2022 Farmers Insurance Open Final Round Odds & Picks: Can Jason Day Hold Off Will Zalatoris at Torrey Pines?

2022 Farmers Insurance Open Final Round Odds & Picks: Can Jason Day Hold Off Will Zalatoris at Torrey Pines? article feature image

Donald Miralle/Getty Images. Pictured: Jason Day.

  • The 2022 Farmers Insurance Open is setup for a wild finish, with Will Zalatoris and Jason Day leading the way.
  • But 10 other players are within three shots of the lead at the challegning Torrey Pines South Course, including Jon Rahm (one back) and Justin Thomas (two back).
  • Here's how Chris Murphy is betting the final round.

Updated 2022 Farmers Insurance Open Odds

Jon Rahm+240
Will Zalatoris+400
Jason Day+450
Justin Thomas+900
Sungjae Im+1200
Aaron Rai+1400
Cameron Tringale+2200
Dustin Johnson+2800
Billy Horschel+4000
Maverick McNealy+4000
Ryan Palmer+4000
Si Woo Kim+4000
Cameron Young+6600

*Odds via PointsBet as of Saturday morning.

It was a wild Friday at Torrey Pines as the third round of the Farmers Insurance Open saw the three players tied for the lead going into the day leaving without a share of the last tee time for Saturday's final round.

Understandably, Adam Schenk had problems following up his incredible second round in an unfamiliar position from the final tee time, alongside two of the best players in the world. The bigger shock was certainly the struggles of Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm. They were unable to get anything going all day, which led to them combining to shoot one over.

Several other players took advantage of the final group's issues, as Will Zalatoris shot up the leaderboard with a 7-under 65, which included seven missed birdie putts inside of 17 feet. He certainly could've gone really low with a few more putts dropping, but instead he will settle for a tie for the lead alongside two-time winner of this event, Jason Day.

Day found his stride on Friday as he gained strokes in all metrics and showed signs of being the putter from his peak seasons. His 5-under 67 leaves him at 14-under in a tie with Zalatoris. One shot back of the leaders is Englishman Aaron Rai who fired a 4-under round, and he will close out the final group. Rahm is also just one shot back after his even-par day, and he will be joined by Sungjae Im and Cameron Tringale in the penultimate group.

We saw today and even over the summer at the U.S. Open how Torrey Pines can be a difficult place to play with a lead. There will be many players with a legitimate shot to pull off the win on Saturday evening, creating an exciting betting market for us heading into the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open.

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Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, ball-striking and tee-to-green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4

As is customary for me in this spot, I am sticking with my pick of Jason Day last night. We added him to the card at +5000, and he certainly didn't disappoint in his third round. It was a vintage performance for the Australian who gained nearly two strokes on the field with his ball-striking, but he was even better on the greens gaining 2.23 shots. It may come as a surprise, but we are now four years removed from the times when Day was one of the best putters in the world. In fact, he has regressed in that category year over year since then, and he finished just barely inside of the top 100 in Strokes Gained: Putting last season.

Day showed us on Friday that he still has that ability in there, and obviously with two wins on this course, he has a great comfort on these greens. He is one player that I would not be surprised to see repeat his putting day during the final round and find a way to bring home his third trophy from the Farmers.

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My hedge on Day and my other pick below is going to be with the man himself, Jon Rahm at +275 on DraftKings. Clearly, the Spaniard hasn't had his best stuff this week, yet there he is just one shot back going into the final round. I noted in this column yesterday that Rahm was really spraying the ball off the tee on the North Course on Thursday, but he really dialed that back in during Friday's round.

His problem this time around was shaky iron play and some poor touch around the greens. As we saw with him quickly turning things around with his driver on Friday, we can expect him to also bounce back on Saturday in the other areas of his game. If he puts the full bag together in the final round, it can certainly be game over for the rest of this field, especially a final group that will have to watch him, likely fist pumping ahead of them.

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Call me a homer if you want, but I'm also sticking with another of my top picks this week. Maverick McNealy was my pick to win to start the week, and after a hole-in-one jumpstarted his third round, he is just three shots back going into Saturday. McNealy was the most consistent player in the field throughout his bag on Friday as he gained right around one shot on the field in every strokes gained category.

McNealy has the ability to go low at any given time, and part of that comes with his hot putter. He can get the flatstick going with the best of them, which makes him an intriguing play further down the leaderboard. I love the consistency he has shown across the last two days on the South Course, especially with the all-important irons and putter. If he can put it all together one more time on Saturday, he will be there with a chance, which is all you can ask for at +4000 on BetMGM.

3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4

I've got one buy from the final group in Jason Day, which leaves me with a couple of others that I am fading by default. I'll start with Will Zalatoris, who I am a big fan of, and frankly it will be quite painful if I miss his first win tomorrow. My reasons for fading Willy Z on Saturday is in part because I've got my dollars on others around him, but also because I have some big concerns about his putter.

2022 american express-odds-pick-prediction-matchup-will zalatoris
Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Will Zalatoris.

I mentioned in the leadup that he missed seven birdie putts within 17 feet on Friday, which only tells part of the story. Two of those putts were from 3'1" and 4'2". He looked extremely uncomfortable putting both of them, along with another miss from within eight feet. My big concern is that with the added pressure of a final group in the final round on TOUR, he is going to have to be clutch in converting those types of putts.

There will come a time in the round where he will need one of those, whether for birdie or par, in order to get or keep momentum going in the right direction, and that's where my concern is on Saturday. It's all I've got and maybe I'm just convincing myself on a guy who gained 6.64 shots tee to green, including 3.69 strokes on approach on Friday.

Next is a little bit more of my traditional fade with Aaron Rai. He is coming over from the DP World Tour, and it looks like he will be playing quite a bit more on the PGA side this season. It's great to see players like him make the move after he has posted some solid results in big field events of WGCs and Majors. This, however, will be his first time really being in the limelight on the big stage. Rai does have two wins overseas with his biggest being from the 2020 Scottish Open, which also draws some names even if that one was a lighter field due to the pandemic.

He certainly is a player with a couple of wins under his belt, which gives him a leg up on Zalatoris, but we see time and again that this pressure generally hits players a bit differently. Many of them usually need a couple of times in this moment before they can breakthrough on the PGA Tour, and that is what I am anticipating with Rai on Saturday. He's been a great story this week, and I think he finds a solid finish, but I don't think he stays in the mix for the win down the back nine tomorrow.

Sungjae Im is the final Saturday fade as we put one on the board based on the strokes gained numbers. He has had a solid week this week, but he has not had his irons in either round on the South Course.

Im lost .65 shots to the field on approach in both of his rounds on Torrey Pines South this week, but he has made up for it with an absurd 4.86 shots gained around the greens across those two rounds. When you add in the 4.73 strokes he has gained putting, you can understand how he's at the top of the board despite his lackluster iron play. I'll play the variance game with the South Korean in the final round and expect those numbers to come back to Earth for a player that typically struggles to find his iron game when its down.

StrokesGained Data for All Players on Torrey Pines South

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