2022 Farmers Insurance Open Preview: Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau Among 4 Who Fit Torrey Pines

2022 Farmers Insurance Open Odds via BetMGM

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The PGA TOUR season ramps up this week as we head to historic Torrey Pines Golf Course for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open.

I personally consider this event the true start of the PGA TOUR season as it draws big names, a loaded prize pool, and a difficult test; something many golf fans have been craving.

Torrey Pines Golf Club (South) is a Par 72 measuring 7,569 yards. Golfers will play three rounds on the South Course and one round on the North Course.

The South Course is the far more difficult of the two and features Poa annua greens. The North Course is 7,258 yards and features Bentgrass greens.

The 2022 Farmers Insurance Open field is a full-field event comprised of 156 golfers. The field is very strong and will include Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, and Tony Finau.

We've backtested past tournaments at Torrey Pines to see which metrics matter this week.

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Past Winners at The Farmers Insurance Open

• 2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
• 2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
• 2019: Justin Rose (-21)
• 2018: Jason Day (-10)
• 2017: Jon Rahm (-13)
• 2016: Brandt Snedeker (-6)
• 2015: Jason Day (-9)

Let's take a look at several metrics for Torrey Pines to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Approach

Hitting greens will be important due to the difficult around the green areas at Torrey Pines. Strokes Gained: Approach has been the most indicative statistic of top ten finishers at the course historically.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Daniel Berger (+29.8) (+2200)
2. Tom Hoge (+21.9) (+8000)
3. Talor Gooch (+21.0) (+5000)
4. Justin Thomas (+20.8) (+1200)
5. Jon Rahm (+19.8) (+750)

Driving Distance

Torrey Pines is a long course, and distance will absolutely be a major factor. Average driving distance is a far greater factor here than your average TOUR event, while driving accuracy is a lesser factor. We are most definitely looking at a bomber's track this week.

Driving Distance per round in past 24 rounds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+26.5) (+2000)
2. Matthew Wolff (+21.8) (+6600)
3. Joseph Bramlett (+20.4) (+17500)
4. Cameron Young (+20.1) (+30000)
5. Peter Uihlein (+19.8) (+50000)

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Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)

We typically see a lot of golfers play well in this area year after year. One determining factor in the consistent results is whether or not golfers prefer the Poa out West to other surfaces.

Great Poa putters typically play very well in California.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa) in past 24 rounds:

1. Jonas Blixt (+25.0) (+150000)
2. Maverick McNealy(+21.6) (+7000)
3. Brian Stuard (+19.0) (+40000)
4. Jon Rahm (+18.8) (+750)
5. Wyndham Clark (+18.7) (+16000)
   

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Par 4: 450-500 Yards

Torrey Pines has a total of six Par 4s between 450 and 500 yards on the South Course. To play well this week, golfers will need to outplay the field on these particular holes.

Total Par 4: 450-500 in past 24 rounds

1. Maverick McNealy (+16.6) (+7000)
2. Jon Rahm (+16.3) (+750)
3. Adam Schenk (+12.5) (+27500)
4. Pat Perez (+11.7) (+30000)
5. Lanto Griffin (+9.0) (+7000)

Par 5: 550-600 Yards

With all four Par 5s at the Torrey Pines South Course measuring between 550 and 600 yards, the long hitters will have a major advantage. The course can be relatively difficult, so it's an absolute must to take care of the Par 5s and make birdies.

Par 5: 550-600 in past 24 rounds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+13.2) (+2000)
2. Luke List (+12.3) (+7000)
3. Matthew Wolff (+10.7) (+6600)
4. Tom Hoge (+10.7) (+8000)
5. Max Homa (+10.4) (+6600)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (27%), Driving Distance (20%), Par 4: 450-500 (19%), Par 5: 550-600 (19%) and SG: Putting POA (15%).

