2019 Turkish Airlines Betting Preview: Who Can Stop Justin Rose From a Three-Peat?

2019 Turkish Airlines Betting Preview: Who Can Stop Justin Rose From a Three-Peat? article feature image

Ian Rutherford, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Haotong Li

With the PGA Tour taking a week off following the Asian swing, we’ll shift our focus to the European Tour and the Turkish Airlines Open this week.

Two-time defending champ Justin Rose headlines this no-cut event along with Patrick Reed.

The Course

Montgomerie Maxx Royal in Belek, Turkey will play host to the event this year. This will be the fourth time the course has hosted the event, most recently in 2015. Victor Dubuisson has two wins here and Brooks Koepka won on the other occasion when he was a regular in Europe in 2014.

The course checks in at just under 7,200 yards for a par 72. So it’s not overly long and has played fairly easy on every occasion. Dubuisson won at 22 and 24-under par, while Koepka reached 17-under in his win.

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Water is in play on about half the holes, so some precision is required here. But longer hitters will have an advantage, as there are five Par 5s there for the taking. Looking at the past winners, Dubuisson and Koepka, both do a lot of damage off the tee. Koepka is far longer though, while Dubuisson is slightly above average with his length but one of the more accurate drivers in Europe.

Players can go about it in different ways on this course, but they’ll definitely need to have a strength off the tee to compete here.

The Favorites

As mentioned, Justin Rose has won the last two events and will be the favorite this week, but neither of his wins came on this course. He was third here though in 2013, so his game should fit this course as well as he goes for the three-peat after opening at +750.

Patrick Reed is next in line at +1000.  Reed’s game is in really good shape. He backed up his win in the FedEx Cup Playoffs with top-20 finishes in six of his next seven starts. He finished eighth last week.

Shane Lowry, Matt Wallace and Tyrrell Hatton are each in that +1600 to +1800 range depending on where you look. Both Wallace and Hatton made the card in China last week. Wallace was awful, but Hatton turned a slow start around on the weekend and will probably be a popular pick this week.

I’ll start my card though at the bottom of this range with Haotong Li at +3000. In terms of combined accuracy and distance, Li is one of the top drivers in Europe. He’s also ninth in Par-5 scoring, fifth in birdies and second in eagles, so Li has the ability to go win a shootout. He lost a playoff to Rose a year ago, albeit on a different course, but he’s shown the ability to play well in Turkey.

The Mid-Tier

This has been the range to find the winner on this course. Koepka was +4000 in his win, while Dubuisson was also at that number his second victory and opened at +6600 in his first win.

Both Dubuisson and Koepka picked up their first wins here and I’ll back another strong driver of the ball to breakthrough here as well.

Adri Arnaus has been close all season and at +4500 in a small field, I’ll take a chance with him. He was fourth in Spain about a month ago, but the form dipped a bit after coming up short in his home country. But this should be a good bounce-back spot for him. He’s fourth off the tee and fifth in GIR in Europe, so the only question is if the putter will get hot enough for him to make the 25-30 birdies that will be required of the winner this week.

We’ll also go with Victor Perez here as well at +4000. Perez is a recent winner at the Dunhill Links and was fourth in China a week ago. He’s another strong driver and showed in his win that he’s ready for a shootout.

The Longshots

We’ll start out here with Romain Langasque at 100-1. He fits the mold of his French counterpart Dubuisson where he’s not really a bomber, but more of a total driver. He ranks sixth off the tee in Europe and is inside the top 15 in GIR. Couple that with an above-average putter and he should suit the course fine.

We’ll also go with Justin Harding at 110-1. He’s not going to overpower this course, but he’s long enough to play well here and has above average accuracy off the tee. He’s the type of player who can get a hot putter to win these birdie fests.

The Turkish Airlines Card

  • Haotong Li +3000 (1.1 units)
  • Victor Perez +4000 (.83 units)
  • Adri Arnaus +4500 (.73 units)
  • Romain Langasque +10000 (.33 units)
  • Justin Harding +11000 (.3 units)

Total Stake: 3.29 units

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