The NBA postseason action continues this Tuesday, April 28, with three pivotal matchups scheduled to shake up the bracket. Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has been on a tear to start the playoffs, with a record of 11-3 on his prop bets thus far.
Let's dive into the data-driven breakdown of his NBA Props for Jayson Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Scoot Henderson as we look to keep the momentum rolling tonight.
NBA Props Tonight: Tuesday, April 28
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
76ers vs. Celtics Prop: Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum Under 6.5 Assists (+114)
Tatum has cleared this in all four games of the series, averaging 8.3 assists per game, but my Pass Mix analysis has him closer to 5.8 expected per game.
That already bakes in his pretty significant increase in pass rate this series, which makes sense in a playoff setting with Tatum handling the ball more. Even after accounting for that, he’s still running hot in both potential assist rate and conversion rate.
Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, and Neemias Queta have all been converting at unsustainably high rates off Tatum passes. Maybe it continues and he gets to 7+ again, but we’ve reached the point where the market feels inflated, I’d imagine 99% of the action has been on the over, and I’m willing to bite on the +116.
I project him closer to 6.2 assists with around a 57% chance to stay under, with 6 assists his most likely outcome.
Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 6.5 Assists (+114)
Hawks vs. Knicks Prop: Karl-Anthony Towns
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 3.5 Assists (-108)
Game log truthers should be all over KAT’s over after he’s cleared this in 3 of 4 games this series, including a 10-assist explosion last game.
And yes, KAT always has the potential to rip off a huge assist game. But if you look at the 16 times he’s posted 6+ assists over the past two seasons, he’s averaged just 3.6 assists in the following game. Even KAT isn’t exempt from the laws of regression.
A lot of his assists in Game 4 came on cuts to OG and Clarkson finishing high-% looks at the rim, so it’s not like he’s luck boxed his way into 20 assists on 23 potential assists. But his potential assist rate is way up while his actual pass rate is down, which is usually a strong regression signal.
That could be helped along if the Hawks adjust and specifically take away some of the passing lanes he exploited last game.
My Pass Mix analysis has him at just 11.3 expected assists for the series, 2.8 per game. My actual projection is a bit more bullish at 3.3 tonight, but still gives him a 58% chance to stay under 3.5.
This is another prop where I’d guess almost all the action is on the over. KAT can absolutely clear 4+ again, but I’m betting regression shows up sooner than later.
Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Under 3.5 Assists (-108)
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Prop: Scoot Henderson
Scoot Henderson Over 2.5 Assists (-135)
This feels a lot like Jokic’s over last night. Doesn’t mean Scoot is about to go for 16 assists (what a sweat free cash last night lol), but he’s a ridiculous buy-low right now.
His teammates are both passing up shots and missing shots off his passes at an unsustainable rate. Deni Avdija, Jrue Holiday, and Robert Williams have specifically let him down the most. Wouldn’t be surprising if one or two of those guys simply take more shots or convert more of them tonight.
The main concern is his pass rate has dipped in the series, but my Pass Mix analysis already accounts for that and still has him at 3.4 expected assists per game through 4 games (nearly 2 more than his current series average at 1.5).
That’s why this feels like a market that may have bottomed out and a great time to buy low.
I project him closer to 3.2 assists with around a 62% chance to clear 2.5.
Pick: Scoot Henderson Over 2.5 Assists (-135)
