Brentford vs Leicester City Odds, Pick: Bees to Deliver on Saturday Morning
Ryan Pierse/Getty. Pictured: Bryan Mbuemo.
Brentford vs Leicester City Odds
Leicester City Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / +100)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-145 / +115)|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Brentford look to continue their winning ways when they host Leicester City at the Brentford Community Stadium.
The Bees notched a 2-0 win over Southampton on Wednesday, which kept them in the top half of the table. Brentford have been red-hot out of the World Cup break, losing only one match in the Premier League. Brentford still have an outside shot at securing European football next season, so every match is crucial for them until the end of the season.
Leicester lost yet again this past weekend and now have firmly dropped themselves into the relegation battle. The Foxes have been hanging around the middle of the table for a long time now, but they are in danger of getting relegated if their poor run of form continues.
Brentford Playing Like a Quality Side
Brentford are absolutely deserving to be in the top half of the table because they’re one of the most efficient teams in the Premier League, especially defensively. The Bees defend their penalty area better than any non-big six club in the Premier League, as they’re only allowing 1.2 npxG per 90 minutes and they have the second-best final third to penalty box conversion rate.
They have been awesome all season long if you look at what they’ve done against lesser competition. Brentford have a +7.3 xGD against the bottom half the table. They also play incredibly well at the Brentford Community Stadium, where they have lost just one match all season long (vs. Arsenal) and have a +5.7 xGD.
Brentford are very reliant on set pieces, but they are incredibly efficient when they do get them. The Bees have the highest xG per set piece and are top six in percentage of aerial duals won, while Leicester are 17th in xG allowed per set piece and 18th in percentage of aerial duals won.
Leicester City Struggling on Both Ends
The problems that exist for Leicester come in the final third. The Foxes are good at getting the ball into attacking space, but once it’s there they don’t have a clinical finisher and they aren’t able to generated good quality chances.
Leicester are eighth in final third entries, but they are 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate. That is why you see Leicester leading the Premier League with 11 goals from outside the box. Leicester are also 16th in the Premier League in xG per set piece, which is bad news because Brentford’s set piece defense is fourth-best in the Premier League.
The Foxes have also been terrible defensively, allowing 1.57 npxG per 90 minutes, which is 18th in the Premier League. They are a decent pressing team, but the problem is that sometimes they get caught way too far up the pitch and then get exposed in transition.
Brentford vs Leicester City Pick
This is a perfect matchup for how Brentford want to play. Leicester are a really good possession-based team and very good at playing through pressure. The Foxes are in the top half of the Premier League in average possession and third in offensive PPDA, but that isn’t really going to matter against Brentford, who will let Leicester have the ball.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Brentford went back to their 3-5-2 for this match to sit deep, defend their penalty area and then look to hit Leicester on the counter.
I love the value on the Bees at -105 or better.
Pick: Brentford ML (-105 via DraftKings)
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