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Updated 2022 Genesis Invitational Odds, Picks: Riviera Country Club Fits Rory McIlroy & Dustin Johnson

Updated 2022 Genesis Invitational Odds, Picks: Riviera Country Club Fits Rory McIlroy & Dustin Johnson article feature image
Credit:

Oisin Keniry/Getty Images. Pictured: Dustin Johnson.

Click here for full updated Genesis Invitational odds from PointsBet
Player Odds
Jon Rahm +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1100
Justin Thomas +1500
Dustin Johnson +1600
Rory McIlroy +2000
Cameron Smith +2200
Collin Morikawa +2200
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
Viktor Hovland +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Scottie Scheffler +2800
Will Zalatoris +2800
Bubba Watson +3300
Matthew Fitzpatrick +3300
Brooks Koepka +3500
Sam Burns +3500
Adam Scott +4000
Jordan Spieth +4000
Im Sung-jae +5000
Marc Leishman +5000
Max Homa +5000
Talor Gooch +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Joaquin Niemann +6000
Seamus Power +6000
Luke List +6600
Si Woo Kim +6600
Paul Casey +7000
Russell Henley +7000
Sergio Garcia +7000
Jason Kokrak +8000
Kevin Na +8000
Maverick McNealy +8000
Thomas Pieters +8000
Abraham Ancer +9000
Alexander Noren +9000
Patrick Reed +9000
Cameron Tringale +10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
Corey Conners +10000
Erik Van Rooyen +10000
Harold Varner III +10000
Lanto Griffin +10000
Mackenzie Hughes +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Adam Hadwin +12500
Jhonattan Vegas +12500
Robert MacIntyre +12500
Sahith Theegala +12500
Aaron Wise +15000
Carlos Ortiz +15000
Francesco Molinari +15000
Keegan Bradley +15000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +15000
Martin Laird +15000
Matt Jones +15000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Ryan Palmer +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Troy Merritt +15000
Aaron Rai +17500
Andrew D. Putnam +17500
Joel Dahmen +17500
Russell Knox +17500
Branden Grace +20000
Cameron Davis +20000
Cameron Young +20000
Charley Hoffman +20000
Doug Ghim +20000
Min Woo Lee +20000
Mito Guillermo Pereira +20000
Pat Perez +20000
Rickie Fowler +20000
Sebastian Munoz +20000
Taylor Pendrith +20000
Cameron Champ +25000
James Hahn +25000
Lee Hodges +25000
Patrick Rodgers +25000
Wyndham Clark +25000
Beau Hossler +30000
Charl Schwartzel +30000
Chez Reavie +30000
J. J. Spaun +30000
JT Poston +30000
Matt Wallace +30000
Matthew NeSmith +30000
Scott Stallings +30000
Vincent Whaley +30000
Brendan Steele +35000
Dylan Frittelli +35000
Emiliano Grillo +35000
Andrew Landry +40000
Doc Redman +40000
Harry Higgs +40000
Robert Streb +40000
Sepp Straka +40000
Adam Long +50000
Adam Schenk +50000
Cheng-Tsung Pan +50000
Danny Lee +50000
David Lipsky +50000
Henrik Norlander +50000
Kramer Hickok +50000
Kyle Stanley +50000
Michael Brennan +50000
Peter Malnati +50000
Sam Ryder +50000
Scott Piercy +50000
Anirban Lahiri +60000
Brian Stuard +60000
Hank Lebioda +60000
Jaekyeong Lee +75000
Kevin Tway +75000
Roger Sloan +75000
Aaron Beverly +100000
Brandon Hagy +100000
Chesson Hadley +100000
Nick Watney +100000

The PGA TOUR’s West Coast swing makes its final stop at historic Riviera Country Club to play the 2022 Genesis Invitational. This event is consistently one of the best tournaments of the year at one of the most iconic golf courses in the world.

Riviera Country Club is a Par 71 that measures 7,322 yards. The fairways and rough consist of Kikuyu grass, and the greens are Poa annua.

