Adon7x’s 2019 PGA Championship First-Round Leader Bets: A Perfect Setup for Finau

May 15, 2019 06:00 PM EDT
Credit:

Jasen Vinlove, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Tony Finau

  • Adon7x runs through his favorite First-Round Leader bets for the 2019 PGA Championship, which gets underway on Thursday, May 16.
  • There's not a big weather edge on either end of the draw, but it's important to focus on player who have performed well on Poa greens.

Last week, we correctly guessed which wave to target at the AT&T Byron Nelson, as seven of the top 10 players after Round 1 had morning tee times.

The strong wind gusts we were expecting didn’t actually hit the course until 3 p.m. — and for a moment, it looked like someone from the afternoon wave might catch Denny McCarthy at 12-under, but mother nature did her job.

Overall, the morning wave ended up playing two strokes easier than the afternoon, and while Denny McCarthy was not on the card, he is another example of why First Round Leader wagering is one of the best opportunities to hit a 100-1 winner.

Unfortunately, I do not see a clear wave advantage on Thursday for the PGA Championship, as the wind is expected to be consistent throughout the day.

The morning wave is typically the preferred target on Poa greens since the Poa will grow throughout the day and give the later tee times slightly bumpier surfaces to putt on. But the morning wave will get British Open-like temperatures before it warms up 10-15 degrees for those playing in the afternoon.

Normally, I don’t play nine different First Round Leaders, but this is a major and we are still risking roughly 1 unit since seven of my nine golfers listed are 100-1 odds or more.

Let’s get to the picks.


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Tony Finau

Odds: 40-1 (.25u)

Tee time: 12:43 p.m. ET

Tony is always a popular outright winner wager within the golf community, but I prefer to bet him in the FRL market. While his odds are usually on the short end, Finau has as much talent as any of the favorites and loves to start fast. Perhaps you will remember the Masters last year, when he nearly led after Round 1 while playing on an injured ankle.

I love to target Finau on Poa and Bentgrass greens, the putting surfaces where he’s recorded his best results as a pro. He has a great record at Torrey Pines, which, as Joshua Perry discussed earlier this week, is a great comp course off the tee to Bethpage Black. Finau was the first-round leader in back-to-back Poa events last year (Riviera and Torrey Pines).

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