The NBA postseason action continues this Tuesday, April 5, with a pair of pivotal Game 1s scheduled to shake up the bracket. Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, is targeting assist props in both of tonight's contests.
Let's dive into the data-driven breakdown of his NBA Props for Cade Cunningham and Chet Holmgren as we look to keep the momentum rolling today.
NBA Props Tonight: Tuesday, April 5
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Assist Prop
Cade Cunningham Over 9.5 Assists (-106)
Cade Cunningham only averaged 7.1 assists per game and cleared this number just twice in the 7-game series vs. Orlando, but the underlying Pass Mix data tells a very different story. I had him closer to ~9.9 expected assists per game.
His pass rate was down, mostly because he took on more scoring responsibility, his potential assist rate dipped, and his teammates shot just 39% on his potential assists. That’s the biggest driver here.
Duncan Robinson in particular let him down. He converted just 7 of Cade’s potential assists, but I had that closer to 13.7 expected over the series.
So we’re getting a combination of depressed pass volume, suppressed conversion, and lower-than-usual potential assist rate, all of which are candidates to bounce back.
I’m expecting regression across all three areas in Game 1. On top of that, I have the Pistons projected for ~3 more team assists than their series average vs. Orlando, which further boosts Cade’s ceiling.
This sets up as a strong buy-low spot for him to get back into the 10+ range.
Pick: Cade Cunningham Over 9.5 Assists (-106)
Lakers vs. Thunder Assist Prop
Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Assists (-114)
Chet Holmgren deserves a number this low. Just 8.7% of his passes this season have led to potential assists, one of the lowest rates among qualified players. A lot of his passes are simply outlet passes after rebounds or inbounds, he’s not typically creating shots.
His pass rate dipped in the series vs. Phoenix, but he still cleared this in 2 of 4 games thanks to teammates shooting 50% from 3 on his passes. He basically needs everything to line up and his teammates to run hot specifically off his passes to get there.
I’m also projecting the Thunder for around 3 fewer team assists tonight compared to last series, which quietly dings everyone’s assist projection. It’s more of a team-wide sell-high spot.
There’s also some blowout risk baked in.
I have him closer to 1.3 assists with about a 59% chance to stay under 1.5. Fading a number this low on a player with his minutes is always a little uncomfortable, but he can go long stretches without picking one up. He had 0 total assists in the first two games last series.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 1.5 Assists (-114)
