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2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds, Course Breakdown: 6 Outright Picks, Including Justin Rose & Matt Kuchar

2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds, Course Breakdown: 6 Outright Picks, Including Justin Rose & Matt Kuchar article feature image

Donald Miralle/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Rose.

Click here for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds via PointsBet
Patrick Cantlay+550
Jordan Spieth+1600
Jason Day+2000
Justin Rose+2000
Maverick McNealy+2000
Seamus Power+2200
Cameron Tringale+2800
Matthew Fitzpatrick+3000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+4000
Lanto Griffin+4000
Ryan Palmer+4000
Brian Harman+5000
Denny McCarthy+5000
Kevin Kisner+5000
Mackenzie Hughes+5000
Mito Guillermo Pereira+5000
Kevin Streelman+6000
Matt Jones+6000
Matt Kuchar+6000
Michael Thompson+6000
Russell Knox+6000
Tom Hoge+6000
Aaron Rai+6600
Lucas Glover+6600
Min Woo Lee+6600
Andrew D. Putnam+7000
Charley Hoffman+7000
Brandt Snedeker+8000
Chez Reavie+8000
Chris Kirk+8000
Joel Dahmen+8000
Keith Mitchell+8000
Pat Perez+8000
Taylor Moore+8000
Dean Burmester+9000
Greyson Sigg+9000
Nick Taylor+9000
Patrick Rodgers+9000
Sahith Theegala+9000
Troy Merritt+9000
Adam Hadwin+10000
Alex Smalley+10000
Brandon Harkins+10000
Brendon Todd+10000
Cameron Champ+10000
Joseph Bramlett+10000
Matthew NeSmith+10000
Scott Stallings+10000
Stewart Cink+10000
Taylor Pendrith+10000
Adam Svensson+12500
Charl Schwartzel+12500
Davis Riley+12500
Dylan Frittelli+12500
Matthias Schwab+12500
Vincent Whaley+12500
Wyndham Clark+12500
Chad Ramey+15000
David Lipsky+15000
Doc Redman+15000
Hayden Buckley+15000
J. J. Spaun+15000
Kyle Stanley+15000
Peter Malnati+15000
Satoshi Kodaira+15000
Scott Piercy+15000
Stephan Jaeger+15000
Austin Eckroat+20000
Austin Smotherman+20000
Bo Hoag+20000
Camilo Villegas+20000
Kevin Chappell+20000
Kevin Tway+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Mark Hubbard+20000
Nate Lashley+20000
Nick Hardy+20000
Peter Uihlein+20000
Ryan Armour+20000
Ryan Moore+20000
Trey Mullinax+20000
Aaron Baddeley+25000
Andrew Novak+25000
Beau Hossler+25000
Brandon Hagy+25000
Brandon Wu+25000
Brian Gay+25000
Brian Stuard+25000
Bronson Burgoon+25000
Dylan Wu+25000
Jimmy Walker+25000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+25000
Paul Barjon+25000
Tyler McCumber+25000
Vaughn Taylor+25000
Bill Haas+30000
Brice Garnett+30000
Cameron Percy+30000
Chan Kim+30000
Chase Seiffert+30000
Chesson Hadley+30000
Kurt Kitayama+30000
Luke Donald+30000
Scott Brown+30000
Ted Potter Jr+30000
Tyler Duncan+30000
Andrew Landry+30000
Ben Kohles+35000
John Murphy+35000
Sean O'Hair+35000
Sung Kang+35000
Alex Cejka+40000
Austin Cook+40000
Grayson Murray+40000
Jared Wolfe+40000
Jonathan Byrd+40000
Martin Trainer+40000
Max McGreevy+40000
Nick Watney+40000
Greg Chalmers+40000
Ben Crane+50000
Bo Van Pelt+50000
Brad Marek+50000
Brett Drewitt+50000
Callum Tarren+50000
Chris Stroud+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
Darren Andrew Points+50000
David Hearn+50000
David Skinns+50000
Davis Love III+50000
Dawie Van Der Walt+50000
Jim Knous+50000
John Merrick+50000
John Senden+50000
Johnson Wagner+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Joshua Creel+50000
Justin Lower+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Mark Baldwin+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Peter Jacobsen+50000
Richy Werenski+50000
Ricky Barnes+50000
Robert Garrigus+50000
Ryuji Imada+50000
Sang-Moon Bae+50000
Scott Gutschewski+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
Seung-yul Noh+50000
Tom Lehman+50000
D.J. Trahan+50000
Richard S. Johnson+50000
Tommy Gainey+50000

The PGA TOUR heads to Pebble Beach this week to play the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

The pro-am will return this week after it got nixed last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, the tournament will return to a three-course rotation once again.

Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club will be the courses featured in the 2022 edition of the event.

The field this week is made up of 156 players, including Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, and Justin Rose.

Pebble Beach Golf Links is a par 72 measuring 6,828 yards and featuring Poa annua greens. Spyglass Hill is a par 72 measuring 7,035 yards, and Monterey Peninsula is a par 71 measuring 6,958 yards.

We've backtested past tournaments at Pebble Beach Golf Links to see which metrics matter most this week.

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Past Winners at The Pebble Beach AT&T Pro-Am

  • 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
  • 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
  • 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
  • 2018: Ted Potter Jr. (-17)
  • 2017: Jordan Spieth (-19)
  • 2016: Vaughn Taylor (-17)
  • 2015: Brandt Snedeker (-22)

Let's take a look at several metrics for Pebble Beach Golf Links to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Unsurprisingly, approach grades out as the most important statistic for Pebble Beach.

On a shorter course, approaches to the green are understandably more indicative of success than smashing it off of the tee. With very small greens, Pebble Beach is undoubtedly a second-shot golf course.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Daniel Berger (+30.1) (+1400)
  2. Tom Hoge (+21.6) (+6600)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+20.2) (+1800)
  4. Cameron Percy (+19.7) (+40000)
  5. Luke Donald (+18.8) (+40000)

SG: Total on Par 72s Under 7200 Yards

Pebble Beach is uniquely short for a Par 72. This statistic will give a glimpse as to what kind of golfers play well on these types of courses.

SG: Total in Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+50.9) (+800)
  2. Brian Harman (+45.8) (+6000)
  3. Daniel Berger (+40.3) (+1400)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+38.2) (+2000)
  5. Jason Day (+36.5) (+2000)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa and Fast)

With the course being so short, one of its main defenses is its fast Poa annua greens. Strokes Gained: Putting has historically been extremely important here, as evidenced by former winners (Spieth, Mickelson, Snedeker).

SG: Putting (POA and Fast) Last 24 Rounds:

  1. Brian Stuard (+22.2) (+30000)
  2. Kevin Kisner (+21.2) (+5000)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+19.9) (+14000)
  4. Jason Day (+17.3) (+2000)
  5. Maverick McNealy (+15.5) (+2800)

Course History

Pebble Beach has historically been a specialist's course.  Every winner of this event since 2006 has a top-21 finish in a previous appearance. 

Total Strokes Gained (Pebble Beach): Gained per Round in Past 24 Rounds

  1. Daniel Berger (+3.2) (+1400)
  2. Maverick McNealy (+3.0) (+2800)
  3. Kevin Streelman (+1.9) (+5000)
  4. Jordan Spieth (+1.8) (+2000)
  5. Jason Day (+1.7) (+2000)

Birdies or Better Gained

With the winning score likely to get close to 20-under par, making birdies is a must this week.

B.O.B. Gained: Past 24 Rounds

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+19.4) (+800)
  2. Davis Riley (+15.4) (+15000)
  3. Seamus Power (+15.3) (+3000)
  4. Scott Brown (+14.2) (+30000)
  5. Cameron Tringale (+13.9) (+3000)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (30.4%), Birdie or Better Gained (18.6%), SG: Putting Poa and Fast (17.8%), Course History (17%) and Short Par 72 (16.5%).

  1. Daniel Berger (+1400)
  2. Patrick Cantlay (+800)
  3. Maverick McNealy (+2800)
  4. Cameron Tringale (+3000)
  5. Bo Hoag (+20000)
  6. Lanto Griffin (+5500)
  7. Justin Rose (+2800)
  8. Matthew NeSmith (+11000)
  9. Tom Hoge (+6600)
  10. Jason Day (+2000)
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2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Outright Bets

Justin Rose (+2800)

I’ve been all over Justin Rose early and often during the 2022 season, and despite the fact that he hasn’t come through with a win yet, I am satisfied with the level of play.

The Englishman is playing some of the best golf he has in a long time, and Pebble Beach is the perfect course for it to all come together and result in victory.

Rose has been putting very well over the past few years, but we haven’t quite seen him striking it this well from tee to green. He gained 5.4 strokes on approach in only two measured rounds at Torrey Pines which was good for fourth in the field.

The 41-year-old now gets to play a short course and ranks 10th in SG: Total on par 72s under 7,200 yards, making Pebble Beach an ideal fit for his current game.

He comes in with some encouraging course history, having finished third at the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach and sixth at this event in 2016. This tournament can quickly turn into a putting contest, and if it does, “Rosie” has just as good of a chance as anyone in the field.

