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Iga Swiatek vs. Daria Kasatkina French Open Odds, Pick, Preview (June 2)

Iga Swiatek vs. Daria Kasatkina French Open Odds, Pick, Preview (June 2) article feature image

Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Iga Swiatek.

Swiatek vs. Kasatkina Odds

Swiatek Odds -950
 Kasatkina Odds +610
Over/Under 18.5
Time 9 a.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

World No. 1 Iga Swiatek will take on Daria Kasatkina for a spot in the French Open semifinals.

Swiatek easily advanced past her quarterfinal match at the French Open. She defeated Jessica Pegula 6-2, 6-2.

But with the pressure of a 33-match winning streak on her shoulders, how will Swiatek do against the world No. 20 Kasatkina?

Let’s take a look at this quarterfinal match.

Swiatek Extends Winning Streak

Swiatek made it look easy on Tuesday as she extended her winning streak to 33 matches.

This streak includes a 14-0 record on clay where it’s exceedingly difficult for opponents to string together sets, let alone matches. During the clay-court season, Swiatek has won 28 sets and lost just two.

Pegula was just the latest player to struggle with Swiatek’s game. The Pole won 67% of her service points and was only broken once all match.

She hit 30 winners compared to 28 unforced errors and won 9-of-10 points at the net. On return, Swiatek won 51% of her points, allowing her to break five times.

Pegula won just 38% of her second-serve points in the match. She became yet another Swiatek opponent who won less than 50% of her second serve points and was broken at least five times against the Pole’s return.

Swiatek does a great job of getting returns back into play and then using her heavy, powerful forehand to turn the points and around before getting into a winning position. Swiatek’s backhand has also gotten to the point where opponents are not able to target that wing effectively.

It was encouraging to see Swiatek win 90% of her net points, as well.

Swiatek now has an 88-13 record on clay over the course of her career. It was clear in the match against Pegula that Swiatek was much more comfortable building points on the surface and she was able to rush Pegula and force the American to overhit trying to end points more quickly.

But how will Swiatek do against a player like Kasatkina, who is right at home on clay?

Kasatkina’s Good Form Continues

Kasatkina is playing excellent clay-court tennis. She has not dropped a set at Roland Garros so far and has won nine of her last ten matches overall (all on clay).

In the quarterfinals of Roland Garros, Kasatkina defeated Veronika Kudermetova 6-4, 7-6(5).

Kasatkina was very effective on return, generating 17 break points and breaking serve five times. She won 49% of her return points, including 62% on Kudermetova’s second serve. She has won over 50% of her second-serve return points in every match this tournament.

However, the serve is an area of concern for Kasatkina. Against Kudermetova, she only won 55% of her service points, including just 57% on her first serve and 50% on her second serve.

Kasatkina only won 50% of her second-serve points in the round of 16 against Camila Giorgi as well. Kasatkina is outside the top 100 for the percentage of points won on both first and second serves.

However, Kasatkina does have a 111-43 professional record on clay in her career and has managed to limit the damage her weaker serve has done to her game. The Russian is very consistent from the both wings and uses her forehand to help her dictate play from the baseline.

Kasatkina doesn’t dictate in terms of having a lot of firepower, but rather in terms of the placement of her groundstrokes around the court.

She hits precise groundstrokes that force her opponent to constantly be on the movement. Kasatkina herself moves very well around the court, understanding how to construct points on clay. It also helps that she hits touch shots with remarkable accuracy.

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Betting Value

As mentioned before, Kasatkina’s serve is going to be completely under fire in this match.

Swiatek is in the top five on the WTA Tour in terms of the percentage of first-serve return points won, and she’s in the top-15 for the percentage of second-serve return points won.

Given that Kasatkina regularly rolls her serve in, Swiatek’s return is going to be a major problem for the Russian.

While Kasatkina has great placement around the court, Swiatek is fast enough to get to these shots with ease, and using her excellent counterpunching and controlled aggression, she’ll turn points around in her favor.

Kasatkina will not be able to hit through Swiatek, while the Pole should be able to power through Kasatkina fairly easily.

Pick:  Under 18.5 games (-130)

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