2022 John Deere Classic Round 3 Odds & Picks: Low Scores Available Going into Moving Day

2022 John Deere Classic Round 3 Odds & Picks: Low Scores Available Going into Moving Day article feature image

(Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images). Pictured: Emiliano Grillo.

J.T. Poston kept his foot on the gas in Round 2 at the John Deere Classic as he posted a 6-under 65 to follow his 62 on Thursday and will carry a four-shot lead into the weekend. He did finally make his first bogey, but he got it back quickly and is cruising through the opening 36 holes.

Another player with a similar skillset who has shown some good form of late, Denny McCarthy, is the closest player in pursuit of Poston. McCarthy matched the 6-under 65 of the leader and will play in the final pairing on Saturday at TPC Deere Run. A few others are one shot further back as the last group in double digits under par after the first two rounds.

The first win of Poston's career was another nearly flawless four round stretch as he won the Wyndham Championship without posting a single bogey. That won't be the case this week, but unless something changes in his game this weekend, it's going to take some great golf from someone else to chase him down. We'll look to see if we can find players in position to do so as we head into moving day at the John Deere Classic.

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Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.

Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.

In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

3 Golfers to Buy in Round 3

We have J.T. Poston plugging along and playing great golf at the top, but if he were to stumble this weekend it would bring a bunch of players into the mix. I like to go into these scenarios — a less experienced leader with two rounds to play — with a view of who can get to second. There are plenty of players within a few shots of 11-under and I'll be taking some shots on those guys with the hopes we may get some help from Poston because of the pressure of the weekend.

The first player of that bunch is Emiliano Grillo. The Argentinian is one of the best ball strikers in this field when he has his game and he certainly appeared to have found it in Round 2. He gained better than four shots on the field in that category on Friday and if that is a sign of things to come the rest of the way, he will be in the hunt to battle for his first TOUR win since 2015. The question for Grillo is usually about the flatstick, so it is a great sign to see him gaining nearly a stroke per round on the greens the first two days. He is a player who can run hot and certainly go low, all of which adds up to a solid buy for me heading into moving day.

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I'm going to drop a bit deeper to the players at 8-under for my next two buys. Christiaan Bezuidenhout is another player with a similar skillset to both Poston and McCarthy and when he brings his ball striking, he usually has a strong week. The South African has one of the more reliable short games in this field and he seems to be putting it together better tee to green. He was much improved, especially on approach, in Round 2. If he can continue that trend into Saturday, he can certainly best the 6-under round he posted Friday to get into the mix before the final round.

My final buy — the one I am most likely to take a shot on in outright markets — is Patton Kizzire. He is also at 8-under through the first two rounds and he's been really sharp with his iron play. He's been the best player in the field in SG: Approach through the first 36, gaining more than three shots in that category in each round. It's great to see Kizzire striking it so well heading into the weekend and if he can pick it up with the strength of his game, on the greens, he too could go low Saturday and be in the conversation going into the final round. I'm going to buy in at +6600 on BetRivers, which will also allow you to simultaneously take an each-way out a handful of spots and that is some of the best value I see on the board going into Saturday.

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3 Golfers to Fade in Round 3

Mattias Schwab is the player who really sticks out as a fade going into Saturday at TPC Deere Run. He started the week looking good tee to green, but everything flipped on Friday. Luckily, he had the putter going so hot that he gained more than four shots on the field, which more than made up for his 1.61 strokes lost on approach. The putter has a tendency to carry him at times and while he can certainly lean on that to make cuts, he can't rely solely on the flat stick to contend. I'm going to fade Schwab going into Saturday as I think he may be headed in the wrong direction tee to green, which will put too much pressure on his putter to keep him within the top 10 this weekend.

The biggest putting round of the week thus far belongs to Kelly Kraft, who gained 5.24 shots on the greens on Friday. That is quite a performance with the flat stick, but it comes with a second consecutive day with strokes lost on approach. I will admit I was surprised to find a couple top 15 finishes in Kraft's past several tournaments, but that won't dissuade me from the fade for Round 3. He will need to find the ball striking and keep the putter going in order to sustain his current position, something I just don't see happening going into Saturday.

My final fade heading into the third round is Curtis Thompson. He is still on the course for his second round and will have a couple of holes still to finish Saturday morning, but as of now he is losing strokes to the field tee to green for the week. The older brother of LPGA star Lexi Thompson, Curtis has struggled to find his way since getting to the TOUR this season. He's missed five straight cuts and doesn't have a top 35 finish this year. His play this week being so reliant on the short game and his troubles to really play at a high level all factor into this fade for me.

StrokesGained Data for All Players in Round 2

*There are still a number of players on the course for Round 2. Keep an eye on those as the cut will come once they finish. It is currently projected at 2-under.

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