Bet Justin Rose at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

Lanto Griffin (+4500)

Lanto Griffin finished in 30th place last week at Torrey Pines, but his path to that finish was more impressive than his eventual place on the leaderboard.

Griffin gained 3.5 strokes on approach in two measured rounds and had a pedestrian putting week, although he should be capable of improvement in that department this week at Pebble Beach.

The most encouraging aspect of his week, however, was how he finished it. The 33-year-old finished the week by shooting a 65 at Torrey Pines and seemed to be clicking on all cylinders. Oftentimes, we have seen a golfer who was hot finishing the week roll the momentum into the following event.

Prior to the Farmers Insurance Open, Griffin finished third at the American Express, which will be a somewhat similar test to what we see this week.

He's gained an average of 2.2 strokes on the field from tee to green in his past five starts and was ninth here in 2020 while gaining 3.4 strokes putting on greens that can be tricky.

The course clearly fits his eye, as he ranks fourth in strokes gained total on par 72s under 7,200 yards.

Matt Kuchar (+6600)

Prior to the Sony Open, I wrote about how although Kuchar will struggle on most courses on TOUR, he still can contend at courses that suit his game. That proved to be true as he finished in seventh place that week and gained 5.9 strokes from tee to green.

Despite his lack of distance off of the tee, his accuracy with the driver and strong putting makes Pebble Beach another one of his spots.

The 43-year-old has proven himself to be an incredible putter on fast Poa greens in both the long- and short-term and ranks sixth in the field in that category in his past 24 rounds.

Kuchar had a solid performance at the 2019 U.S. Open hosted by Pebble Beach, finishing in 16th place. He is in the twilight of his career but is more than capable of winning this event.

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Russell Knox (+8000)

If Luke List showed us anything last week, it’s that a premier ball-striker who historically can’t putt is always capable of breaking through.

Also similar to List, Knox returns to a course that he has had excellent results at throughout his career. He doesn’t have the off the tee game that List has, but he doesn’t need it this week. He just needs to find the fairway and get dialed in with the irons, which he typically does.

The veteran struggled last week, but two starts ago at the Sony Open, he finished in seventh place by gaining 5.1 strokes on approach in just two measured rounds.

Knox has some encouraging course history, having finished 14th in 2019 and 15th in 2018 prior to the aforementioned seventh-place finish last season.

Pebble Beach can get a bit windy. If it does, few have a bigger advantage than Knox, who grew up playing in wet, chilly, coastal conditions in Scotland.

Aaron Rai (+8000) 

Many golf fans got their first glimpse of Aaron Rai last week when he found himself in the final group at Torrey Pines. He struggled on Sunday and ended up finishing in sixth place for the week.

Despite being a relatively poor putter, Rai had a strong putting performance compared to his typical results, gaining 2.4 strokes on the field in two measured rounds. It's too soon to tell, but early signs may indicate that he may take kindly to Poa annua greens.

Rai possesses many of the skills that are necessary to contend at a track like Pebble Beach. He is incredible at finding the fairway and isn’t very long off the tee, which won’t hurt him here. He was solid on approach last week, gaining 1.9 strokes on the field in two measured rounds and has averaged +5.3 strokes on the field per event in fairways gained in his past five events played.

The 26-year-old is just about as automatic as it gets in finding the short grass off the tee.

He also does a good job of hitting greens in regulation, which should come in handy on the smallest greens on TOUR. In his past five starts, Rai has averaged +3.5 strokes on the field in Greens in Regulation: Gained.

He sniffed contention last week, which should prepare him for the nerves to come if he finds himself in the situation again. Don't let his lack of TOUR experience fool you — Rai has two impressive wins on the DP World Tour and is a high-class player.

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Pat Perez (+8000)

Pat Perez has the Pebble Beach form we are looking for this week and came to life last week at Torrey Pines, making him a worthy longshot this week.

The 45-year-old grew up on the West Coast (Scottsdale, Arizona) and has shown comfortability in the area throughout his career. He got his first win in California back in 2009 at the Bob Hope Classic (PGA West) and has enjoyed Pebble Beach throughout his career.

He finished fourth in 2015, 14th in 2017, and 26th last year. Perez was extremely impressive last week, finishing in sixth place and gaining 5.2  strokes on approach in two measured rounds.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has produced some older winners and is probably one of the few stops on TOUR where he can still actually win. In his past 24 rounds, Perez ranks 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting on Fast Poa Greens and 17th in Strokes Gained: Total at Pebble Beach.

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