US Open Betting Pick & Prediction: Egor Gerasimov vs. Jordan Thompson (Wednesday , Sept. 2)

Credit:

Alex Gottschalk/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Egor Gerasimov.

Sep 02, 2020, 10:00 AM EDT
  • Jordan Thompson enters his Round 2 US Open match as a -134 favorite against Egor Gerasimov (+108).
  • Sean Zerillo previews the noon matchup, including where he's finding betting value.

US Open Odds: Egor Gerasimov vs. Jordan Thompson

Egor Gerasimov Odds +108 [Bet Now]
Jordan Thompson Odds -134 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 39.5 Games [Bet Now]
Time Wednesday, 12:20 p.m. ET

Odds as of Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


I’m admittedly no fan of Jordan Thompson.

And based upon hard court stats, I can make a fairly clear argument that Egor Gerasimov should be favored in their first career meeting:

Thompson defeated Stefano Travaglia in the first round as a -189 favorite while winning 54% of the points in the match. He converted on six of 21 break point opportunities and saved three of the five break points against him in a four-set win. 

The Australian mostly kept the ball in play (17 winners) and waited for Travaglia to make mistakes. The Italian was happy to oblige, hitting 55 unforced errors.

Gerasimov is coming off a statement win over Dusan Lajovic as a +120 underdog. His shot-making in the match was impressive (41 winners to 33 unforced errors) while winning 27 of his 35 net points, too.

The Belarusian showed a lot of versatility, whether slugging with precision from the baseline or moving forward with confidence:

Gerasimov won 53% of the points in the match, converted five of his 15 break opportunities, and saved two of the five break points against him.

Overall, players are mostly still rounding into form, and we have seen a number of five-set matches on the ATP side of the tournament.

Both Gerasimov and Thompson should have their respective moments on Wednesday — depending on the quality of their level at any given moment. Their rates of total points won, and combined service and return games won on hard courts are within a couple of percentage points; this should be a close battle.

As a result, I’m expecting this match to go four or five sets, and I made a small play on over 39.5 Games.

However, my primary play is on Gerasimov, who does have an edge in those metrics, and whose style will dictate the outcome of the match. I’m expecting him to have more stamina and variety throughout a five-set battle, too.

For his career, Gerasimov is 12-6 in five-set matches, while Thompson is 11-22.

The Bets

  • Egor Gerasimov +120 (1 unit)
  • Over 39.5 Games (-112, 0.5 units)

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