Wednesday ATP Tour Odds & Best Bets: Picks for Coria vs. Lajovic & Murray vs. Bublik (Feb. 9)
BSR Agency/Getty. Pictured: Andy Murray hits a backhand in training at the Rotterdam Open.
With 18 matches set to be played on Wednesday’s slate of ATP tennis, there are a few spots in which I believe there are solid edges to take advantage of.
Though the story of the day on Tuesday came from Juan Martin Del Potro beginning his (likely) retirement tour, there were plenty of fascinating upsets and matches to observe.
Stefanos Tsitsipas overcame a big push from Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in three sets while Jiri Lehecka pulled off a +450 win over Denis Shapovalov in Rotterdam.
We’ve got another great day of tennis ahead, and here are two matches that I’ll be betting.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Federico Coria (-120) vs. Dusan Lajovic (+100)
11:30 a.m. ET
This isn’t going to be the prettiest match of tennis, but it’s one that presents a solid edge.
Coria is a player that thrives in his home conditions of Argentina (and South America in general). Last year he fell to the two Argentinian golden swing champions in the Cerundolo brothers, but he competed well with each. Last week in Cordoba, Coria suffered a disappointing loss to Juan Pablo Ficovich, but he recovered in the first round here to defeat Pablo Cuevas.
He’s a player that thrives on clay, as his results show, but his Elo rating displays the depth of the contrast in his game (1688 on clay, 1336 on hard courts, 1257 on grass). That’s really as stark a gap as you’ll get on Tour.
Lajovic comes into this match having saved three match points against Benoit Paire, including this wild miss from the Frenchman, and though he’s obviously a more well-rounded player than the Argentine, he is about 25 points short of him in terms of Elo on clay and Coria just got to face a similar opponent in Cuevas.
His experience against a crafty one-handed backhand player should serve him well, and there’s a solid chance we could see a bit of service regression from the Serbian. In six matches down under on hard courts, Lajovic totaled 19 aces and 11 double faults in six matches while he hit four aces and no doubles against Paire.
Lajovic also took advantage of Paire’s seven double faults and 57 unforced errors, something he most certainly won’t get from Coria.
In a match where I project Coria far closer to -200 than -110, this price is very reasonable.
Pick: Coria -120 via FanDuel
Andy Murray (-145) vs. Alexander Bublik (+110)
1:30 p.m. ET
It wasn’t the run down under that Murray desired, but a final in Sydney and a second round at the Australian Open aren’t the worst achievements.
He comes to Rotterdam with a bit of rest under himself, unlike Bublik, who just won his first title in Montpellier rather stunningly, defeating Alexander Zverev in straight sets. While I’m not concerned about his ability to turn around in Rotterdam and maintain his form, it’s the court conditions which are most worrying for Bublik.
The ITF classifies the pace of the courts in Rotterdam as a three out of five, but there’s simply no chance that’s the reality of the tournament. Rallies have been elongated, serves have been limited, and power players have had trouble asserting themselves.
This was an issue in Rotterdam last year, and tournament director Richard Krajicek said the courts would play faster this year, but that doesn’t appear to be true.
That’s bad news for Bublik, who racked up over 10 aces per match in Montpellier. He also won over 80 percent of his first serve points, a key component to his game when firing.
It’ll be incredibly hard to replicate those numbers against a returner as good as Murray on courts these slow. Bublik has a sub-500 winning percentage on clay courts in each of his last four seasons, and while this isn’t clay, the speed makes it feel that way.
Murray is 8-0 in his career against John Isner, 1-0 against Reilly Opelka, 7-0 versus Ivo Karlovic and he beat Bublik in their only prior meeting. He enjoys facing big servers, and on this surface he shouldn’t have a problem making a high percentage of returns and getting longer points going.
I’m willing to pay the steep price on Murray here, though I wouldn’t push it past -155.
Pick: Murray -145 via BetMGM
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