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US Open Odds & Predictions: Back Brooksby to Challenge Alcaraz on Ashe

US Open Odds & Predictions: Back Brooksby to Challenge Alcaraz on Ashe article feature image
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Tim Clayton-Corbis, Quality Sport Images/Getty. PIctured: Jenson Brooksby and Carlos Alcaraz.

  • A blockbuster Saturday awaits at the US Open.
  • Carlos Alcaraz takes on Jenson Brooksby while Frances Tiafoe meets with Diego Schwartzman.
  • Read on for Kenny Ducey's best bets and analysis.

The third round concludes on Saturday with some epic clashes, and the two best should involve some promising young American men.

While one is a favorite and a threat to make a deep run, don’t count out the other one pulling off an upset here.

Let’s get to some picks.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.

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Carlos Alcaraz (-450) vs. Jenson Brooksby (+330)

1:15 p.m. ET

This could wind up being the match of the tournament. On the one hand you have one of the most ruthless ball-strikers in the world at the moment in Alcaraz, who goes full-send, for lack of a better term, on every point.

On the other, you have a master strategist in Brooksby, who rarely makes a mistake and is brilliant at taking away his opponent’s best weapon. Both men are serious competitors, and neither one will relent.

Brooksby was one of the best players on tour last summer when we turned to hard courts, and after a rocky season where he had to try and figure out how to play on other surfaces, he’s back to looking like one of the tougher cookies to crack.

We have seen him defeat some of the best in the world on this surface from Stefanos Tsitsipas to Roberto Bautista Agut and he’s given others like Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev a serious run for their money.

I just think this price isn’t reflective of the player Brooksby truly is, and the level he’s gotten back to. He should be able to mix things up enough against Alcaraz to really throw him off of his game plan early, and with that I think he takes a set.

Brooksby’s incredible defense and reads should neutralize the power coming at him from the other side of the court enough to draw some critical errors, and with the tight nature of Alcaraz’s first two matches here in Queens I think the American could be live for an upset.

Pick: Brooksby +5.5 games (+100 via DraftKings)

Frances Tiafoe (-210) vs. Diego Schwartzman (+172)

2 p.m. ET

If you haven’t watched Diego Schwartzman’s first two matches here at the US Open, I can get you up to speed. He’s been even worse than I could have expected him to be considering he came in off a lousy hardcourt season which saw him lose to Albert Ramos-Vinolas at a Masters 1000.

Schwartzman was lucky to have advanced past Jack Sock, succumbing to the powerful serve and forehand of the American for two sets before the world No. 107 was forced to retire with an injury.

Then, he had to save 16-of-18 break points to survive a very out-of-form Alexei Popyrin. He was gifted point after point by the Aussie, and it seemed the match was very much on the underdog’s racquet.

I don’t think Schwartzman will be as lucky against  FrancisTiafoe, who is a special talent and someone who should win the battle at the net against Schwartzman — something the Argentine struggled with in both victories.

Tiafoe’s aggressive returning should also help him punish the weak serve of Schwartzman and finally send him packing from a tournament he should have left days ago.

Pick: Tiafoe -3.5 games (-120 via FanDuel)

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