Premier League Odds & Picks | Best Bets, Featuring Everton vs Arsenal
Chris Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Sean Dyche.
We are back from the international break with some tantalizing matches in match week five in the Premier League as Brighton travel to Old Trafford to take on Man United and Newcastle host Brentford, who are the hottest offense in the Premier League.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & picks.
Premier League Odds & Picks
|Man United Odds
|Over / Under
-225 / +172
Cunningham: This is about as terrible of a matchup as it gets for Manchester United. What they have struggled with under Ten Hag is man mark pressing. They’ve tried to build out against them and it hasn’t worked. As good as Casemiro he is not someone who can receive the ball with his back to the defense and guide Manchester United out of a high press, as he’s turned the ball over a whopping 20 times inside United’s own final third.
The Seagulls are averaging 2.04 npxG through four matches, which is very close to what they averaged under De Zerbi last season. They will have some injury concerns for their attack with Julio Encisco out and Evan Ferguson and Danny Welbeck being questionable. However, Brighton have so much depth that they can just start Joao Pedro up top and not miss a beat.
Brighton have been electric offensively, but they’ve been torched pretty badly in transition this season. The Seagulls have conceded a whopping eight big scoring chances in four matches.
I know it’s early, but as of right now both Brighton and Manchester United matches are averaging over 3.5 xG, so I am expecting absolute chaos here with a boat load of chances at both ends.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+120 via BetRivers)
|Luton Town Odds
|Over / Under
-110 / -110
Cunningham: Fulham are the more talented side here and they’re at home, but this number is crazy.
Luton Town have had to play three really tough opponents to begin the season having to travel to Brighton and Chelsea, while also hosting West Ham who are in incredible form. Now they get to face a team down near their level and the market has severely downgraded them.
This is a match where Fulham are going to have to be the ones controlling the possession and playing through pressure, which is not something they are great at. Basically the only thing Fulham have done positively so far this season is being efficient on set pieces, as the scored against both City and Arsenal that way. Four matches in they are second in the Premier League in xG per set piece. Luton Town are third right now through three matches in xG allowed per set piece and are top eight in aerial dual win percentage.
The problem that has existed for a long time with Fulham defensively are they really have struggled to defend in wide areas. They've done a good job of closing down the middle of the pitch this season, but they have allowed 82 crosses and seven of them to be completed into their penalty area, which both are bottom five in the Premier League.
Fulham also don't have a consistent goal scoring threat up top since Mitrovic left. In four matches, Raul Jimenez is leading them with seven shots, but he only has 0.4 xG to show for it.
Pick: Luton Town +1 (-134 via BetRivers)
Dabbundo: No team in the Premier League has played a more difficult fixture list to start the season than Newcastle. The Magpies beat Aston Villa at home and then lost three consecutive matches to Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton. Newcastle will face a different kind of challenge on Saturday against a very possession-averse Brentford side. The biggest question entering the new year for Newcastle was whether or not they could replicate their attacking output if teams forced them to have more of the ball and break down lower blocks without space in behind to exploit.
Through four matches, that skill hasn’t really been tested because Newcastle have played teams that want to have the ball and play on the front foot. That’s not Brentford. The Bees will cede most of the possession to Newcastle and challenge Eddie Howe’s side to break them down and create margin.
There’s a lot of air in the early season numbers because of opponent and red card outlier minutes, but Brentford have created the most xG and non-penalty xG in the entire league. They’ve done it without Ivan Toney and without overwhelming shot volume (10th in shots per 90) and with high quality chances and efficiency on set pieces. The Bees have the highest xG per shot in the entire league and are once again defying the market which continues to expect them to be a lower mid-table team.
Newcastle won both meetings between these two teams last year, but both were about even in expected goals. The Magpies' conservative nature in possession will make it hard for them to separate.
Pick: Brentford +1 (+100 via bet365)
|Man United Odds
|Over / Under
-175 / +132
Dabbundo: You’d never believe based on how the opening four matches have gone for the two clubs, but Everton have created more expected goals than Arsenal thus far. The Gunners have struggled to produce high quality chances in the center of the penalty area and haven’t gotten the elite finishing rates from Martinelli, Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka that propelled their attack into elite tier last season.
Everton may be bolstered by the return of Jack Harrison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who have both been productive players when healthy enough to play in the Premier League in the last few seasons. Beto finished his Everton debut with four shots and 0.3 xG too, so there’s the building blocks of a capable PL attack forming here.
As much as Everton have struggled to finish chances for the last 16 months in the league, the midfield and forward groups have been a disruptive pressing unit and can once again break down Arsenal’s build play and create high turnovers up the pitch.
The Gunners may be without Gabriel in the center of their defensive line on Sunday, which forces Ben White to play centrally and means Takehiro Tomiyasu slots in at right back. Gabriel is their best aerial defender and Everton are one of the heaviest crossing sides in the entire league under Sean Dyche.
Arsenal did get a massive win against Manchester United prior to the international break, but the attack once again struggled to produce big scoring chances as the lack of a true elite striker continues to hold this attack back just enough. I’d bet consistently undervalued Everton +1 at -110 or better on Sunday.