Day 3 ATP Cup Tennis Picks: Live Underdogs in Round Robin Play
Credit: Andy Cheung, Getty. Alejandro Tabilo hits a backhand at the ATP Cup.
The tennis rolls on in Australia as two more tournaments get under way.
Two 250-level events will be played in addition to the current ATP Cup team event that is underway, meaning there will be even more opportunities to find value across the slate of matches.
However, the best spots for Sunday night’s (and Monday morning’s) action still come from the leading event of the weekend, so let’s hop in to where I see value.
Match times are subject to change. For tips on viewing tennis matches, read here.
Filip Krajinovic (-230) vs. Alejandro Tabilo (+180)
1:30 a.m. ET
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Until Krajinovic gives me a reason to stop fading him on hard courts, I won’t.
Most recently, the Serbian allowed Viktor Durasovic to contend in a match that he really controlled throughout. Krajinovic played to about the highest level that he has in terms of ball-striking, but he still wasn’t able to pull away.
Tabilo gave Pablo Carreno Busta all he could handle in the first group of matches, and a lot of the struggles that he faced are correctable. Six double faults and countless attempts to go for the drop shot when it wasn’t there made the difference for the Chilean, and a simple easing of nerves or strategy adjustment could allow him to get by Krajinovic.
If the groundstrokes are anything like they were against PCB, look for Tabilo to pose an upset threat.
Pick: Tabilo +180 via DraftKings
Federico Delbonis (-650) vs. Michael Pervolarakis (+420)
1:30 a.m. ET
Another player who struggles mightily on hard courts is Delbonis, who didn’t win a single hard court match in 2021. His win two days ago came against Aleksandre Metreveli, the world number 571.
Though the Greek number two didn’t fare well in his opening round match with Kamil Majchrzak, Delbonis doesn’t present the same challenge on this surface.
Pervolarakis only played matches on hard courts last season, with not a single appearance on clay or grass. His 28-22 record was largely established on the Challenger Tour, but Delbonis on a hard court is essentially a Challenger level player. On clay this isn’t even a discussion, but on this surface this match becomes extremely competitive.
At this price, there isn ‘t even a question of whether this is playable.
Pick: 0.5u Pervolarakis to win a set +150 | 0.5u Pervolarakis +420 via PointsBet
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-135) vs. Diego Schwartzman (+106)
2:50 a.m. ET
No player was more impressive in his opening match than Schwartzman, who won 17 more points on return than his opponent Nikoloz Basilashvili. The Argentinian won 78 percent of the points behind his first serve and 75 percent of the points behind his second, highlighting just how good his ball-striking was.
Tsitsipas comes into the match having withdrawn from his opening singles match due to the issues with his elbow that he has been dealing with. Tsitsipas did play doubles, and he was able to eke out a win with Pervolarakis against a talented Polish doubles side, but singles involves much more intensity and physical exertion.
This line would not appear this way in normal circumstances, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should be afraid to hit it. If Tsitsipas was fully healthy, Schwartzman would still be a live underdog, so if the Greek is miraculously fully healthy, Schwartzman could still put up a quality fight.
It’s far more likely that Tsitsipas needs to work into form, however.
Pick: Diego Schwartzman +106 via FanDuel