The Genesis Invitational field will consist of 121 players and is absolutely stacked at the top and very deep. All of the top-10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up at Riviera this week, and it’s looking like it will be the strongest field in the history of the event.

We’ve backtested past tournaments at Riviera Country Club to see which metrics matter most this week.

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Past Winners at The Genesis Invitational

  • 2021: Max Homa (-12)
  • 2020: Adam Scott (-11)
  • 2019: J.B. Holmes (-14)
  • 2018: Bubba Watson (-12)
  • 2017: Dustin Johnson (-17)
  • 2016: Bubba Watson (-15)
  • 2015: James Hahn (-6)

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Riviera Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

I rarely use Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in these models, but I find it to be especially important this week. Riviera requires golfers to play well in all facets of their game.

Ball striking includes both off the tee and approach, as one or the other will not be enough this week. Golfers will need to excel with the driver and irons this week if they want to contend.

Total Strokes Gained: Ball Striking in Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jon Rahm (+37.6) (+900)
  2. Luke List (+36.1) (+9000)
  3. Will Zalatoris (+30.9) (+3300)
  4. Viktor Hovland (+27.8) (+2500)
  5. Sungjae Im (+27.2) (+4000)

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

While off the tee is included in the ball striking stat, I am double-dipping here by incorporating SG: Off the Tee. Driving distance is very important, as the course is long and there are many fairway bunkers that require length to carry.

Driving accuracy is also important because the Kikuya rough can be quite penal.

SG: OTT Round in Past 24 Rounds

  1. Jon Rahm (+23.3) (+900)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+20.4) (+2200) 
  3. Sungjae Im (+19.0) (+4000)
  4. Cameron Young (+18.2) (+20000)
  5. Luke List (+16.8) (+9000)
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Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa and Fast)

Riviera’s fast and firm greens are notoriously difficult. Putts from 10 feet and in are far from a guarantee, and this is an area we will see many golfers struggle in this week.

SG: Putting (Poa and Fast) Past 24 Rounds

  1. Brian Stuard (+21.4) (+60000)
  2. J.T. Poston (+19.9 (+30000)
  3. Wyndham Clark (+21.6) (+25000)
  4. Sepp Straka (+17.5) (+35000)
  5. Patrick Reed (+17.1) (+8000)

3-Putt Avoidance

Poa can get really bumpy late in the day, making tough par saves late in the tournament even more difficult. Average three-putts per round are much higher at Riviera than the TOUR average. 

3-Putt Avoidance: Gained in Past 24 Rounds

  1. Talor Gooch (+9.27) (+6000)
  2. Matt Jones (+7.28) (+16000)
  3. Beau Hossler (+6.79) (+30000)
  4. Sam Burns (+5.91) (+3500)
  5. Cameron Smith (+5.79) (+2200)

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

This event will be far from a birdie-fest. As mentioned, Riviera is a true all-around test.

With fairways relatively difficult to hit, playing out of the rough will create a lot of missed greens. Golfers will need to make some tricky up and downs to get away with par at Riviera.

SG: ARG: past 24 rounds

  1. Sungjae Im (+16.5) (+4000)
  2. Robert MacIntyre (+11.6) (+14000)
  3. Matt Kuchar (+11.0) (+1750)
  4. Harold Varner III (+10.9) (+12500)
  5. Luke List (+10.6) (+9000)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: BS (28%), SG: OTT (24%), SG: Putting Poa and Fast (17%), SG: ARG (17%) and 3-Putt Avoidance (14%).

  1. Patrick Cantlay (+1200)
  2. Jon Rahm (+900)
  3. Sam Burns (+3500)
  4. Sungjae Im (+4000)
  5. Rory McIlroy (+2200)
  6. Maverick McNealy (+10000)
  7. Justin Thomas (+1600)
  8. Will Zalatoris (+3300)
  9. Talor Gooch (+6000)
  10. Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
GolfBet

2022 Genesis Invitational Outright Bets

Dustin Johnson (+1800)

The younger talent on the PGA TOUR is arguably as good as it’s ever been at the moment. Jon Rahm is playing at an all-time level, Patrick Cantlay seems to contend every single week, and Collin Morikawa has two majors at the age of 25.

