2019 Wyndham Championship Expert Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets at Sedgefield
Ian Rutherford, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Cam Smith
- The 2019 Wyndham Championship begins on Thursday, August 1 at Sedgefield Country Club in North Carolina.
- Our staff lists their favorite bets for the final event of the PGA Tour's regular season.
The 2019 Wyndham Championship is the last event of the PGA Tour’s regular season, as the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin next weekend at The Northern Trust.
The Wyndham takes place at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. You can expect players to go low at Sedgefield as it is a short par-70 course that stretches 7,127 yards and is known as one of the easier courses on tour.
Webb Simpson is the favorite this weekend at 10-1 with Hideki Matsuyama (14-1) right behind him. Collin Morikawa (18-1), who is coming off his first career victory at the Barracuda, is the third favorite while fellow young guns Viktor Hovland (25-1) and Matthew Wolff (50-1) are also in the mix.
Here are our favorite bets for the Wyndham:
The Bet: Joaquin Niemann Top-10 Finish (+450)
After he turned professional last year, I asked Niemann what type of course best suits his game.
He responded that he likes tree-lined tracks which remind him of the courses in his native Chile.
Well, Donald Ross tracks should correlate nicely – and he’s already proven it with a T-33 at last year’s Wyndham and a T-5 at the Rocket Mortgage last month.
I like the odds on Niemann to crack the top 10 here at Sedgefield.
The Bet: Webb Simpson Top-10 Finish (-105)
I normally go with a tournament head-to-head in this space but I can’t look past these odds for Webb Simpson to finish inside the top 10.
We all know that Webb absolutely loves this spot on the calendar, so much so that his daughter shares the name of the title sponsor.
Webb has finished T6 or better here in four of the past five years. His fairways-and-greens game is the key to success at Sedgefield and word is the rough is extra juicy this week, which will only benefit him more.
Webb also comes into this week in hot-fire form, coming off a second-place finish in Memphis where he gained five strokes with his approach and nearly seven strokes on the greens per FantasyNational.
On average he has gained nearly nine strokes: Total over the field during his last five events and his outright odds reflect that he has never come to his favorite event in better shape to contend.
The Bet: Viktor Hovland (-125) over Cam Smith
This matchup stands out as I have Hovland as a core DFS play for me and Smith as an anti-course fit.
Let’s start with their long-term form (Hovland listed first):
- LT Adj Rd Score: 69.3 vs. 69.7
- Greens in regulation: 73.6% vs. 61.4%
- Driving Accuracy: 75% vs. 57.1%
- Birdies per tournament: 14.5 vs. 12.9
- Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -0.5 vs. +1.3
- Adjusted strokes on par 5s: -4.4 vs. -3.7
Smith’s +1.3 adjusted strokes on par 4s is the number that stands out to me the most since there are only two par 5s at Sedgefield Country Club. Playing the par 4s well will be crucial this week, and that’s something Smith hasn’t been great at.
Even when you account for the eight par 4s that are between 400-450 yards, Smith ranks 115th in his last 24 rounds from such yardages while Hovland ranks 27th. And for a short hitter, Smith sure does miss a lot of fairways.
Now the recent form:
- Recent Adj Rd Score: 68.7 vs. 70.2
- Recent GIR: 77.8% vs. 61.1%
- Driving Accuracy: 76.1% vs. 62.9%
- Birdies per tournament: 19.0 vs. 13.0
- Adjusted strokes on par 4s: -2.8 vs. +1.0
- Adjusted strokes on par 5s: -4.4 vs. -3.4
Smith has managed to finish 12th, 20th and 29th over his past three tournaments, but over those 12 rounds, he still ranks just 120th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 66th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 97th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
On the flip side, Hovland ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach, second in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 12 rounds.
Hovland’s biggest fault this year has been his putting, and despite those woes, he has four top-16 finishes in his last five starts, and his only missed cut came at the Farmers Insurance Open in January.
The Bet: Cam Smith over Chez Reavie +115
Justin doesn’t like Cam against Hovland and I really wouldn’t go after him there either. But I’ll take a shot on him as a dog against Reavie.
Smith has beat Reavie all three times they’ve played the Wyndham together. He’s also finished ahead of Reavie in each of the last three events since Reavie picked up his win at Travelers.
Smith isn’t the strongest from tee to green as noted above, but Sedgefield isn’t really the most difficult course in that regard and tends to put more emphasis on the short game than the normal Tour stop, which is Smith’s strong suit.
Reavie’s year is set with the win at Travelers. Since then, the form has dipped and this hasn’t really been a great spot him in recent years. In five starts since 2011, Reavie’s best finish here is 37th.