2022 Honda Classic Betting Odds & 5 Picks for Russell Knox, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, More

It wasn't a good week at the Genesis since I wasn't on Joaquin Niemann.

So now our attention heads out to Florida for the first time this year. The shift to the other coast can lead to some value at times for guys who feel more comfortable playing out east as opposed to the California courses.

The Florida swing opens this year at PGA National with the Honda Classic, which has been a good spot in the past for us with a Matt Jones first round leader bet last year and the Keith Mitchell outright a few years earlier.

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The Course

PGA National always ranks as one of the most difficult stops on TOUR.

This par 70 measures 7,110 yards and presents danger at basically every turn. Water is in play on virtually each hole, forcing players to utilize a more conservative style.

It also starts the Florida swing and a shift to Bermuda greens, which will come as a welcome change to players who struggled on the bumpy Poa Annua prevalent on the West Coast.

While it isn’t a long course, bombers who can stay dry have had an advantage the last few years. Mitchell and Brooks Koepka were in the top-two spots a couple years ago, while Justin Thomas and Luke List went to a playoff the year before.

If big hitters can keep the ball in play off the tee, they’ll set up a lot of birdie opportunities to offset the bogeys that can litter the scorecard here.

The Favorites

The 2020 champ, Sungjae Im, opens at the top of the board between +1000 and +1200 depending on where you look. So far in his career, he's had a tendency to play better once the TOUR shifts coasts, so his good run of form in California could be a sign of bigger things to come this year.

Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen and Joaquin Niemann come in between +1600 and +1800. Berger has by far the best track record here, finishing inside the top 5 twice, including a playoff loss to Padraig Harrington in 2015. Health is still the question there. He said his back is fine, but the missed cut in Phoenix means I'll be waiting to see some positive signs before going back that direction.

Brooks Koepka and Billy Horschel highlight the +2000s range. Koepka and Horschel have both played well here at times, but with so much trouble in play, they've also thrown in some missed cuts as well.

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The Mid-Tier

We'll open here with Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +5500 on bet365. He's had a good run so far early in the year, but has shown so far that he's a better putter on Bermuda. He's also going to catch my attention on any tough course that requires a good short game after he won at Valderrama fairly easily a few years ago.

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I'm also going with Russell Knox at +6500 on DraftKings. Knox has played well here in the past, finishing top three twice, but it's been awhile since he's shown that type of game at PGA National. His approach has been in good shape so far this year and led to some consistent results out west on courses like Torrey and Riviera that shouldn't really suit his style.

We'll take another chance here with Denny McCarthy at +6600 on PointsBet. McCarthy is going to have to rely on the short game to contend, but a third-place finish last year shows this is a course where he can compete. He's also a noticeably better putter on Bermuda. The ball striking will always be average at best, but he's shown signs of life there as well with top-15 finishes at the Amex and Pebble Beach.

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I'll finish this range with Chris Kirk at +7000 on DraftKings. On shorter courses with a weaker field and no poa, Kirk always pops up for me. He played well a couple weeks ago in Phoenix, finishing 14th. He's also gained strokes off the tee in every event in 2022. This was the part of the schedule he got rolling a year ago, finishing inside the top 25 in five of six starts between Pebble Beach and Harbour Town, so I'll keep an eye on him for the near future at least while we head to places he's had recent success.

The Longshots

This is a spot where a big number can hit. Four of the last nine winners were 200-1 or higher. With so much trouble, even the steadiest ball strikers can have a mistimed approach and card a big number, which appears to lead to more randomness atop the leaderboard.

My one longshot will be Paul Barjon at 500-1 on bet365. Barjon has been driving the ball well, gaining strokes in seven straight events off the tee. The rest of the game has been inconsistent, but he's gained strokes in each category at different times in 2022. He's also had a recent taste of contention when he placed 10th at the Amex.

The Honda Card

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500 (.6 units)
• Russell Knox +6500 (.5 units)
• Denny McCarthy +6600 (.5 units)
• Chris Kirk +7000 (.47 units)
• Paul Barjon +50000 (.07 units)

Total Stake: 2.14 units

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