Wimbledon 2022 Men’s Draw Odds, Futures Predictions, Analysis: Target Hurkacz & Cilic to Win Quarters
Thomas Starke/Getty. Pictured: Hubert Hurkacz.
As the dust has settled on the French Open from Roland Garros, the tennis world gets right back to it as Wimbledon takes center stage for the next two weeks.
With plenty of top players missing from the men’s draw because of the Lawn Tennis Association’s decision to exclude Russian and Belarusian players from The Championships for the 2022 edition, each quarter has fewer obstacles for the top names in the sport.
Let’s take a look at some of the best bets from an outright perspective in the men’s draw.
Hubert Hurkacz to win Quarter 2 (+200 via FanDuel)
With the top half appearing to be relatively chalky, backing the big-serving Hubert Hurkacz to take down the second quarter looks to be a decent bet at +200.
He has the form one would hope to see, having taken down one of the two biggest tuneup events leading into Wimbledon in Halle.
Hurkacz’s path to the title was no cake walk either. He defeated the defending champion in Ugo Humbert and a pair of tough customers on the grass in Felix Auger Aliassime and Nick Kyrgios.
The Pole finished off the tournament in style as well with a convincing victory against world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev. There’s no denying the Hurkacz is battle-tested entering The Championships.
He’s also had success here before. Hurkacz managed to reach the semifinals at Wimbledon last season, scoring a pair of second-week wins against Daniil Medvedev and Roger Federer, before falling to Matteo Berrettini in four sets.
With arguably less pressure this season – seeing as there is already no way to defend his points he accrued in 2021 – Hurkacz should be able to navigate his draw for a handful of wins again this year.
His draw is also relatively favorable, as the other high seed in his quarter is clay-court aficionado Casper Ruud. While the Norwegian’s serve has been better this year, quicker and lower-bouncing courts don’t suit his style well.
Other than Ruud, the sternest tests feature players with relatively vulnerable serves on grass (Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe, Cameron Norrie) or talented players with fitness and/or consistency issues (Jiri Vesely, Grigor Dimitrov).
With Hurkacz in form, having shown he can succeed at Wimbledon in years prior and with a lovely draw, I’m comfortable taking him at +200 to win the second quarter.
Marin Cilic to win Quarter 4 (+600 via FanDuel)
If there is one quarter to look for a bit of a cheaper-priced player to back, it’s the fourth.
The favorite Rafael Nadal has not had tour-level grass-court action in several years. It is worth noting that he played a few warmup matches at the Hurlingham exhibition, but that isn’t a tour-level event.
Felix Auger Aliassime has a tough draw (more on that in a minute), so Cilic is an intriguing player to get behind.
Cilic is a well-established player on grass. His serve and power oriented game works really well on the surface. Cilic has amassed several grass-court titles in his career, with plenty of other finals and has reached the final at Wimbledon in his career as well.
He was also a set from reaching the second week a year ago, losing from two sets up against Medvedev in the third round.
Cilic’s form entering the tournament consists of a run to the semifinals at the French Open – on a surface that doesn’t typically suit him – and a semifinal run at Queen’s Club. His loss to Filip Krajinovic was certainly a shock, but that seems more of a hiccup than a trend.
The Croatian checks all the boxes one would want to see when looking for someone to back in the outright market in terms of comfort on surface, draw and form.
Stay Away From: Felix Auger-Aliassime
Of all the favorites to stay away from in the men’s draw, last year’s quarterfinalist Auger-Aliassime has the toughest road forward of the bunch.
For starters, he takes on the massive serving American Maxime Cressy. Cressy’s unorthodox serve-and-volley style is extremely tough to deal with on grass.
It doesn’t get easier from there, either. The Canadian could play Jack Sock – whose serve, forehand and doubles prowess could all help him keep things close – in the second round before facing Dan Evans – who possesses one of the better backhand slices on tour – in the third.
That’s all without mentioning a potential clash with Taylor Fritz (who has finally found some form post-Indian Wells in his lead-up tournament) to open the second week. Oh yeah, and then a certain Rafael Nadal awaits in the quarters.
Auger-Aliassime very well may repeat last year’s run at SW19, but his path to do so is littered with tough opposition. Stay away from his futures.
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