WNBA Odds, Picks: Best Bets for Aces vs Sparks (July 12)
Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Nneka Ogwumike.
With the spotlight to itself, the WNBA gives bettors a loaded five-game slate on Wednesday. It's so loaded it demanded two best bet articles!
Hopefully you read the first article, as the Wings and Elizabeth Williams killed it for us — though Kelsey Mitchell couldn't even make it a clean sweep.
Now, we turn our eyes to the late games — Storm vs. Dream and Aces vs. Sparks — on Wednesday, both of which include one team playing a back-to-back.
WNBA Odds & Picks
Click on game to skip ahead
| Matchup | Time |
| Storm vs. Dream | 7 p.m. ET |
| Aces vs. Sparks | 10 p.m. ET |
Storm vs. Dream Odds
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 170.5 -110 / -110 | +390 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -114 | 170.5 -110 / -110 | -550 |
This game opened Dream -6, but quickly got bet up to where it is now, around -8.5. The Storm played on Tuesday night and just missed a backdoor cover, storming back from down 25 at one point to lose by "just" seven.
The Storm have lost six straight, and they face a stiff test in a Dream team that is on the other end of the spectrum, having won five in a row.
This has a chance to be a fast-paced game — the Dream rank first in pace and the Storm fourth — as long as Seattle isn't too fatigued.
When this number came out, I jumped on the over, and the market has moved the other way, likely due to pace typically dropping in those games. As such, I still want to target a weary Storm team ready to get to the break, and I'll be betting the Dream team total over 89.5.
The Dream have reached 90 points three times during their winning streak, and the Storm give up more points per game than any team (other than the Dream). Atlanta's offense can be high variance, so I'm looking at their alt team totals as well; I will sprinkle a bit on Dream over 96.5.
Bet: Dream Team Total Over 89.5; Over 96.5 (+240; Caesars).
Aces vs. Sparks Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -118 | 169.5 -110 / -110 | -1300 |
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -104 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | +730 |
No team is ready for the All-Star Break more than the Sparks, who have been walking wounded over the first half of the WNBA season. Per Lucas Seehafer's Injury Tracker, their 61 games lost to injury easily lead the WNBA. Head coach Curt Miller has had a monumental task, digging deep into his bench just to maintain a full roster.
That being said, I actually am going to be looking to the Sparks for our "best bet lean." (I typically don't include leans in my articles, but on a day the WNBA is front and center, I want to get a play in for each game. I like these bets, just at a half-unit.)
Both the Aces and Sparks have been far better at home this season. When factoring in the game being the second half of a back-t0-back for the Aces, the five-point spread the books have hung in the first quarter starts to look a little juicy.
Books tend not to evenly disperse their spreads to each quarter, especially in double-digit games, because the (correct) idea is that good teams tend to get out to big leads and then tread water instead of maintaining that same pace all game.
However, the Sparks have been competent in the first quarter this season — it has been the second quarter in which the Aces have typically made their first-half moves.
As such, I'm grabbing the Sparks +5 in the first quarter and would play it down to +4.5.
Bet: Sparks First Quarter +5 (DraftKings) | Play to +4.5.
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