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Novak Djokovic vs. Soon-woo Kwon Wimbledon Odds, Analysis, Prediction (June 27)

Novak Djokovic vs. Soon-woo Kwon Wimbledon Odds, Analysis, Prediction (June 27) article feature image
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Craig Mercer/Getty. Pictured: Novak Djokovic.

  • Novak Djokovic kicks off his Wimbledon campaign against Soon-woo Kwon.
  • He comes into this Wimbledon having won the three prior iterations of the tournament.
  • Read on for Isaac Gartzman's best bet and analysis of the match.

Novak Djokovic vs. Soon-woo Kwon Odds

Djokovic Odds -10000
Nishioka Odds +2800
Over/Under 27.5 (-135 / -120)
Time | How to Watch 7:30 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Over the past decade, we have seen nothing short of perfection from Novak Djokovic when it comes to play at Wimbledon.

Winning six of the last 10 Wimbledon Championships, Djokovic is looking to build upon his historic legacy and secure another Grand Slam title as the heavy betting favorite overall.

His round one matchup against Korean righty Soon-woo Kwon should pose no real threat to his title run, however there is still betting value to be found in this lopsided matchup.

Kwon Limited By Lack Of Experience

Kwon’s 2022 season has had some ups and downs. The Korean is 14-18 since the start of the new year. Only three of these wins came against top-50 ranked players, although Kwon did have some inspiring matches against top level opponents throughout the first half of the year.

He has shown an ability to battle against far superior opponents. Kwon was able to take a set by a 6-2 margin against Alcaraz during the Spaniard’s mesmerizing title run in the Barcelona Open.

Kwon has also played three matches this year against Andrey Rublev, and he was able to steal a set in two of them.

Knowing he can win sets against top ranked opponents should give him some much needed confidence heading into his match against the all-time great Novak Djokovic.

Kwon’s best weapon in this match will be his wide serve. Kwon boasts a 70% point win percentage on wide serves on the deuce side, and a very impressive 78% point win percentage on wide serves on the ad-side.

Djokovic has his lowest return percentages on both sides of the court against wide serves, so we could see Kwon hold his serve more times than expected if he can find his serve early on.

The biggest concern for Kwon is his lack of ATP experience on grass courts. In his five-year professional career, Kwon has only played 10 ATP-level matches on grass surface.

He is a respectable 5-5 over these matches, however three of these wins came against players ranked well outside of the top-100.

Kwon’s most recent match on grass came earlier this month against a similarly ranked opponent, Hugo Gaston. Kwon put up a rough performance, losing 6-2 6-1 in straight sets.

If Kwon wants to make this a respectable match, he needs to come out with a hot serve and go for winners early in rallies rather than letting Djokovic get in a  rhythm with his groundstrokes.

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Djokovic’s Consistency Too Strong

What Djokovic has done in his career at Wimbledon already gives him a solid claim to be the greatest Wimbledon player of all time. He rivals Roger Federer for that claim.

With that being said, the pressure that rides on Djokovic’s shoulders to bring home a title this year is unparalleled to any of the years past.

This first round match up should not prove too difficult for Djokovic to surpass, however it’s not a match he can simply overlook.

In Kwon and Djokovic’s one previous meeting, Djokovic won 6-1 6-3 in straight sets.

If Kwon fails to get to the net early on in rallies, then Djokovic is going to have a field day bludgeoning deep backhands to push Kwon into the corner of the court, setting up easy winners.

If Kwon can’t use his serve to get an advantage to start the point, then Djokovic’s consistency and placement will have Kwon running all over the court just to hold his serve.

The break points could come early and often in this match during Kwon’s service games. If Kwon’s confidence waivers within the first set, we could see Novak cruise to a very commanding victory without breaking much of a sweat.

Grass courts have been Djokovic’s best friend throughout his career, and an inexperienced grass player such as Kwon is a perfect opportunity for Djokovic to start his anticipated title run with a hot start.

Betting Value

I believe this is a great spot for Djokovic to take care of business.

The spread of -9.5 games for Djokovic is definitely a steep one, however it’s not something I’m against taking. I also believe the under of 27.5 games has value to it as well, although neither of these are the official pick I’m going with.

The safest and most valuable play on the board for this match is the Djokovic total games u18.5.

This would require holding Kwon to under 4 games in all three sets that Djokovic presumably wins, doing so in straights.

Doing so is much more manageable than what would be necessary to cover the 9.5 game spread, or even to keep the total under 27.5 games.

However, if this bet is not available on your book, I have no issue taking Djokovic’s spread and/or the total games under. This should be a very entertaining run to watch throughout this tournament, and a hot start can go a long way.

Pick: Djokovic Total Games u18.5 (-126)

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