AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 Expert Picks: Tommy Fleetwood, 4 More Outright Bets

AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 Expert Picks: Tommy Fleetwood, 4 More Outright Bets article feature image

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Tommy Fleetwood.

  • Scottie Scheffler is favored at TPC Craig Ranch for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
  • This is the last tuneup before the PGA Championship, which means a strong field is in the Dallas area.
  • Joshua Perry has made five outright picks and lays out each of them below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson odds via PointsBet

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds

Scottie Scheffler+1000
Justin Thomas+1200
Sam Burns+1600
Will Zalatoris+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Dustin Johnson+2200
Jordan Spieth+2200
Hideki Matsuyama+2500
Joaquin Niemann+3000
Brooks Koepka+3500
Seamus Power+3500
Aaron Wise+4500
Maverick McNealy+4500
Talor Gooch+4500
Adam Hadwin+5000
Jason Kokrak+5000
Si Woo Kim+5000
Tommy Fleetwood+5000
Jason Day+5500
Jhonattan Vegas+5500
Alexander Noren+6000
Bubba Watson+6000
Cameron Champ+6000
Davis Riley+6000
Keith Mitchell+6000
Marc Leishman+6000
Adam Scott+6600
Sebastian Munoz+6600
Sepp Straka+6600
Lanto Griffin+7000
Mito Guillermo Pereira+7500
Tom Hoge+7500
Cheng-Tsung Pan+8000
Matt Kuchar+8000
Patton Kizzire+8000
Charles Howell III+9000
Aaron Rai+10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+10000
J. J. Spaun+10000
Kevin Kisner+10000
Kurt Kitayama+10000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+10000
Luke List+10000
Mackenzie Hughes+10000
Matthew NeSmith+10000
Matthew Wolff+10000
Dylan Frittelli+12500
Ian Poulter+12500
Mark Hubbard+12500
Ryan Palmer+12500
Sahith Theegala+12500
Scott Stallings+12500
Branden Grace+15000
Brandon Wu+15000
Brendon Todd+15000
Carlos Ortiz+15000
Danny Willett+15000
David Lipsky+15000
Joo-Hyung Kim+15000
Lee Westwood+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Patrick Rodgers+15000
Nick Taylor+17500
Taylor Moore+17500
Adam Schenk+20000
Andrew D. Putnam+20000
Austin Smotherman+20000
Chez Reavie+20000
Greyson Sigg+20000
Nate Lashley+20000
Stephan Jaeger+20000
Shaun Norris+20000
Ryan Armour+20000
Chase Seiffert+20000
Adam Svensson+25000
Beau Hossler+25000
Brian Stuard+25000
Charl Schwartzel+25000
Doc Redman+25000
Emiliano Grillo+25000
Francesco Molinari+25000
Hank Lebioda+25000
Harry Higgs+25000
Henrik Stenson+25000
Hudson Swafford+25000
James Hahn+25000
Martin Laird+25000
Michael Thompson+25000
Pat Perez+25000
Peter Malnati+25000
Rory Sabbatini+25000
Scott Piercy+25000
Wyndham Clark+25000
Kramer Hickok+27500
Andrew Novak+30000
Brandt Snedeker+30000
Charley Hoffman+30000
John Huh+30000
Joseph Bramlett+30000
Luke Donald+30000
Peter Uihlein+30000
Robert Streb+30000
Sam Ryder+30000
Tyler Duncan+30000
Ben Kohles+40000
Callum Tarren+40000
Dylan Wu+40000
Hayden Buckley+40000
Justin Lower+40000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+40000
Lee Hodges+40000
Trey Mullinax+40000
Vincent Whaley+40000
Wesley Bryan+40000
Austin Cook+50000
Bill Haas+50000
Brandon Hagy+50000
Brett Drewitt+50000
Brice Garnett+50000
Cameron Percy+50000
Chesson Hadley+50000
Cooper Dossey+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
David Skinns+50000
Dawie Van Der Walt+50000
Henrik Norlander+50000
J.J. Killeen+50000
James Du Preez+50000
Jared Wolfe+50000
Jason Dufner+50000
Jim Herman+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Joshua Creel+50000
Justin Leonard+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Kevin Tway+50000
Mac Meissner+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Matt Wallace+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Nick Watney+50000
Patrick Flavin+50000
Paul Barjon+50000
Richy Werenski+50000
Roger Sloan+50000
Ryan Brehm+50000
Scott Gutschewski+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
Seung-yul Noh+50000
Sung Kang+50000
Vaughn Taylor+50000
Andrew Loupe+50000
Conrad Shindler+50000
Kyle Wilshire+50000
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Not all seconds are created equal. Matthew Fitzpatrick came in runner up for us on Sunday, but it never felt like he was in contention at any point during the week.

