.

However, the rest of Gauff’s game is all in-sync at the moment. She’s defending incredibly well, utilizing her foot speed to track down an extraordinary number of her opponents’ groundstrokes, but also looking for opportunities to turn points around.

Gauff’s backhand has always been her strength, as she effectively controls the baseline from that wing. However, Gauff’s forehand has been a revelation this tournament, as the American has not only been solid from this wing, but has even dictated play from the baseline without the forehand unforced errors that she’s known for.

With all of this said, it’s no surprise that Gauff is 19-10 on hard courts for the year and 24-16 overall in 2022.

Betting Value

Garcia is in a zone and playing the best tennis of her career. She’s serving very well and playing with controlled aggression from both wings.

It’s true that Gauff has beaten two power-based players in her two prior rounds, but Madison Keys didn’t have the consistency that Garcia has brought to the table and Zhang isn’t as mentally tough as the Frenchwoman.

While Gauff’s defensive and counterpunching skills have been superb, Garcia is hitting with such ferocity that it will be very tough for Gauff if she’s consistently getting pushed around the court. The Andreescu match showcased how hard it is for opponents to even get the batches of unforced errors that Garcia was giving away earlier this summer (such as in Palermo against Bronzetti).

I’m also worried about Gauff’s second serve, which has not been good in recent matches. Given how effective Garcia has been punishing weaker second serves, this is certainly an area of concern for the American.

Pick: Garcia ML (-130)

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