Top Rank Boxing Best Bets: Our Favorite Props for Lomachenko vs. Lopez (Saturday, Oct. 17)
Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured: Vasiliy Lomachenko at Madison Square Garden in 2018.
- Lightweight champions Vasiliy Lomachenko and Teofimo Lopez meet Saturday night in a unified championship fight for the WBO, WBA and IBF title belts.
- Lomachenko is the heavy favorite at -400, but where is the value is this matchup?
- Our experts break down how they're betting tonight’s championship bout below.
Top Rank Boxing is back with a major fight on Saturday. Lightweight champions Vasiliy Lomachenko and Teofimo Lopez face off in a unified championship fight for the WBO, WBA and IBF title belts. Lomachenko (14-1) enters the fight as a heavy -400 favorite, while Lopez (15-0) is a +300 underdog.
So, where’s the value? Our staff is here to break down their favorite boxing bets for tonight’s championship matchup.
Lomachenko vs. Lopez Odds
|Win by KO/TKO||+200 [Bet Now]||+500 [Bet Now]|
|Win by Decision||-110 [Bet Now]||+900 [Bet Now]|
|Draw||+2000 [Bet Now]||+2000 [Bet Now]|
|Win in Rounds 1-3||+1400 [Bet Now]||+2200 [Bet Now]|
|Win in Rounds 4-6||+900 [Bet Now]||+1600 [Bet Now]|
|Win in Rounds 7-9||+800 [Bet Now]||+1800 [Bet Now]|
|Win in Rounds 10-12||+1100 [Bet Now]||+1000 [Bet Now]|
|Total Rounds 10.5||Over (-200) [Bet Now]||Under (+150) [Bet Now]|
Lomachenko vs. Lopez Betting Picks
Raheem Palmer: Lomachenko by Decision
This fight feels reminiscent of the 2012 matchup between Canelo Alvarez vs. Floyd Mayweather Jr. in which a young and green fighter is schooled and outclassed by the slick and savvy veteran. In this case you have 23-year-old Teofimo Lopez with just 15 fights matched up against a two-time Olympic Gold medalist and Ring Magazine’s No. 2 ranked pound-for-pound best boxer in the world in Vasiliy Lomachenko.
Similar to Canelo, Lopez comes into this fight with the perception of being a live dog, he’s younger, more athletic, bigger, has the reach advantage and packs a big punch. With 12 of his 15 fights ending in a knockout, why couldn’t this one be any different?
Lopez certainly has a puncher’s chance and many will cite his second round knockout win against Richard Commey as well as Lomachenko being knocked down by Jorge Linares in 2018. Still, Lomachenko is not only the more experienced fighter, he’s more skilled as well.
Lopez hasn’t faced the caliber of fighters that Lomachenko has faced such as Nicholas Walters, Guillermo Rigondeaux and Jose Pedraza. Styles make fights but you could argue that Lomachenko has faced several fighters who are better than Lopez.
Teofimo’s fight against Masayoshi Nakatani may serve as an example for some of the struggles he could face against Lomachenko given the amount of flush shots he took and overall difficulty he’s faced throughout the fight.
This is a fight in which we could actually see the smaller fighter in Lomachenko as the aggressor given his ability to cut off the ring. Lomachenko isn’t a natural 135 pounder and thus he isn’t a big puncher in the division, however his body punches will impact Lopez in the later rounds.
Unlike Teofimo’s previous opponents, Lomachenko won’t be found easily. We should see his elite footwork, head movement and elusiveness on full display Saturday night. When you add in Lomachenko’s ability to make adjustments based on experience, it’s clear Lopez is overmatched.
In a matchup between a boxer and a puncher, I typically choose the boxer. The only way Lopez wins this fight is by knockout and outside of a flash knockdown, I don’t see that happening. If Lopez doesn’t do anything substantial in the opening rounds of this fight, I don’t think he has much of a shot.
Given Lomachenko’s inactivity (he hasn’t fought since August 2019) and the size discrepancy, I’m reluctant to take him in a late round stoppage. I expect Lomachenko to give up some early rounds but outbox Lopez on his way to a 12 round decision.
The Pick: Lomachenko by Decision (-110)
Malik Smith: Lomachenko Round Bet
In boxing, having early success can be a gift and a curse. Winning early, and in exciting fashion, affords fighters the opportunity call out potential opponents even if said opponent might still be slightly out of their league.
Teofimo Lopez is an outstanding fighter, who will be among the most exciting fighters for a very long time. But at 23 years old, I don’t know if this is the smartest fight for him to take, even if I understand why it’s a fight he needed to take.
Vasiliy Lomachenko is one of the most complete fighters to step into a boxing ring. According to CompuBox’s plus/minus rating (the difference between a fighter’s own connect percentage and opponent connect percentage), Lomachenko rates as the best active fighter (+17.3).
Loma has either scored a knockout, knockdown or just outright forced his opponents to quit in their corner for the past six years. Lopez doesn’t strike me as the type to quit out of frustration, but I do think there’s a good chance that Lomachenko can stop the flashy puncher from Brooklyn.
I like betting Lomachenko to win between Round 7-12, which gives a wide enough range for Loma to wear Lopez down and pounce on him late.
The Pick: Lomachenko to win in Rounds 7-12 (+375)
Michael Leboff: Lomachenko by Stoppage
I go into greater detail on the potential paths to victory for both fighters in the fight preview, but I’ll summarize my thoughts here.
Lopez’s only viable path to unifying the division is through a KO. I expect him to take chances and hunt for a fight-changing punch. That should open up opportunities for Lomachenko, who went to the body a ton in his last fight against Campbell, to score and do damage.
Considering that we haven’t seen how Lopez will be able the kind of punishment that Lomachenko can provide, I’m going to take a chance on Loma winning this fight before the final bell. I like Lomachenko by KO/TKO/DQ at +215 as my favorite bet, but wouldn’t be opposed to a small bet on Loma to win Rounds 10-12 at +1100 at DraftKings.
The Pick: Lomachenko by KO/TKO/DQ