Updated 2022 John Deere Classic Odds & 7 Picks for Denny McCarthy, J.T. Poston, More

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No one is going to confuse the field at the 2022 John Deere Classic with the Masters, but that should work in our favor this week.

There is plenty of unknown about this week’s stop on the PGA TOUR, with most top players taking the week off before heading across the pond to start Open Championship prep. That leaves us with players trying to make up ground in the FedEx Cup race, or to get their 2022s going.

Webb Simpson and Adam Hadwin are atop the odds board, which I doubt we’ll ever say again. We’ve featured Simpson across our preview content this week as a good value in certain spots, but he doesn’t make the cut for our favorite plays.

Scores will be low this week at TPC Deere Run, and our GolfBet staff is all over who will thrive the most. Check out our writers’ best bets for the week in the Quad Cities below.

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2022 John Deere Classic Best Bets

Denny McCarthy — Top 10 (+275)

Jason Sobel: While I faded most of the previous week’s U.S. Open contenders at the Travelers, I did like McCarthy to back up his strong performance, but he could never get it going and wound up missing the cut. That didn’t help last week, but I do believe it should make us even more bullish on him this week, having just enjoyed a few unexpected days off leading into this one. It was only the first MC for McCarthy in an individual event since February, so I expect him to bounce back in a big way.

There are plenty of players about whom we often say, “He’s a great ball-striker; if he can putt just a little above average, he’ll contend.” McCarthy is essentially the opposite. One of the game’s premier putters, he just needs to strike it pretty well — not great — to have a chance. That’s been happening lately, as he’s gained strokes with the irons in six of his last eight starts. I like him to be in the mix come Sunday.

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J.T. Poston — Top 10 (+600)

Chris Murphy: There are several directions I wanted to go here this week, but as it dragged on, the smaller the odds got for guys like John Huh. So, I’ll pivot instead to a top finish for J.T. Poston, who seems to run hot with form and is coming off a T2 finish at the Travelers Championship last week.

Poston is a guy who can really compete at the top when he brings his ball striking and tee-to-green game since he's one of the elite putters nearly every week. In each of his last three top-10 finishes, he has gained 7.9 shots or better tee to green, including 9.1 just last week. I’ll look for him to continue that form into a course that should suit his style of play despite his past results.

The +600 number is a solid enough number to give us some value to capture his overall upside.

J.T. Poston +5500

Derek Farnsworth: If the Post Man can pull off the win this week, perhaps people will stop mistaking him for a fan and recognize him as one of the golfers on TOUR.

I often look for trends when betting, and Poston is clearly trending in the right direction with his ball striking and with his birdie rate. Here’s how he rates out in this field over different timeframes:

Ball-Striking

Birdie or Better %

Poston's best weapon has always been his putter, so it’s really encouraging that he’s starting to strike the ball well. He should enter the week with plenty of confidence after finishing in a tie for second at last week’s Travelers Championship. His odds at DraftKings (+5500) were too good for me to pass up.

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J.T. Poston +5500

Joshua Perry: This is not a spot Poston has played well in previously, but he's also never had good form coming in. He's coming off a good week at the Travelers, where he tied for second and also had top-10s recently at Harbour Town and the Wells Fargo.

Chesson Hadley +12500

Matt Vincenzi: Chesson Hadley used an excellent Sunday to catapult him to a top-5 finish at the Travelers Championship. His excellent round of 64 was one shot shy of the low round of the day, and it's within the realm of possibility that he can use the momentum to propel him into contention at the John Deere Classic.

In the past, we've seen hot putters propel golfers to victory at TPC Deere Run. Hadley is a player who is capable of gaining an absurd number of strokes with the putter when he has it going.

The John Deere Classic is one of the few spots on the schedule where journeymen have been able to get it done, making it as good of a spot as ever to end Hadley's nine-year winless run on TOUR.

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Chez Reavie — Top 10 (+450)

Landon Silinsky: The veteran Reavie has been playing quite well of late, making four of his past five cuts with three top-15 finishes in that stretch, culminated by last week's T8 at the Travelers. In this stretch, Reavie ranks ninth in this field in SG: Ball-Striking, and third in both SG: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained.

TPC Deere Run has been an annual stop for Reavie over the years, as well, playing here eight times since 2012 and making the cut in seven of those starts. He's got three top-18 finishes in that stretch at this event and provides some value for us to post a repeat performance.

Hayden Buckley — Top 30 (+260)

Rob Bolton: The way my luck has gone, your best bet would be to skip over me. This page should be titled, “Best Bets and Rob’s,” because my goodness…

So, I’m not ashamed to retreat into this layer while giving respect to, you know, golf.

All half-joking aside, it’s sensible to lower the expectation with fewer strong predictors in play. It’s a flat field in a shootout. Beware.

As it always has been in this space when we’re faced with this combination of variables, my primary objective is to double the kickback without reaching for a top 20 (because I learned very early that, despite my years of experience as an advisor and a consultant, targeting worthy top 20s in the context of betting is hard).

Buckley is a rookie, but he’s presented with the composure of a veteran. He’s a worker. At the U.S. Open, he acknowledged that his results haven’t matched the progress he’s been seeing in practice — that old chestnut — but he delivered a T14 at the major, and then a T43 at the Travelers Championship, where he fell 12 spots in the finale.

Breadcrumbs, gang.

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Cameron Davis +4500

Bryan Berryman: TPC Deere Run is going to yield a ton of birdies this week. The set up consists of wide landing areas off the tee, that will leave just a wedge in on many approach shots. With a winning score expected to eclipse the 20-under range, it’s important to target golfers who have a high birdie or better percentage.

There's no better fit for that category than Cameron Davis, who ranks first in this field in birdie or better percentage over the last 50 rounds.

The approach game has also been trending in the right direction for Davis, who ranks sixth in this field in strokes gained: approach over the last 24 rounds. When you combine his recent ball striking with a top-10 ranking in strokes gained putting on Bentgrass greens, you have a player who is primed to attack this setup.

Davis also has a history of success at events played on easier tracks. His lone win came at Rocket Mortgage last July with a winning score of 18-under. Including the win, he’s had seven top-15 finishes the last three seasons in weeks where the winning score was 18-under or better.

He may not be the player you want to target in a U.S. Open, grinder-style format. But in birdie-fests, I love his chances.