2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds, Course Breakdown: 6 Outright Picks, Including Justin Rose & Matt Kuchar

The PGA TOUR heads to Pebble Beach this week to play the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The pro-am will return this week after it got nixed last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the tournament will return to a three-course rotation once again.

Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club will be the courses featured in the 2022 edition of the event.

The field this week is made up of 156 players, including Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and Justin Rose.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par 72 measuring 6,828 yards and featuring Poa annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,035 yards, and Monterey Peninsula is a par 71 measuring 6,958 yards.

We've backtested past tournaments at Pebble Beach Golf Links to see which metrics matter most this week.

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Past Winners at The Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am

• 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
• 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
• 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
• 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
• 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
• 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
• 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)

Let's take a look at several metrics for Pebble Beach Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Unsurprisingly, approach grades out as the most important statistic for Pebble Beach.

On a shorter course, approaches to the green are understandably more indicative of success than smashing it off of the tee. With very small greens, Pebble Beach is undoubtedly a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds:

1. Daniel Berger (+30.1) (+1400)
2. Tom Hoge (+21.6) (+6600)
3. Will Zalatoris (+20.2) (+1800)
4. Cameron Percy (+19.7) (+40000)
5. Luke Donald (+18.8) (+40000)

SG: Total on Par 72s Under 7200 Yards

Pebble Beach is uniquely short for a Par 72. This statistic will give a glimpse as to what kind of golfers play well on these types of courses.

SG: Total in Past 24 Rounds:

1. Patrick Cantlay (+50.9) (+800)
2. Brian Harman (+45.8) (+6000)
3. Daniel Berger (+40.3) (+1400)
4. Jordan Spieth (+38.2) (+2000)
5. Jason Day (+36.5) (+2000)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa and Fast)

With the course being so short, one of its main defenses is its fast Poa annua greens. Strokes Gained: Putting has historically been extremely important here, as evidenced by former winners (Spieth, Mickelson, Snedeker).

SG: Putting (POA and Fast) Last 24 Rounds:

1. Brian Stuard (+22.2) (+30000)
2. Kevin Kisner (+21.2) (+5000)
3. Wyndham Clark (+19.9) (+14000)
4. Jason Day (+17.3) (+2000)
5. Maverick McNealy (+15.5) (+2800)

Course History

Pebble Beach has historically been a specialist's course.  Every winner of this event since 2006 has a top-21 finish in a previous appearance. 

Total Strokes Gained (Pebble Beach): Gained per Round in Past 24 Rounds

1. Daniel Berger (+3.2) (+1400)
2. Maverick McNealy (+3.0) (+2800)
3. Kevin Streelman (+1.9) (+5000)
4. Jordan Spieth (+1.8) (+2000)
5. Jason Day (+1.7) (+2000)

Birdies or Better Gained

With the winning score likely to get close to 20-under par, making birdies is a must this week.

B.O.B. Gained: Past 24 Rounds

1. Patrick Cantlay (+19.4) (+800)
2. Davis Riley (+15.4) (+15000)
3. Seamus Power (+15.3) (+3000)
4. Scott Brown (+14.2) (+30000)
5. Cameron Tringale (+13.9) (+3000)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (30.4%), Birdie or Better Gained (18.6%), SG: Putting Poa and Fast (17.8%), Course History (17%) and Short Par 72 (16.5%).

1. Daniel Berger (+1400)
2. Patrick Cantlay (+800)
3. Maverick McNealy (+2800)
4. Cameron Tringale (+3000)
5. Bo Hoag (+20000)
6. Lanto Griffin (+5500)
7. Justin Rose (+2800)
8. Matthew NeSmith (+11000)
9. Tom Hoge (+6600)
10. Jason Day (+2000)

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2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Bets

Justin Rose (+2800)

I’ve been all over Justin Rose early and often during the 2022 season, and despite the fact that he hasn’t come through with a win yet, I am satisfied with the level of play.

The Englishman is playing some of the best golf he has in a long time, and Pebble Beach is the perfect course for it to all come together and result in victory.

Rose has been putting very well over the past few years, but we haven’t quite seen him striking it this well from tee to green. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach in only two measured rounds at Torrey Pines which was good for fourth in the field.

The 41-year-old now gets to play a short course and ranks 10th in SG: Total on par 72s under 7,200 yards, making Pebble Beach an ideal fit for his current game.

He comes in with some encouraging course history, having finished third at the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach and sixth at this event in 2016. This tournament can quickly turn into a putting contest, and if it does, “Rosie” has just as good of a chance as anyone in the field.

