Monday US Open Odds & Predictions: Osorio Will Wear Down Li (August 29)
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Camila Osorio.
- It's time for the opening round at the US Open.
- David Gertler breaks down two matches that offer betting value in the women's draw.
- Read on for his predictions on two Monday matches.
The US Open has arrived! The US Open will be the last chance to snag a major in 2022.
And the good news for us is that I’ve found more value on Monday’s order of play.
Read on for my US Open best bets and previews.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Camila Osorio (-125) vs. Ann Li (+104)
11 a.m. ET
Camila Osorio has lost eight-of-nine matches overall and gone only 1-3 during the summer hard-court swing, but her recent results are better than they initially appear. Osorio wore down Sofia Kenin in Washington before losing a two-hour, 46 minute battle against Emma Raducanu.
Then, after falling to a big-hitter in Donna Vekic on the quick Cincinnati courts, she lost in nearly four hours to Sara Sorribes Tormo in Cleveland. It’s clear that Osorio has been competitive recently.
Osorio has a solid 49-35 record on hard courts during her career. She’s been able to adapt her game to hard courts over time.
The Colombian gets consistent depth from the baseline, has great placement around the court and has a high tennis IQ. Osorio can drag out matches and test players physically, as well.
Ann Li hasn’t played since falling to Marie Bouzkova in the second round of Wimbledon. While she has a 109-61 record on hard courts as a professional, Li has not played on hard since Miami in March. Li will have gotten no match preparation coming into this event and is just 10-12 overall on the season.
Li has clean groundstrokes and moves well around the court. She’s a smart player with a knack for rarely getting pushed back behind the baseline. The American also counterpunches very well. Li can start spraying unforced errors, however, and this will especially be the case given that it’s her first match since June.
Osorio is playing better than her results show, with a high level of consistency from the baseline. She’s forcing opponents to decrease their margins to go through her.
Given that Li is already going to be undercooked coming into this match, trying to grind through Osorio in the New York City heat and humidity in her first match back is going to be very difficult.
The unforced errors should flow for the American and she will wear down as this match goes on.
Pick: Osorio ML (-125 via FanDuel)
Sara Sorribes Tormo (-360) vs. Viktoria Kuzmova (+280)
5 p.m. ET
Sara Sorribes Tormo went just 2-3 during the summer hard-court swing, although two of the losses were to world number six Aryna Sabalenka and eventual Cleveland finalist Aliaksandra Sasnovich.
While Sorribes Tormo is just 9-9 this season on hard courts, she is 110-63 in her career on the surface.
The grinder is a nightmare to play, and that will be especially pronounced in the harsh New York City summer weather. Sorribes Tormo is ultra-consistent and gets good depth on her groundstrokes. She has a strong backhand slice that can change the rhythm of points and she utilizes the entire court.
In addition, Sorribes Tormo is one of the most fit players on the WTA Tour.
Viktoria Kuzmova did well to qualify without losing a set. During her qualifying campaign, Kuzmova won a combined 76% of her first-serve points and was only broken four times in the three matches. Kuzmova is a good hard-court player, with a 189-99 record as a professional and a 19-11 record this season.
Kuzmova’s game is based on her big first serve. The Slovak hits her serve with a lot of pace and precision. She hits with aggression from the baseline when given the opportunity to do so, especially from the forehand wing.
The problem for Kuzmova is that her rally tolerance isn’t great, her fitness is mediocre and she is not the best mover around the court.
This is a great matchup for Sorribes Tormo, whose game is based on around fitness and consistent depth. She will be able to get a lot of Kuzmova’s big serves back into play and extend rallies, testing Kuzmova’s fitness.
Sorribes Tormo’s consistent depth will force Kuzmova to press from the baseline, which will be accentuated when Sorribes Tormo hits her backhand slice.
In terms of Elo Ratings, Sorribes Tormo’s overall Elo is 265.1 points higher than Kuzmova’s and her hard-court Elo is 201.7 points higher than the Slovak’s.
Pick: Kuzmova to NOT Win a Set (-124 via FanDuel)
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