Nick Kyrgios vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Wimbledon Betting Odds, Pick, Preview (July 2)
Justin Setterfield/Getty. Pictured: Nick Kyrgios.
Nick Kyrgios vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds
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One of the matches of the tournament — at least on paper — will be played Saturday at Wimbledon.
World No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas will battle one of the most talented players the sport has to offer, Nick Kyrgios.
Where does the value lie in this blockbuster match? Let’s get into it.
Kyrgios is an Elite Grass-Court Player
The Aussie made headlines a few weeks ago when he claimed he’s, “top five or top 10,” in the world on grass, but he’s not wrong.
Kyrgios is 42-21 in his career on grass and he’s 11-3 on the surface this year. One of those losses was a withdrawal in Mallorca, so he’s really only lost to Andy Murray and Hubert Hurkacz this year on grass.
Kyrgios has picked up wins against Tsitsipas himself and other solid players like Jiri Lehecka and Marton Fucsovics.
With one of the best first serves in the game and groundstrokes that stay low, Kyrgios’ game is naturally suited to the surface. He tends to add more topspin on his forehand, which allows him to get in closer to the net and remain comfortable.
Kyrgios has an Elo Rating on grass that is only 100 points worse than his hard court number and that’s usually a good sign that someone is solid on the turf, if you needed any more of an indication.
His first round match with Paul Jubb was on a knife’s edge, but Kyrgios got through that and throttled Filip Krajinovic in the second round.
In that match he hit 25 aces, had just one double fault and didn’t face a single break point. Sheesh.
Tsitsipas Making Big Improvements On Surface
The Greek came into this season 2-4 on grass since 2019, but this year he’s posted a nice 8-2 record with a title in Mallorca.
Though his grass court Elo is over 230 points off of his hard court number and almost 400 points off of his clay court number, he’s gotten much better this season. Tsitsipas has shortened his strokes by a touch and allowed himself to cope with the quicker timing of grass in a more tactical way.
Wins over Benjamin Bonzi (2), Roberto Bautista Agut and Jordan Thompson are no joke on grass and he’s posting the best hold and break percentages on grass of his career.
In Halle, where Kyrgios beat Tsitsipas, the Greek’s second serve was a problem. He only won 50% of his second serve points as compared to Kyrgios’ 81% number. That was the difference.
He’ll need to be a bit more aggressive behind that serve and the first ball if he’s going to get through service games with less pressure.
And with the way Kyrgios serves, relieving pressure will be vital.
Though Tsitsipas is much improved on this surface, Kyrgios should be a bigger favorite than -140.
He’s truly one of the best grass-courters in the world and is in good form. We’re also still early in the tournament, so fitness shouldn’t be a big concern.
Kyrgios got by Tsitsipas on thin margins in Halle, winning 3-of-10 break points while Tsitsipas secured just 1-of-8, but that doesn’t reflect the difference in class on this surface.
At the ATP level, Kyrgios has a 96.5% hold rate on grass this year — a remarkable number. That puts him ahead of players who are serve-focused, like Maxime Cressy, Reilly Opelka and Matteo Berrettini.
Tthe pressure he puts on his opponents is relentless and when you account for the fact that his ground strokes are up there with the top players on grass, this is a brutal matchup for Tsitsipas.
Not to mention, Kyrgios is 3-1 overall against Tsitsipas.
It’s not to say that Tsitsipas can’t win this match, but Kyrgios will win it far more than the 58.3% implied win probability that he’s getting at this price.
Pick: Kyrgios ML (-140, Bet to -160)