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Sunday US Open Betting Predictions & Previews: Tomljanovic Won’t Capitalize on Serena Win (September 4)

Sunday US Open Betting Predictions & Previews: Tomljanovic Won’t Capitalize on Serena Win (September 4) article feature image
Credit:

Frey/Getty. Pictured: Ajla Tomljanovic.

  • Ajla Tomljanovic beat Serena Williams in her last US Open match.
  • Will she be able to follow that up with another win?
  • David Gertler has your round of 16 best bets and previews.

We are into the second week of the US Open and more exciting matches are on the horizon.

I’ve found betting value on two round-of-16 matches for Sunday’s order of play.

Read on for my best bets and previews.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.

Liudmilla Samsonova (-215) vs. Ajla Tomljanovic (+165)

4:15 p.m. ET

Liudmilla Samsonova is on a 13-match winning streak, most recently beating Aleksandra Krunic 6-3, 6-3 in the third round. Samsonova overpowered the weak Krunic serve, winning 50% of her return points. She also won 67% of her service points and was only broken once all match.

During Samsonova’s winning streak, she has only been broken 12 times and has now won 18 sets in a row. Samsonova is now 102-56 on hard courts in her career,  with her big serve and punishing groundstrokes working well on the surface.

Ajla Tomljanovic ended Serena Williams’ career in the third round, defeating the American 7-5, 6-7(4), 6-1. Tomljanovic didn’t serve well, winning only 55% of her service points, but she did win 48% of her return points and broke eight times. Tomljanovic was particularly effective on Williams’ second serve, winning 64% of her second-serve return points.

Tomljanovic’s win over Williams was very emotional, so it will be interesting to see how she responds. The Aussie is a competent player on hard courts, with a 220-167 record as a professional.

There’s nothing Tomljanovic does that’s particularly special, but she takes advantage of the openings that present themselves and has a high rally tolerance. The problem is she can sometimes overhit when she feels she needs to do more with her groundstrokes.

Samsonova has been more reliable on serve this tournament, winning 72% of her service points compared to 56% for Tomljanovic. They have comparable return stats, so Samsonova’s ability to get ahead in points on her service games will be huge in this matchup.

Samsonova is confident, striking the ball very well, and should be able to dictate play.  While Tomljanovic got a set off of Samsonova in Washington, the Russian still would have covered the 3.5 games, and once she found her game in that match, she dominated from the baseline.

Combine all of that with the emotional letdown following Tomljanovic’s win over Williams? This should be a straightforward win for Samsonova.

Pick: Samsonova -3.5 Games (-110 via PointsBet)

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Coco Gauff (-350) vs. Shuai Zhang (+240)

2 pm. ET

Coco Gauff defeated Madison Keys 6-2, 6-3 to advance to the round of 16. Gauff won 69% of her first-serve points and even though Keys has a huge first serve, Gauff was still able to win 51% of her first-serve return points. She broke serve on five occasions.

The American is 8-3 during the summer hard-court swing and is 64-37 as a professional on hard. Gauff’s backhand is strong, playing with controlled aggression from that wing. Given her well-placed, high-velocity first serve, she can especially dominate with her backhand during her service games.

Gauff’s forehand is also holding up fairly well, but it’s still loopy, and she can still be rushed from this wing.

Shuai Zhang is playing the tennis of her life in New York, most recently beating Rebecca Marino 6-2, 6-4. Zhang won 69% of her service points and didn’t face a break point all match. On return, Zhang held the big-serving Canadian to 35% of her first-serve return points and broke three times.

Zhang is now 414-263 in her career on hard courts, including a 9-4 record during the summer hard-court swing. Her game is based on her big first serve, so she has greatly benefited from the quicker conditions in New York. From the baseline, Zhang plays an aggressive style, although she can overhit at times.

While Gauff comfortably beat Keys in her last match, Keys struggled from the baseline. Gauff’s forehand cannot be trusted and Zhang has the controlled aggression that Keys didn’t have to rush Gauff from this wing.

Given how Zhang is playing from the baseline, she should be able to dictate play more often than Keys did. Gauff will be forced into more defensive positions than she would like and will not be able to dominate with her backhand.

Pick: Zhang +1.5 Sets (-105 via BetMGM)

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