2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds: 2 Betting Picks & 1 DFS Sleeper to Target

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The week before a major is usually a let-down in terms of field strength, but many of the big names are teeing it up this week at TPC Craig Ranch.

Most golfers want to get at least one event in before each major and the schedule hasn't set up well for many on TOUR. After the RBC Heritage, we had the team event, then the PGA TOUR headed to Mexico for a new event, and then we had the Wells Fargo Championship at a different venue than usual. With this course being in close proximity to Southern Hills, many of the elites chose this event as their warmup for the PGA Championship.

This event has changed venues a number of times over the years, but it has settled on TPC Craig Ranch for the time being. Last year was the first time we saw this course on the PGA TOUR and it was a classic birdie-fest. Despite 20 mph winds on the weekend, six golfers shot at least 20-under par, and it played as the fifth easiest course on TOUR.

With a stronger field on tap this week and with very little wind in the forecast, we can expect some extremely low scores this time around.

The course is a par-72 that measures 7,468 yards. From a statistical standpoint, everything about the course is easier than TOUR average. The fairways are easy to hit, the greens are easy to hit, scrambling success rate is high, and three-putt percentage is low.

Again, all of this should lead to a lot of birdies. The only abnormal statistic from last year was that nearly 35% of all approach shots were hit from more than 200 yards. If that is the case again this year, long iron play will be critical.

In general, the easiest courses on TOUR tend to turn into putting contests. For that reason, I am looking at golfers that have the ability to gain strokes with the flatstick. I'm fine playing the bomber angle or the good approach player angle as long as the golfer in question is good on the greens.

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Favorite Outright: Maverick McNealy +5500 (DraftKings)

If you are looking for a golfer that should be in the mix on the weekend and that has decent odds, McNealy could be your answer. He has made 12 straight cuts on the PGA TOUR and has posted nine top 35 finishes during that stretch. He's good off the tee, he's good on approach, and he's an excellent putter.

His biggest weakness (around the green) should be negated this week on what is expected to be an easy course. He tends to play his best on long courses where he can hit a lot of drivers, and TPC Craig Ranch certainly fits that mold.

Favorite Prop: Keith Mitchell — Top 10 +600 (BetMGM)

I wrote up Mitchell as my favorite outright bet in our weekly Best Bets, so I decided to switch it up and list him as my favorite top-10 bet for this one.

Honestly, Mitchell is my favorite bet of the week any way you want to slice it — outright, top 10, top 20, etc. He's the best driver of the ball in the field, his irons have gotten better in every timeframe that you look at over the last two years, and he's an excellent putter. He has finished T13 or better in six of his last nine starts on the PGA TOUR and was T26 here last year.

Favorite DFS Value: Patton Kizzire ($7,100 DraftKings / $9,000 FanDuel)

After being the chalk that busted at the Valero Texas Open, everyone seems to have forgotten about Kizzire. He has quietly rattled off top-35 finishes in four of his last five starts and rates out well in the statistics that I am looking at this week.

Kizzire is ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 11th in proximity from 200+ yards, 19th in birdie or better percentage and 28th in Strokes Gained: Putting on bentgrass. The course really fits his skill set, so it's no surprise to see that he finished third here in 2021.

Good luck!

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