2021 3M Open Picks & Odds: Our Favorite Outright Bets at TPC Twin Cities
GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Sergio Garcia
- Golf's major season is over but the 3M Open kicks off Thursday morning from TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn.
- There's only a few weeks left in the PGA TOUR season, so which golfer can close it out with a flourish?
- Our staff gives their favorite picks to win the tournament, below.
With the Open Championship in the rear-view, we’re officially out of major championship season. That means it’s full speed ahead to the FedEx Cup Playoffs and the Ryder Cup.
With just a few weeks between now and the culmination of the 2020/21 PGA TOUR season, now is the time for golfers to make a run up the table. Who is best suited to make a charge at this week’s 3M Open? Check out our favorite outright bets to find out:
Patton Kizzire (+6500)
I’ve covered enough editions of The Open Championship over the years to know that I’m completely useless for a handful of days upon returning. That futility would increase tenfold if I was actually trying to compete in a physical pursuit at the top of my profession instead of just pounding away on some keyboard. In any case, I’m surprised at how many big-name players are making the trip from Royal St. George’s to TPC Twin Cities and I’m sure some of them will play well, but I’m still giving an edge to those who remained stateside last week.
That leads me to Kizzire, who’s been better than advertised this season. He’s top-20 in both R1 and R4 scoring average, total birdie average and in the all-around ranking. Why is that last one so important? It measures how proficient players are in every major category — and there’s a correlation here, too.
At the beginning of this year, I wrote about expecting big things from Seamus Power, who was the highest-ranked non-star in that category last season. He, of course, just claimed a first PGA TOUR victory. Now that honor belongs to Kizzire, who appears ready to add a third career title with some pretty tasty odds this week.
Bubba Watson (+3500)
Bubba missed the cut here a year ago, but the form wasn’t anywhere near as good as it is now. Watson finished sixth in his last start and he did post a 67 at TPC Twin Cities, so he has shown he can go low at this track.
Ryan Moore (+6500)
I am going off the board a bit this week as I think there is a wide range of players that could make a run at the win this week at TPC Twin Cities. Moore is a player that shows up a certain courses every single year and one of those tracks is TPC Deere Run, which has a strong correlation with TPC Twin Cities.
Moore finished second at the John Deere two weeks ago and a has win there, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he posts strong results over his career at the 3M, where he already has a 12th-place finish to his name.
This season has been a run of players finding their first wins in several years, and I’m taking a dive on Moore, who opted out of the Open Championship, this week to find his first victory since 2016 on a course that will suit his game well.
Sergio Garcia (+3500)
Garcia is quietly coming off of three consecutive top-20 finishes. In his past two measured events, the Spaniard has gained an average of 5.9 strokes tee to green. We know how poor of a putter Garcia is, but he hasn’t been quite as bad lately; only losing 0.3 strokes to the field putting.
The 3M Open is an event that favors ball-strikers, and Sergio is still one of the best ball-strikers on the planet when he is in form. In his past 24 rounds, the 41-year-old ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach.
I don’t see much value at the top of the board this week, so Garcia at +3500 is a good place to start a betting card.
Jhonnatan Vegas (+6000)
I am pretty bullish on Vegas this week in all formats. He’s been playing some incredible golf of late and it feels like he’s knocking on the door of his fourth PGA TOUR victory. TPC Twin Cities is said to be a ball-striker’s course, which is good news for Vegas, as he ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 16 rounds.
He’s coming off a T-11 at the John Deere where he shot a final round 70 to keep him from contending. The same thing happened at both the Palmetto (T-2) and the Byron Nelson (T-9,) where one bad round did him in. If he can just keep it together for all four rounds this week he has final group potential in this weak field. He’s been striking it too well to stop backing him now, and we’re getting a nice price at 60/1 here.
Sergio Garcia (+3500)
Sergio has been mostly M.I.A. of late, playing in just two events since the beginning of June. He had some success at those events, quietly finishing 19th at both the U.S. Open and Open Chanpionship last week. His ball-striking prowess was on full display at the U.S. Open, gaining 4.5 strokes on approach and 5 total strokes tee to green.
Now we enter an event where we’re seeking ball-strikers and birdie-makers. Over the last 12 tracked rounds, Sergio ranks 10th in this field in birdie or better percentage, and even gained 2 strokes putting at the U.S. Open. Things seem to line up nicely for Sergio this week.