1. Jon Rahm (+750)
2. Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
3. Maverick McNealy (+7000)
4. Matthew Wolff (+6600)
5. Justin Thomas (+1200)
6. Luke List (+7000)
7. Daniel Berger (+2200)
8. Hank Lebioda (+35000)
9. Sam Burns (+2500)
10. Tom Hoge (+8000)

2022 Farmers Insurance Open Outright Bets

Bryson DeChambeau +2200 (DraftKings)

When evaluating an odds board, there are a handful of golfers whom I believe need to be bet on when they eclipse the +2000 threshold. DeChambeau is one of those golfers. With eight PGA TOUR victories on his resume, there are very few golfers on TOUR who carry the same amount of win equity as the mercurial 28-year-old.

Despite two missed cuts in his only two starts at The Farmers Insurance Open, I still believe Torrey Pines is a good course fit for Bryson. It is a long and classic golf course, and he’s had plenty of success on similar tracks throughout his career. Growing up in California, Bryson has established himself as one of the best west coast Poa annua putters on TOUR, with four of his professional wins coming on the putting surface.

He may not have the results at Torrey Pines, but he has had great recent success in California. He had some strong finishes at Riviera Country Club (fifth in 2020, 15th in 2019) and finished fourth at the 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park (San Francisco). Not to be forgotten, DeChambeau was also involved at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines before collapsing down the stretch.

Bryson has the distance off of the tee and underrated short game and putting to tame Torrey Pines.

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Tony Finau +3000 (bet365):

Despite the mediocre performance last week, there is little doubt that Tony Finau plays his best golf during the PGA TOUR's California swing. In 2021, Finau finished fourth, second, second at American Express, Farmers, and Genesis, exemplifying his California prowess. At Torrey Pines specifically, the 32-year-old has arguably the most impressive course history of anyone in the field. In his past five starts at the event, his finishes are: fourth, sixth, 13th, sixth, second.

Finau would be the first to tell you that he expects better of himself at PGA West, but the start last week wasn't all bad. Statistically, he played relatively well, gaining 2.8 strokes on approach in two rounds. Torrey Pines is a better fit for Finau's skill set. He can let it rip off the tee and take advantage of a long golf course that many other players in the field don't have the firepower for.

There were questions in the past about whether or not Finau could actually win a golf tournament, but his victory at The Northern Trust should put those whispers to rest. He is capable of getting it done, and this is the spot on the schedule where a win is most likely.

Matthew Wolff +6600 (BetMGM):

When a golfer comes off of a missed cut in an event in which he was a popular player, oftentimes we see a “missed cut discount” the following week. I believe we are getting a good opportunity to buy low on Matthew Wolff this week. It’s no secret that the 22-year-old is extremely volatile, and with volatile players come missed cuts. However, I also believe there is a good deal of win equity in Wolff. He has proven in strong fields that he can compete with the best in the world and rise to the occasion.

While missed cuts are often a sign of a golfer being in poor form, the same rules haven’t necessarily applied to Wolff throughout the early stages of his career. In 2019, the former Oklahoma State standout missed the cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and went on to earn his first PGA TOUR victory the following week at the 3M Open. Similarly in 2020, Wolff missed the cut at the Travelers Championship and responded the next week by coming in second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Plenty of golfers show a run of good form before breaking through for a PGA TOUR win, but Matthew Wolff isn’t one of them.

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Francesco Molinari +8000 (PointsBet):

Less than two years ago, Francesco Molinari was widely regarded as one of the best golfers on the planet. Since then, the Italian has been on a steep downward trajectory. Since his collapse on the back nine at Augusta, he has only four top ten's on the PGA TOUR. Perhaps not coincidentally, all four of those top ten's have taken place in the state of California.

Last season, Molinari had a brief span of a month when he was playing great golf akin to the Molinari of 2019. That stretch started at The American Express and ended at The Genesis. Three of the four events in that span ended with a top 10 (eighth, 10th, eighth). After finishing in sixth place last week at The American Express, it would seem that history may be repeating itself. The 39-year-old gained 4.7 strokes from tee to green in the two measured rounds at PGA West Stadium Course, including 2.2 strokes gained on approach.

If by chance, the elite version of Francesco Molinari is back, this is a very small price to pay for the opportunity to buy back in.