Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions | Wolves vs Brentford Preview

Wolves Struggling to Produce Offense

Wolves are a slow build up team from the back that likes to get the ball out wide and swing in crosses. It’s how Julien Lopateugi has always wanted to play, even going back to his days with Sevilla. Wolves lead the Premier League in touches in their own penalty area and final third. It’s great to be able to hold possession and build out from the back, but not if it doesn’t result in a high quality chance. Wolves are dead last in the Premier League in big scoring chances and have 38% of their shots coming from outside the box. 

To illustrate just how dire the goal scoring situation is at Wolves, they've played four different strikers: Raul Jimenez, Diego Costa, Hee-Chan Hwang and Matheus Cunha. Those four strikers have combined for two goals this entire season. It's no surprise that Ruben Neves and Daniel Pondence are their two leading scorers.

The previous meeting between these two sides is a perfect encapsulation of what Wolves are as a team. They get a ton of low quality shots. That match ended in a 1-1 draw, but Brentford won the xG battle 1.4 to 0.6 even though Wolves outshot them 13-to-12.

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Brentford Playing Top Half Football

The Bees have shown all of us that possession doesn't matter if you can't create high quality chances. In only one of their 10 wins in the Premier League this season have they held more than 50% possession. That is by design because Thomas Frank wants his side to be incredibly difficult to break down by playing five at the back out of possession and not allowing teams to get into the box at a high rate.

This is a great matchup for Brentford’s style of play. The Bees like to sit deep in a 5-3-2 out of possession and then produce counterattacking opportunities.

With Brentford playing five at the back, it won't allow Wolves to gain numerical superiority in wide areas and the Bees are top six in winning aerial duals. Brentford are also incredibly reliant on set pieces and crosses to generate chances since they’re averaging the second-fewest shots in England. Wolves have been very average at defending set pieces and are 15th in defending crosses, so this is a good matchup for them defensively.

Brentford also have shown us you don't need to hold a lot of possession or even take a high number of shots to be effective offensively. Brentford put a premium on creating one or two huge chances every match and it's been successful because they've created the seventh-most big scoring chances off the third-fewest shots.

Wolves vs Brentford Pick

The bottom line is Wolves should not be a favorite over the Bees, who have much better underlying metrics for the season. Brentford have a +0.20 npxGD for the season, while Wolves are sitting at -14.2.

Brentford are likely going to concede a lot of possession to Wolves and allow them to build out of the back and then press them once they enter the final third, which will create the direct counterattacking opportunities where Brentford thrive. Plus, with Wolves' inability to generate high-quality chances, how are they going to break down one of the best low block teams in the Premier League?

I have Brentford projected as a slight favorite here on the road, so I like the value on them draw no bet at +112.

Pick: Brentford – Draw No Bet (+112)