Tottenham vs Luton Town Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Sebastian Frej/Getty. Pictured: Brennan Johnson.
Tottenham vs Luton Town Odds
| Tottenham Odds | -500 |
| Luton Town Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +700 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -400 / +300 |
Tottenham look to maintain their Champions League spot in the table when they host Luton Town.
Tottenham were battered in a London Derby last time out by Fulham losing 3-0. Ange Postecoglu's super aggressive style does have its downsides and that was on full display at Craven Cottage. Tottenham beat Luton the last time they faced off despite going down a man in the first half and they need three points again here to stay in fifth place in the table.
Luton Town are in deep trouble. They are currently outside the relegation zone after Nottingham Forest's four point deduction, but they are in the middle an injury crisis coupled with the hardest part of their schedule. They did get a late 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest last time out, but they need to continue to accumulate points or they are going down.
Tottenham
The previous meeting between these two I think is pretty telling about how this match is going to go. Tottenham blitzed Luton Town out of the gate, as the Hatters were trying to play a passive low block and before Spurs got a red card in the 45th minute they had already taken 12 shots and created 1.62 expected goals.
Tottenham want to press high, play a high line and try to disrupt a team's build up play. They’ve been successful to a certain extent, having the best PPDA in the Premier League and having forced the most high turnovers as well. The problem is though, what happens when they play a team like Luton Town that is going to send the ball long and not allow them to press high?
The biggest problem that Tottenham have had defensively this year, is in transition. They are 16th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed and are allowing 1.51 npxG per 90 minutes. Tottenham without a doubt will play a high line and the reality of it being successful is if van de Ven being healthy. You saw what happened with Dragusin in there against the pace of Fulham in their previous meeting and how exposed Spurs are. Because Postecoglu wants to push his two wing backs high and inverted when Tottenham are in possession they are very reliant on their two center backs covering a lot of ground to stop transition attacks from out wide.
It cost Tottenham against Fulham as the second goal came off a cross in a transition moment. The third goal was also conceded off a corner, which is not a good sign when they are going to face one of the best teams at creating chances off of them in the Premier League.
Luton Town
The biggest problem for Luton in this match is if they decide to go man to man across the pitch, which is really their only shot at getting a result then Tottenham is going to torch them because Luton Town are currently without Pelly Mpanzu, Sambi Lokonga, and Marvelous Nakamba, who are the only three defensive holding midfielders on their roster. So, even if Luton decide to sit deep in some type of 5-4-1 or 5-3-2 shape, Ross Barkley is the only ball stopper they have in the middle. Not to mention, Luton are also on a fourth choice center back in Reece Burke because Gabriel Osho, Tom Lockyear and Amari'i Bell are all going to miss this match as well.
Luton Town have allowed 60 goals in 28 matches this season, which I know sounds bad, but the underlying data is even worse. Luton have conceded 71.1 expected goals and have also conceded 45 big scoring chances, which is the most in the Premier League by a mile. The reason they have over-performed is because Thomas Kaminski been a really good shot stopper for the first part of the year and now has started to regress, as he's only at. +1.0 post shot xG +/- when at one point he led the Premier League in that category.
So, that means that Luton are going to have to play really aggressive out of possession to try and win the ball off of Tottenham because if they do, they will have a ton of space in the wide channels to create chances the only way they know how, via crosses.
Tottenham vs Luton Town
Prediction
The way Tottenham and Luton both want to play is going to turn this match into an up and down track meet. Tottenham are going to build out in their 2-3-5, overload the center parts of the pitch where Luton is weakest and be able to create a ton of chances against the worst defense in the Premier League.
Because Tottenham are going to build out in a 2-3-5 that is going to naturally leave space in wide areas when they lose the ball. That is where Luton Town thrives and quite frankly creates all of their chances from open play.
I have this total at 4.2, but I think there is a legitimate shot that Luton Town puts the ball in the back of the net given how much space there is going to be in the wide channels. So, I like the value on Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 at -150.
Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-150 via DraftKings)
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