Saturday US Open Analysis & Betting Predictions: Bencic Will Stifle Pliskova’s Game (September 3)
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Karolina Pliskova and Belinda Bencic.
The third round continues of the US Open continues on Saturday with more exciting matches!
And I’ve found betting value on two matches on Saturday’s order of play.
Read on for my best bets and previews.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Danielle Collins (-164) vs. Alize Cornet (+136)
9 p.m. ET
Danielle Collins continued to blast through her draw, defeating Cristina Bucsa 6-2, 7-5 in the second round.
Collins won 82% of her first-serve points and hit 28 winners compared to 17 unforced errors. She also won 49% of her return points, including 68% on Bucsa’s second serve. This allowed Collins to break five times.
Collins has come back from her injury break with a vengeance, not dropping a set in wins over Naomi Osaka and Bucsa. Collins is now 11-3 on hard courts this season, playing with controlled aggression from the baseline to rip through her opposition. The American’s strength is her backhand, which can dominate from the baseline and put opponents in defensive positions.
However, Collins’ first serve and ability to dictate play with her forehand, as well, are important to her success.
Alize Cornet gutted out a tough 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 victory over Katerina Siniakova to make the third round. Cornet’s first serve was vital to her success, winning 80% of her first-serve points. The Frenchwoman also effectively attack Siniakova’s second serve, as she won 61% of her second-serve return points.
Cornet had heat-related medical issues against Siniakova, but if she’s feeling better, her scrambling and improvisation skills during points are amongst the best in the world. Cornet can also ramp up the pace on her backhand when given the opportunity and can effectively counterpunch.
These two played at the Australian Open this season, with Collins overpowering Cornet 7-5, 6-1. I see this match playing out similarly. Collins’ strength (her backhand) is better than Cornet’s strength (her backhand) and she will be able to overpower the Frenchwoman from this wing.
Collins will control the baseline and drag Cornet around the court. Cornet, who is already physically weary, will have to do a lot of defensive work in this match.
Collins’ overall Elo Rating is 130.4 points better than Cornet’s and her hard-court Elo is 190.2 points better than the Frenchwoman’s.
Pick: Collins -2.5 Games (-118 via FanDuel)
Belinda Bencic (-125) vs. Karolina Pliskova (+100)
3 p.m. ET
Belinda Bencic was 3-6, *3-5 down against Sorana Cirstea in the second round, but came back to win 3-6, 7-5, 6-2. Bencic won 74% of her first-serve points and hit 32 winners versus 28 unforced errors. The Swiss also won 64% of her second-serve return points and generated 18 break points.
Bencic is now 14-8 on hard courts for the season and 216-117 in her career on the surface. She holds onto the baseline very well, dictating play with both wings. A strength of Bencic’s game is her ability to absorb power and then direct it into precise locations on the court. At times, however, Bencic can spray batches of unforced errors.
Karolina Pliskova defeated Marie Bouzkova 6-3, 6-2 to advance to the third round. Pliskova won 90% of her first-serve points and wasn’t broken all match, hitting 23 winners versus 15 unforced errors. On return, she won 60% of her second-serve return points.
Pliskova is now 8-3 during the summer hard-court swing and is an impressive 364-191 in her career on hard courts. Pliskova has a massive serve and tries to take the initiative during rallies. Pliskova is solid from both wings and can place the ball into small windows. The Czech, though, is not the best mover and can become erratic at times.
Bouzkova was not completely healthy against Pliskova, however, so one can’t draw too many conclusions from that match.
Pliskova won’t be able to push Bencic around the baseline much at all and the Swiss also has the power to step up in the court and force Pliskova on the defensive.
Bencic has hit 61 winners so far in New York for a reason. She will stymie Pliskova’s power game, then move to work the Czech around the court.
Pick: Bencic ML (-125 via BetMGM)