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Lanto Griffin (+4500)

Lanto Griffin finished in 30th place last week at Torrey Pines, but his path to that finish was more impressive than his eventual place on the leaderboard.

Griffin gained 3.5 strokes on approach in two measured rounds and had a pedestrian putting week, although he should be capable of improvement in that department this week at Pebble Beach.

The most encouraging aspect of his week, however, was how he finished it. The 33-year-old finished the week by shooting a 65 at Torrey Pines and seemed to be clicking on all cylinders. Oftentimes, we have seen a golfer who was hot finishing the week roll the momentum into the following event.

Prior to the Farmers Insurance Open, Griffin finished third at the American Express, which will be a somewhat similar test to what we see this week.

He's gained an average of 2.2 strokes on the field from tee to green in his past five starts and was ninth here in 2020 while gaining 3.4 strokes putting on greens that can be tricky.

The course clearly fits his eye, as he ranks fourth in strokes gained total on par 72s under 7,200 yards.

Matt Kuchar (+6600)

Prior to the Sony Open, I wrote about how although Kuchar will struggle on most courses on TOUR, he still can contend at courses that suit his game. That proved to be true as he finished in seventh place that week and gained 5.9 strokes from tee to green.

Despite his lack of distance off of the tee, his accuracy with the driver and strong putting makes Pebble Beach another one of his spots.

The 43-year-old has proven himself to be an incredible putter on fast Poa greens in both the long- and short-term and ranks sixth in the field in that category in his past 24 rounds.

Kuchar had a solid performance at the 2019 U.S. Open hosted by Pebble Beach, finishing in 16th place. He is in the twilight of his career but is more than capable of winning this event.

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Russell Knox (+8000)

If Luke List showed us anything last week, it’s that a premier ball-striker who historically can’t putt is always capable of breaking through.

Also similar to List, Knox returns to a course that he has had excellent results at throughout his career. He doesn’t have the off the tee game that List has, but he doesn’t need it this week. He just needs to find the fairway and get dialed in with the irons, which he typically does.

The veteran struggled last week, but two starts ago at the Sony Open, he finished in seventh place by gaining 5.1 strokes on approach in just two measured rounds.

Knox has some encouraging course history, having finished 14th in 2019 and 15th in 2018 prior to the aforementioned seventh-place finish last season.

Pebble Beach can get a bit windy. If it does, few have a bigger advantage than Knox, who grew up playing in wet, chilly, coastal conditions in Scotland.

Aaron Rai (+8000) 

Many golf fans got their first glimpse of Aaron Rai last week when he found himself in the final group at Torrey Pines. He struggled on Sunday and ended up finishing in sixth place for the week.

Despite being a relatively poor putter, Rai had a strong putting performance compared to his typical results, gaining 2.4 strokes on the field in two measured rounds. It's too soon to tell, but early signs may indicate that he may take kindly to Poa annua greens.

Rai possesses many of the skills that are necessary to contend at a track like Pebble Beach. He is incredible at finding the fairway and isn’t very long off the tee, which won’t hurt him here. He was solid on approach last week, gaining 1.9 strokes on the field in two measured rounds and has averaged +5.3 strokes on the field per event in fairways gained in his past five events played.

The 26-year-old is just about as automatic as it gets in finding the short grass off the tee.

He also does a good job of hitting greens in regulation, which should come in handy on the smallest greens on TOUR. In his past five starts, Rai has averaged +3.5 strokes on the field in Greens in Regulation: Gained.

He sniffed contention last week, which should prepare him for the nerves to come if he finds himself in the situation again. Don't let his lack of TOUR experience fool you — Rai has two impressive wins on the DP World Tour and is a high-class player.

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Pat Perez (+8000)

Pat Perez has the Pebble Beach form we are looking for this week and came to life last week at Torrey Pines, making him a worthy longshot this week.

The 45-year-old grew up on the West Coast (Scottsdale, Arizona) and has shown comfortability in the area throughout his career. He got his first win in California back in 2009 at the Bob Hope Classic (PGA West) and has enjoyed Pebble Beach throughout his career.

He finished fourth in 2015, 14th in 2017, and 26th last year. Perez was extremely impressive last week, finishing in sixth place and gaining 5.2  strokes on approach in two measured rounds.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has produced some older winners and is probably one of the few stops on TOUR where he can still actually win. In his past 24 rounds, Perez ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Poa Greens and 17th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pebble Beach.

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