Wednesday ATP Tennis Morning Odds and Best Bets for Erste Bank Open (Oct. 28)

Wednesday ATP Tennis Morning Odds and Best Bets for Erste Bank Open (Oct. 28) article feature image
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Credit: Al Bello, Getty. Diego Schwartzman hits a forehand at the 2021 U.S. Open.

Three of the top ten players in the ATP rankings will be taking the court on Wednesday in Vienna, highlighting yet another star-studded day of tennis.

Not only will some of the best players in the world be taking the the court, but there is also great depth in the slate. Nine members of the top 25 will be featured and not a single match on court will be without one.

Let’s get into how I’ll be playing one of the most high-quality tennis days of the year.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on watching tennis. 

Diego Schwartzman (-125) vs. Gael Monfils (+100)

8:00 a.m. ET

After a disappointing loss to Andrey Rublev in the Laver Cup, Schwartzman has found his game. The Argentinian has won multiple matches in all three of his prior tournaments, and he opened his account in Vienna with a sturdy two-set victory over Fabio Fognini.

Monfils has also found a decent level since a rough period earlier in the year. The Frenchman got by Lorenzo Musetti without facing a break point and his service statistics were highly impressive.

The 35 year-old hit nine aces and didn’t double fault once. He won 92% of the points behind his first serve and 70% of the points behind his second. In 23 games of tennis, Musetti only mustered nine points on return.

Though the numbers are unbelievable, they also aren’t sustainable. Particularly against a returner like Schwartzman, Monfils will be conceding far more points in service games than he did on Wednesday.

Added pressure will come from stressful service games, and while Monfils will also pressure the non-threatening Schwartzman serve, he’ll have to deal with his superb ball-striking.

While excelling in recent tournaments, Monfils hasn’t gotten by a player with the hitting capability of Schwartzman. Losses to Jannik Sinner, Pablo Carreno Busta and Alexander Zverev are indications that Monfils hasn’t entirely reached his best level just yet.

He’ll have to find that to beat Schwartzman.

Pick: Diego Schwartzman -125 via DraftKings

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Casper Ruud (-280) vs. Lorenzo Sonego (+210)

8:20 a.m. ET

Sonego hasn’t historically been able to get anything done against Ruud, but the Italian is a different player in Vienna.

In 2020, Sonego broke out to beat Novak Djokovic and put together a week in which he won five matches before losing to Rublev in the final. He opened up his campaign on Wednesday with a win over Dominik Koepfer.

Ruud has raised his hard court game a tremendous amount in the past two months. He has a 20-6 record on hard courts this year after a sub-.500 record in 2020. Nine of those wins have come since the beginning of September.

With this in mind, it’s no surprise that oddsmakers rate Ruud as a heavy favorite, but this won’t be an easy matchup against a player he has dominated in the past.

Sonego displayed against Koepfer that he’s bringing the same level of confidence to Vienna that he had in 2020. A strong mindset does wonders for his game, which can occasionally be filled with errors.

After a zero-double fault effort in a first round where he didn’t face a single break point, I’m comfortable projecting that Sonego could offer Ruud some real challenges.

His 200+ number is a very appealing proposition.

Pick: Lorenzo Sonego +210 via PointsBet

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