Updated 2022 Honda Classic Odds & 9 Expert Picks for Brooks Koepka, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Brooks Koepka (left) and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
Click for updated Honda Classic odds via BetMGM
|Charles Howell III||+6600|
|Dawie van der Walt||+50000|
After a thrilling West Coast swing to start 2022, the PGA TOUR heads to Florida this week for the 2022 Honda Classic.
This starts a fantastic part of the golf season, with the Arnold Palmer Invitational and PLAYERS not far behind. And once we get past the Florida swing of events, we can start really looking toward Augusta.
This week, former Honda Classic champion Sungjae Im is favored in a field headlined by four-time major winner Brooks Koepka, who is on a mission after falling to No. 20 in the world earlier this year. Koepka is already up to 15th, and a win at PGA National would be another big boost.
Our GolfBet staff has analyzed the odds board this week and found its favorite picks for the week in Palm Beach Gardens. Check out their best bets for the week, including outright bets and a prop.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000
Jason Sobel: With a subpar field, this feels like a good time to take a chance on an outright selection – and going with a player who owns exactly one career top-10 on the PGA TOUR certainly qualifies as taking a chance.
Don’t get this fact confused, though, for a player who could be in over his head for a victory. Bezuidenhout owns three finishes of 17th or better in his last seven stateside starts and already owns three career wins on the DP World (Euro) Tour over the past three years.
It’s not just those wins which should give us hope, but how he won ‘em. In 2019, he posted weekend scores of just 69-71 to win the Estrella Damm N.A. Andalucia Masters at 10-under, six strokes better than anyone else; the next year, he posted a 14-under total to win the Alfred Dunhill Championship by four; and a few weeks later, he won the South African Open at 18-under, five better than anyone else.
The point is not only has he buried his fellow contenders in these few situations, but he’s tended to do it on a few occasions when scores weren’t too low, which will be the case again this week. Bezuidenhout owns some nice history in the state of Florida, with top-20 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational each of the past two years and his metrics should fit PGA National, as he ranks 34th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 53rd in scrambling this season.
This should be a great week to sprinkle some outright plays amongst a few of the non-favorites and I love starting the card with some value on Bezuidenhout, who has what it takes to win at this level.
Alex Noren +3500
Chris Murphy: I’ll give you a second to get over the sticker shock… Now, once we get past the fact we are looking to pay a sub 40 price on Alex Noren, who is still seeking his first win in the states, we can see the real potential of this pick.
Noren has begun to show the form and skillset that made him the No. 14 player in the world four years ago. He came into that week at the Honda in 2018 fresh off of a Monday playoff loss to Jason Day at the Farmers and proceeded to get right back into contention with a third-place finish at PGA National.
It wasn’t long after that where his game began to slip, but signs of resurgence have been around since the end of last season where he closed with three top-10s in his final five events, including two in the elite playoff fields.
The Swede has played solidly in 2022, with his peak thus far when he was in contention on Sunday at the Waste Management before ultimately finishing T6. His game carried over to the Genesis, where he gained more than three shots on approach against that elite field but struggled to find his putter on the pa greens.
Noren now comes into a week at the Honda on his preferred bermuda greens and in scoring conditions that are a better fit for his game. He is one that usually stands out in tougher events, but maybe without golf’s elite at the Honda Classic this week, this could be the time we finally see the nine-time winner on the DP World Tour finally breakthrough stateside.
Brooks Koepka +2200
Matt Vincenzi: This is purely a ceiling play on Brooks Koepka. He won’t show up in many stat models this week or jump off the page with his play over the past six months, but he has shown that when he returns to courses where he has had success in the past, he can contend.
Before missing the cut at Riviera, Koepka was off to the races at the Waste Management, where he finished third. The reason for his success was his strong off the tee game. We have seen at PGA National that despite it being a shorter course, golfers who hit it long and straight tend to do very well.
Back in 2019, Koepka came in second at the Honda Classic and looked like he was going to force a playoff before Keith Mitchell drained a 15-foot birdie putt on the 18th green to win the tournament. Koepka is comfortable at PGA National and tends to play great golf in Florida. His best putting surface by a wide margin is Bermudagrass, which is no surprise given that he grew up in Florida and attended Florida State University.
Could Koepka miss the cut once again this week? Absolutely. But in the outright betting market, a missed cut pays the same amount as a second-place finish. If Brooks is engaged and motivated, he is the class of the field and will be difficult to beat.
Mito Pereira — Top 20 (+250)
Landon Sillinsky: Pereira seems to be the darling of the week in the golf betting streets. He’s coming off a really impressive showing at Riviera, closing with a final-round 70 en route to a T15. He gained 1.95 strokes on approach on Sunday as well, setting him up for a good week at PGA National where precise ball striking will be of utmost importance.
It’s his first ever appearance at the Honda, so betting him outright at one of the five toughest courses on the PGA TOUR is a bit aggressive for me. However, his elite iron play should help him evade some of the water hazards and if he gets a few putts to drop he could easily post a top-20 in this spot.
Sungjae Im – Top Asian (+110)
Rob Bolton: The Honda Classic is a crapshoot, so the idea here is to hammer this hard. Multiply the investment.
There are only seven others that the 2020 champion must beat to convert, and none of them will keep me up at night. (For the record, K.H. Lee at +400 slots second.)
As much of a no-brainer as that is – hey, this is “Best Bets,” after all – it’s really tied for my favorites, or at least there are two others that deserve the attention. Call is a 1, 1a and 1b kind of week.
Vegas, Hughes and Pereira to make the cut (+200)
Rob Bolton: This one is worth the thrill. (On an aside, none of FanDuel’s 67 parlays fit this need, but I enjoy reviewing the combinations and even chuckling at why some even exist.) Because it takes just one bad hole at PGA National to spoil the party, ease into this prop.
The other one is the most provocative, but not without justification.
Joaquin Niemann to Miss the Cut (+300)
Rob Bolton: Remember when I connected with Jon Rahm to miss the cut at the Fortinet Championship at +700? It had all the makings essentially because, despite evidence to the contrary, at least concerning his results, Rahm is a human being. Lo and behold, he missed the cut. Who knows, maybe I really do know what I’m doing.
Well, this week’s projected letdown is last week’s champion, Joaquin Niemann, also human despite the performance. BetMGM boards him at +300 to miss the cut, and I’m here for it.
I know what you know – form, home game, 23 years young – but no one played more stressful golf at Riviera, which means that no one is more prime for a break. When it happens, you can tell yourself that I told you so.
Brooks Koepka +2500
Bryan Berryman: This is one where I’m simply not going to overthink it.
Daniel Berger and Brooks Koepka are clearly the best two players in this field. Getting Koepka at the boosted +2500 number on bet365 makes him priced as the seventh player on the board. As a data driven bettor, I always use hard numbers and data trends to guide my decisions on a weekly basis.
The recent data on Koepka shows a guy who is close, but has failed to put it all together for four rounds. Every week there seems to be one facet of the game that is missing, so it’s hard to point to anything from a data standpoint that is going to make Brooks stand out here.
Sometimes a zoomed out approach is necessary. Koepka is one of the best players in this field, and it’s only a matter of time before he puts it all together. I’m betting on talent to shine through in a field that is not among the best we’ll see this year on TOUR.
Russell Knox +6600
Joshua Perry: Knox has played well here in the past, finishing top three twice, but it’s been awhile since he’s shown that type of game at PGA National. His approach has been in good shape so far this year and led to some consistent results out west on courses like Torrey Pines and Riviera that shouldn’t really suit his style.
The best number this week on Knox can be found at PointsBet, as of Tuesday night.
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