Ons Jabeur vs. Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Predictions (July 5)

Ons Jabeur vs. Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Predictions (July 5) article feature image

Frey/Getty. Pictured: Ons Jabeur.

  • Ons Jabeur is favored to beat Marie Bouzkova in the Wimbledon quarterfinals.
  • The new tournament favorite faces a different level of pressure than she had before.
  • See how Avery Zimmerman believes the match will play out.

Jabeur vs. Bouzkova Odds

Jabeur Odds-375
Bouzkova Odds+290
Time | How to Watch11:30 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

Ons Jabeur became the new favorite to win Wimbledon following Iga Swiatek's loss, and her second test after getting that honor is a meeting with the ever-solid Marie Bouzkova.

The Czech has come through a number of tough players, including Alison Riske, Caroline Garcia, Ann Li and Danielle Collins.

Let's dive into where the betting value lies in this quarterfinal clash.

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Jabeur Looking To Excel In Uncharted Waters

Despite the ascent of the Tunisian, she hasn't played the role of favorite just yet.

After winning the Madrid Masters, it became apparent that Jabeur was one of the most in-form players in the world. A run to the Italian Open final the week after ensured that Jabeur would enter the French Open as the second-favorite to Swiatek.

However, at the clay-court slam, Jabeur wasn't able to deliver on expectations, falling in the first round to Magda Linette.

She recovered in her first grass-court event to win the Berlin title, and once again, she came into Wimbledon as the second-favorite for the event. This time around, she's looked like a real contender, and with Swiatek's loss, she's the favorite.

That's a new place for her, and she showed some signs of weakness against Elise Mertens before gutting out a tough 7-6, 6-4 win.

Stylistically, grass is a natural fit for Jabeur. She loves to utilize a cutting slice backhand and high-quality drop shots, and Jabeur also plays fairly flat strokes that stay low to the ground.

Jabeur is a ridiculous 61-17 in her career on grass, and she's 19-2 over the past two years.

How well she'll be able to maintain her best level with the pressure on will be interesting to watch.

Bouzkova Playing Mistake-Free Tennis

It's been a near-flawless run to the quarters for Bouzkova, who has dropped just one set along the way. It was the first set played in her first round against Collins.

Since then, Bouzkova hasn't even been to a tiebreaker in eight consecutive sets won.

She's been playing sound tennis that is punctuated by a relentless ability to get balls back in the court. The counter-striking ability that she possesses is particularly frustrating on grass, as she's able to find more aggressive shots from weaker positions.

It allows Bouzkova to be a threat in a majority of the points she plays, and she isn't often going to miss attacking balls either. Over her last three matches, Bouzkova hasn't had worse than a two-to-one winner-to-unforced error ratio.

Grass hasn't traditionally been Bouzkova's best surface — as she was 12-12 in her career on grass prior to this Wimbledon event — but she's learned how to use her unique skills to her advantage.

Betting Value

This is an extremely fascinating clash of styles that is likely going to allow both players to rely on their traditional tactics.

Bouzkova will be happy to concede some space on the court and allow Jabeur to rip away, but the Tunisian will need to be mindful of the risks that over-hitting contains.

If she starts pressing too much, the threat of unforced errors and allowing Bouzkova defensive patterns could become emphasized.

For Bouzkova, if she concedes too much space or if she allows Jabeur to find a rhythm, then the variety that Jabeur plays could become a big issue.

The Czech has won 65% or more of her first serve points in each prior match, keeping her first serve percentage above 69% in each. However, she's also won 50% or more of her second serve points, highlighting the dominance she's had in rallies.

If she opens up at a high level, things could get nervy for the favorite, and while the tools in Jabeur's game should make her the favorite, I don't expect this to be a clear-cut match.

Pick: Bouzkova +4.5 games (-102 via FanDuel)

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