Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Odds, Pick | Premier League Best Bets

Brentford Will Have to Adjust to Possession

Although the Bees are coming off a massive win over Chelsea, this is a much different style of opponents.

Brentford are the out of possession kings, as they're averaging 43.2% possession on the season, which is the fourth-lowest in the Premier League. The Bees are elite at defending their penalty area, as they have the best final third to penalty box entry conversion rate allowed and are top six in big scoring chances allowed. Thomas Frank's 3-5-2 structure allows them to play five at the back out of possession, while also closing off the middle of the pitch making it very difficult for opponents to create high quality chances.

What often ends up happening – since Brentford are pretty passive out of possession – is teams end up taking a ton of shots from distance when they become impatient and are unable to break down the Bees low block. Brentford's average shot distance allowed is 18.6 yards, which is the best mark in the Premier League, but they are allowing the third-most shots per 90 minutes.

The Brentford offense is the most efficient offense in the Premier League given how few chances they get comparatively to some of the other above average offenses in the league. Brentford are eighth in npxG per 90 minutes, but have created the sixth-most big scoring chances, while averaging the third-fewest shots per 90 minutes. They're also No. 1 in the Premier League in xG per set piece.

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Nottingham Forest Don't Match Up Well in This Spot

It'd be silly to overreact to Nottingham Forest's win over Brighton on Wednesday. Yes, they did create 2.3 xG for the match, but they were awarded two penalties, so that means Nottingham Forest only created 0.7 xG from open play.

That's a theme with the Nottingham Forest offense, especially away from the City Ground. Nottingham Forest have scored just seven goals in 16 matches away from home this season and two of them came against Liverpool last Saturday. Their offense is almost entirely built on creating big chances in direct transitional opportunities and even though they're near the bottom in xG per 90 minutes, they have created the 13th-most big scoring chances in the Premier League. If that's their only plan of attack against a defense that doesn't allow big scoring chances, it's going to be a long afternoon.

The defense, despite adding Keylor Navas in net, has been incredibly poor this season. Nottingham Forest are allowing 1.46 npxG per 90 minutes. Despite playing a 5-3-2 out of possession, Forest are allowing the second-most final third entries and second-most box entries in the Premier League. That's not ideal when facing one of the most efficient offenses in the Premier League.

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

When two direct transitional teams go up against each other, it usually ends up creating a very end to end style match. That's particularly true if both offenses are operating efficiently in those direct opportunities.

Brentford are what Steve Cooper wishes his 3-5-2 could be – a transitional offense that is actually deadly and also efficient on set pieces. The question is, who is going to control more possession? These are two of the most passive teams in the Premier League by PPDA, average possession, and high turnovers, so will Nottingham Forest try to play super defensive knowing that a point is crucial in their survival hopes?

Either way, Brentford have been the far superior side this season, putting up a +0.17 xGD per 90 minutes, while Nottingham Forest are at -0.66 xGD per 90 minutes. I think Brentford are undervalued here at home, so I like them on the moneyline at -150.

Pick: Brentford ML (-150)