WTA Finals Tennis Picks, Predictions: Swiatek Will Make Quick Work of Kasatkina (November 1)
Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Iga Swiatek.
The WTA Finals are off to an amazing start and the hard courts of Fort Worth host more exciting action on Tuesday.
And the good news for us is that I’ve found more value on both of Tuesday’s matches.
Read on for my best bets and predictions!
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Iga Swiatek (-600) vs. Daria Kasatkina (+370)
6 p.m. ET
Iga Swiatek won the title in San Diego during her most recent tournament, defeating Donna Vekic 6-3, 3-6, 6-0 in the final. Swiatek won 74% of her service points and only got broken once. In addition, the Pole won 61% of her second-serve return points.
Swiatek’s opponents don’t have an answer for the power and heaviness from her forehand. However, this season, Swiatek has turned her backhand into a weapon as well.
Daria Kasatkina was disappointing in her most recent tournament in Guadalajara, falling 2-6, 6-2, 3-6 to Anna Kalinskaya. Kasatkina won just 50% of her service points, including just 51% of her first-serve points. This allowed Kalinskaya to break on seven occasions.
But, Kasatkina has still gone 40-20 overall in 2022, including 24-13 on hard courts. The Russian’s placement is amongst the best on the WTA Tour. Her heavy forehand is particularly potent and she has excellent variety. However, Kasatkina has very little power to her game.
These two have played four times this season, with Kasatkina failing to win more than five games in any of them. Kasatkina has no way to hurt Swiatek.
The Pole punishes Kasatkina’s weaker serves and has both the rally tolerance and speed to hang with Kasatkina in longer rallies. But, unlike Kasatkina, when Swiatek can effectively pull the trigger and overpower her opposition. Kasatkina’s forehand is strong, but it doesn’t hold a candle to Swiatek’s forehand.
Swiatek’s overall Elo rating is 257.6 points better than Kasatkina’s and her hard-court Elo is 266.4 points better than the Russian’s.
Pick: Under 19.5 Games (-115 via FanDuel)
Coco Gauff (-170) vs. Caroline Garcia (+130)
8 p.m. ET
Coco Gauff made the quarterfinals of Guadalajara, but fell in three sets to Victoria Azarenka, 6-7(2), 6-4, 3-6. Gauff won just 38% of her second-serve points and was broken five times in the match. However, she did win 54% of Azarenka’s second-serve points and broke on five occasions.
She has had a strong season, making the French Open final and going 38-19 overall on the year. On hard courts, Gauff went 23-13 and played consistently at a high level. Gauff has a powerful backhand that controls the baseline.
Caroline Garcia, after playing excellent tennis for much of the second half of the season, has cooled down recently, losing four of her last five matches. Most recently, she fell 6-7(6), 5-7 to Sloane Stephens in Guadalajara. While Garcia won 70% of her first serves, she only won 39% of her second serves, and 30% of her return points.
This season, Garcia won three WTA-Tour titles, had a 41-19 overall record, and a 20-13 hard-court mark, even making the semifinals of the US Open. But, that semifinal loss to Ons Jabeur started a downward stretch for Garcia which included losing her coach in what appears to be a distracting, ugly situation.
With that said, Garcia’s first serve and all-out aggression from the baseline, particularly with her forehand, are tough to handle when she’s playing well. However, there are stretches where Garcia can become erratic from the baseline, especially with her backhand.
Garcia seems to be slowly reverting back to her inconsistent play. I don’t trust her backhand to hold up in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges. And, given how often Garcia has pulled the trigger too early with her forehand lately, I don’t trust that side to hold up either.
Combine this with Garcia’s off-court mess, and I expect Gauff to have a fairly comfortable victory in front of the home crowd.
Pick: Gauff -2.5 Games (-114 via FanDuel)