Here's my favorite player prop for today's Dodgers vs Rays game on Wednesday, June 17.
Dodgers vs Rays Props
Shane is continuing his comeback season after missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery and then most of 2025 with a nerve issue in his triceps. While he hasn't fully regained the elite strikeout upside he had pre-injury, he's still been very effective overall and owns a solid 24.6% strikeout rate through 13 starts.
The problem is his recent results haven't really matched the underlying metrics, making him a bit of a sell-high candidate right now. While his actual strikeout rate over his past three starts is 24.6%, my adjusted strikeout rate puts him at just 17.4% over that span.
Part of that is schedule-driven. My adjusted strikeout rate accounts for opponent strength, and McClanahan has benefited from a very favorable run of lineups recently, facing the Angels and Orioles in four of his past five starts. Both rank among the four highest strikeout-rate teams in baseball, so he's been getting a significant boost from the opponents he's faced.
The bigger concern is that hitters have suddenly started making a lot more contact when he throws strikes. His zone contact rate has jumped to 89% over his past three starts after sitting at 81% across his previous 10. That's one of the cleaner, more predictive strikeout indicators because it strips away a lot of the noise tied to chase rates and sequencing. When hitters are consistently making contact in the zone, strikeout upside naturally starts to disappear.
Now he draws one of the toughest lineups in baseball to strike out. The Dodgers become even more difficult with Ohtani pitching rather than hitting, and their lineup construction also works against Shane. Los Angeles has tucked its two best strikeout victims into the 8-9 spots, making it much harder for him to rack up Ks before reaching his likely stopping point.
I have his most likely final batter faced occurring around the 4-5 hitters' third trip through the order, meaning there's a good chance he doesn't even see those bottom-of-the-order bats a third time.
I'm projecting him closer to -165 to stay under 4.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Shane McClanahan Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-103)