Instead, Max Homa came out on top for the second time this season and third time in 15 months. That win rate will draw some attention for the majors, and he's still available at a decent price, coming in at 100-1 in a few spots for the PGA Championship and U.S. Open.

Homa is probably worth a look at those numbers, given the quality of his previous wins. Victories at Quail Hollow and Riviera speak for themselves in terms of major talent, and Francesco Molinari used TPC Potomac as a catapult to his Open Championship a few months later.

Now we look at the final tuneup for the PGA Championship with the AT&T Byron Nelson this week.

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The Course

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,468-yard par-72 on the outskirts of the Dallas metro area. This is the second time the course has played host to the event. Last year, K.H. Lee put together the best week with the irons of his career, gaining over eight shots to beat Sam Burns by three strokes.

It was really easy by PGA TOUR standards with 25-under par coming in as the winning number. I'd imagine we'll get at least to 20-under par again unless the weather plays a role.

Outside of that, we don’t have much to go off of besides two old Korn Ferry events. The winners won’t ring a bell to most either with Matt Bettencourt taking the 2008 title and Justin Bolli coming out on top in 2012.

Bettencourt and Bolli were both above-average iron players and had good short games, so that’s where I’ll be looking this week. Lee checked those two boxes last year, gaining over four strokes with the putter to go with that career-best approach week.

The Favorites

Scottie Scheffler opens at the top of the board coming in at around +1000. He's got three wins in his last five starts and has the Texas ties going in his favor this week.

Justin Thomas is the only one who's close this week in the odds, opening at +1200. He's been solid for a while with six top 10s in his last 10 starts, but he hasn't really been in contention much during those weeks.

After that, we have Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Will Zalatoris, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama all available in the +2000s range. Burns was the aforementioned runner-up a year ago, while Spieth was ninth.

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The Mid-Tier

I'll open up this range with Davis Riley at +6500. I obviously bet him pretty much every week, but he's worthy of a write up this time. He's finished in the top five in three of his last five starts and has ties to the Dallas area, so it should be a comfortable event. The ball striking hasn't always been great in those top finishes, but the putter is hot right now, and that's what whoever wins this thing will need.

I'm also going with Jhonattan Vegas at +5500 on PointsBet. Vegas was a disaster off the tee last week, losing five strokes, but he still finished 15th thanks to the best approach week of his career. If the irons are anywhere close to that this week, he should contend on a course where he finished ninth last year.

Next, I'm going to Tommy Fleetwood at +6500 on FanDuel. I really wasn't planning on playing Fleetwood this week, but I'll bite in this field. Also, he's at 40-1 or lower at most other books.

Prior to missing the cut at the Zurich Classic, Fleetwood didn't have a stroke-play finish worse than 22nd in his previous five starts. The iron play has been a concern much of the past year both on the PGA TOUR and in Europe, but he's gained ground there in three straight events now. The short game is probably as good as ever at the moment and has really carried him the past few months while his usual steady ball striking went awry.

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The Longshots

In this range, I'm going to Patrick Rodgers at 200-1 on PointsBet. Rodgers was 10th two weeks ago in Mexico and 21st in New Orleans with Brandon Wu. Rodgers has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts. He's struggled with the putter this year, which has normally been a strength for him, but he did seem to get things figured out in Mexico to some extent where he gained five strokes on the greens.

We'll also go to Rodgers' Zurich Classic partner Brandon Wu, who's also 200-1 on PointsBet. Wu was second in Mexico and third in Puerto Rico, so he's worked his way into contention this season.  After struggling much of the season, he's made five straight cuts as well prior to missing the weekend at the Wells Fargo. So he's been able to string together some consistency for a couple months now.

With this card, we'll have room for a live add or two, which is how we hit Lee last year when he was +6600 and trailing Spieth by two after a strong first round.

The Byron Nelson Card

  • Jhonattan Vegas +5500 (.6 units)
  • Davis Riley +6500 (.5 units)
  • Tommy Fleetwood +6500 (.5 units)
  • Brandon Wu +20000 (.17 units)
  • Patrick Rodgers +20000 (.17 units)

Total Stake: 2.04 units

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