Our Favorite Prop Picks for the BMW Championship: Tony Finau, Alex Noren for Top-20 Finish
Christian Petersen/PGA of America/PGA of America via Getty Images. Pictured: Byeong-Hun An
- Looking for the best golf prop betting picks for the 2020 BMW Championship?
- Our staff has you covered with four player props for Thursday's PGA tournament at Olympia Fields Country Club.
- Read on to find out why we're betting on top-20 finishes for Tony Finau and Alex Noren, plus why we're backing Byeong-Hun An as the tournament's Top Asian Player.
The 2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the 2020 BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia, Ill.
Dustin Johnson, fresh off his 30-under performance at The Northern Trust, is the clear betting favorite at +800 but there is some serious firepower in this field. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Daniel Berger and Rory McIlroy are all between +1000 and +2000.
With only 70 players in this field there could be some good value betting props this week, especially top-5, top-10 or top-20 bets.
Here are our favorite props for the 2020 BMW Championship:
Alex Noren Top-20 Finish (+175)
Entering a week when the course is largely a great unknown for most competitors and any of the elite-level guys in the field can win, top-20 props on those who are listed a notch below might be the best way to go.
With only 70 players in the field, these plays will only have to beat about 72 percent of the field, which isn’t asking too much. I like Viktor Hovland, Russell Henley, Jason Kokrak and Cameron Smith here, but my favorite of the bunch is Noren.
One of the biggest movers on the FedEx Cup points list last week, Noren climbed from 78th to 47th and now has the Tour Championship within his grasp after what was a mediocre year for a player of his caliber until very recently.
In fact, in his first 10 starts – all in PGA TOUR-sanctioned events – the former top-10 player had zero top-10 results, but he’s compiled three in his last four, with plenty to play for this week.
Tony Finau Top-20 Finish (+140)
This is my go-to play when I expect tough conditions because we know Finau’s ball-striking will usually rank near the top of the field each week.
Finau did miss the cut at TPC Boston but it was largely due to his short game. In a smaller field, I like getting plus money on a player who consistently finds his way into contention.
Byeong-Hun An (+335) to be Top Asian
This prop is a tournament-long 3-ball between An, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama. Im and Matsuyama are all but guaranteed to make it into the TOUR Championship, but it’s a different story for An, who sits 35th and needs a good showing to crack the top-30.
An missed the cut at TPC Boston but he finished 12th and 22nd at the St. Jude and PGA Championship, so even though he’s been inconsistent he’s worth a play at these odds.
Im lost -3.4 strokes Tee to Green at TPC Boston and Matsuyama’s performance was buoyed by unsustainable putting.
There’s a lot of variance among these three so I’ll take a shot with Benny An.
Jason Day Top-10 Finish (+275)
There is no denying that Day was horrific last week after being a popular pick to win. The damage was done on his approaches (-6.5 SG:APP) as he really struggled with his iron shots.
In Day’s past four tournaments prior to The Northern Trust, he was immaculate Tee to Green (+9.6,+7.0,+6.2,+6.2 SG:T2G) and also gained on Approach in each of those tournaments.
Golfers have bad rounds and last week may have just been an outlier for J-Day. With a strong sample size of sharp recent form, Day is a good bet to bounce back this week and get into contention.