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WTA Guadalajara Tennis Picks, Predictions: Keys Will Hit Through Linette From the Baseline (October 18)

WTA Guadalajara Tennis Picks, Predictions: Keys Will Hit Through Linette From the Baseline (October 18) article feature image

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Madison Keys.

WTA Guadalajara is off and running, with spectacular matches dotting Monday's order of play. Tuesday's matches should continue to excite and present value for bettors to exploit.

Read on for my odds analysis and prediction!

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.

Madison Keys (-315) vs. Magda Linette (+250)

1:30 p.m. ET

Madison Keys reached the San Diego (hard) quarterfinals last week, but ultimately fell 4-6, 5-7 to Jessica Pegula. On return, while Keys won 53% of her second-serve returns, she won only 23% of her first-serve returns, breaking serve just once. On her own serve, Keys won just 50% of her second serves.

Keys had a big win over World No. 11 Daria Kasatkina in the Round of 16 and was striking the ball very well last week. While sometimes prone to overhitting, Keys has a big serve and easy power from the baseline. From the first shot in a rally, the American looks to take control and put her opponents on the defensive.

And this aggressive mindset has led, in part, to Keys' 28-18 overall record in 2022 — including a 23-13 record on hard courts.

Magda Linette has lost her last three matches, most recently falling to  Xinyu Wang 2-6, 4-6 in Cluj-Napoca (hard). Linette won just 54% of her service points, including 42% on her second serve, getting broken on four occasions. Wang, on the other hand, was broken only once.

Despite her recent losing streak (all on hard), Linette is now 20-16 for the year on hard courts and 248-180 as a professional on the surface. When Linette is performing well, she plays with controlled aggression and hits with consistent depth. However, in recent weeks, the Pole has looked sluggish and more inconsistent with her groundstrokes.

In this matchup, Keys' first serve should be effective and — from the baseline — Linette will be forced into much more defensive positions than she wants.

Linette doesn't have the power to push Keys around, while the American will keep Linette scrambling before finding her chance to inject pace within a rally. Also, Linette has not defended particularly well in recent weeks, which is worrisome for this matchup.

Keys' overall Elo rating is  155 points better than Linette's and her hard-court Elo is 151 points better than the Pole's.

Pick: Keys 2-0 in Sets  (-110 via FanDuel)

Donna Vekic (-2000) vs. Laura Pigossi(+825)

3 p.m. ET

Donna Vekic came through qualifying to reach the final of San Diego before ultimately losing 3-6, 6-3, 0-6 to World No. 1 Iga Swiatek. The loss to Swiatek was the first time of the week that any opponent had won at least 45% of their second serves against Vekic's aggressive return game. The Croat broke 30 times in the six matches leading into the final.

Vekic's game came together in San Diego, as she beat tough opposition such as Aryna Sabalenka and Danielle Collins. While in earlier matches this season, Vekic was too erratic — she played with controlled aggression throughout her run in southern California. She was relentlessly aggressive from the baseline, consistently moving her opponents around the court without providing cheap errors to the opposition.

Laura Pigossi is a lucky loser in the Guadalajara main draw, having lost 2-6, 4-6 to Asia Muhammad in the final qualifying round. Pigossi was broken four times in that match, winning just 49% of her service points. In addition, Pigossi won just 23% of her first-serve returns and broke serve just once.

Pigossi is just 5-10 this season on hard courts and 23-26 on the season overall. With her rally tolerance, fitness, and heavy forehand, the Brazilian is at her best on clay courts. On hard courts, she is often overwhelmed by the power of her opponents, and her groundstrokes sit up too much during rallies (as opposed to cutting through the court).

Fatigue is a concern for Vekic, but Pigossi doesn't hit through the court well, so Vekic will be able to dictate play from the baseline and force Pigossi to be the one on the move.

Pigossi's variety is fine, but nothing she does could really hurt the Croat. The Brazilian's depth is also lacking, which is problematic, given that Vekic is effective in taking advantage of short balls.

Finally, Vekic's overall Elo is 354.9 points better than Pigossi's, and the Croat's hard-court Elo is 445 points better than the Brazilian's.

Pick: Vekic -6.5 Games (-135 via PointsBet)

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