With loads of hype surrounding these players, it would seem that future Hall-of-Famer Dustin Johnson has slipped through the cracks this week. For a golfer who hasn’t finished outside of the top 16 in his past eight starts at Riviera, including a win and three additional top-five finishes, there is extraordinary value on this number.

We last saw DJ at Torrey Pines, where he was fresh off of a long layoff from playing, and he managed to play very well despite the rust. He finished in 25th and gained 8.3 strokes from tee to green.

The following week, he found himself in contention at the Saudi International and was dominant from tee to green but failed to sink enough putts to fall to win.

With evidence of peaking form from the 37-year-old, Riviera is one of the most likely spots on TOUR for Johnson to notch his 25th PGA TOUR victory.

Rory McIlroy (+2200)

Sticking with the undervalued theme, this number is a bit disrespectful to McIlroy, in my opinion.

In his most recent start at the Dubai Desert Classic, he was in position to win on the 18th hole, but his ball found the water to end his chances.

McIlroy has a strong history at Riviera, including three top-five finishes in his past three starts.

The track is an immaculate fit for Rory, who hits the ball long and straight. He has also gained 0.7 strokes on the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green for his career, which is an underrated part of his game that will come in handy this week.

There is a strong correlation between Quail Hollow and Riviera, due to the obvious overlap with the winners at each event. The Northern Irishman has won at Quail Hollow twice, including last year when he gained 5.3 strokes on approach.

The most appealing aspect about McIlroy this week is the potential return of his elite driving ability. When he’s in form with the driver, there is no one on TOUR (perhaps with the exception of Jon Rahm), who possesses his ability to hit it both long and straight. He gained almost four strokes off the tee in Dubai and seems to be getting along well with his new TaylorMade Stealth driver.

Rory has a lot to prove this year, and his path back to the top starts with a trip to one of golf’s most historic courses.

Marc Leishman (+5500)

Leishman checks all the boxes this week and is in the spot on the betting board where he has historically gotten it done. His most recent win on TOUR (individually) was at the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

That week, he was in the 50-1 range. Now, he heads to a course that has some correlation to Torrey Pines. He has also shown a liking to Riviera, where he has two top-five finishes in his past six tries.

The Australian has gained strokes from tee to green in six consecutive starts and has seemingly begun to figure out the driving woes he faced last season. It will be important to avoid three-putts and to scramble around the green this week, and those are two areas in which Leishman excels.

In this elite field, he ranks 31st in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 18th in three-putts avoided.

The 38-year-old has win equity, and when he gets himself in contention, is one of the more clutch putters on the PGA TOUR. He also comes into the event off of a hot round in his most recent start at the Saudi International, where he finished his final round with a 64 (-6).

If you’re backing an elite player this week, Leishman is a name you don’t want to see lurking on Sunday.

Joaquin Niemann (+6600)

Joaquin Niemann is incredibly talented. He’s another golfer who I feel is a bit mispriced in this field. The Chilean hits the ball long and straight, which is a major piece of the puzzle when trying to tame Riviera.

He was impressive in his first start of the season at Torrey Pines, where he finished in sixth place and gained 7.6 strokes from tee to green. I also like the fact that Niemann won’t have to keep up with a birdie-fest and putt lights out in order to win.

If he can have a ceiling ball-striking week and keep the ball in play, he can get away with having an above-average putting week.

Niemann also fits the profile of a golfer who played well at Quail Hollow. He finished 18th last season at Wells Fargo and gained 5.2 strokes off the tee. While this would admittedly be a major jump in his career and a massive feat, this is an upside play as the 23-year-old has the raw talent to make the leap.

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