2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds & 6 Outright Picks, Including Brooks Koepka & Gary Woodland

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Nothing much came out of the Arnold Palmer Invitational for us. Beau Hossler contended for about a day, and made a handful of birdies down the stretch to make the top 20 and keep the week from turning into a total disaster.

Now we're off to the PGA TOUR's crown jewel in THE PLAYERS Championship.

The Course

TPC Sawgrass measures at 7,250 yards for a par 72. It’s tough to overpower the course because doglegs and water limit where players can drive the ball. We end up seeing a lot of players hitting iron shots from similar places in the fairway.

This course seems to have the ability to expose everyone’s weakness. So it really just comes down to whoever can hide their flaws the best while having the best part of their game firing on all cylinders. There’s not really a specific style of play that suits Sawgrass.

It’s very difficult to string together consistent results. Usually, every course has a handful of players who will grind out high finishes the majority of the time. But Brian Harman is the only player entering this week with back-to-back top 10 finishes and in his three starts prior, he didn't finish in the top 50.

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The Favorites

There's a little disagreement at the top of the odds board for the first time in a while, but for most part, books are coming in with Jon Rahm and defending champ Justin Thomas as the favorites at +1200, followed by Collin Morikawa at +1400.

Rahm's been in good form all year minus the putter, Thomas is rolling along as well with three top 10s in his last four starts and Morikawa was second his last time out at the Genesis, so all have their games heading in the right direction.

Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland are next up in that +1800 range. Both looked likely to win the API at times last week before losing grips on decent-sized leads.

Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele close out the range and can be found between +2500 and +2800 depending on where you look. Scheffler is on the run of his career, but I'd rather look at majors down the road for him where there are still at few +4000s lurking around.

Schauffele was second in his debut, but hasn't made the cut since. Cantlay hasn't been seen yet in Florida and to date, the results have been mediocre here.

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The Mid-Tier

I'll open up my card here with Brooks Koepka at +4500 on PointsBet. Koepka has a couple top-20s here and has played well in Phoenix and at the Honda in recent weeks. He'll be fairly popular in the outright market at this price, I'd imagine.

We'll also go to Shane Lowry at +5000 on DraftKings. Lowry was looking fairly strong at PGA National before an unlucky break in the weather hurt his chances to win the Honda. He's finished inside the top 25 in his last five starts worldwide and was eighth here a year ago.

I'm also going to Gary Woodland at +8000 on DraftKings. Woodland has finished fifth the past two weeks and for a brief moment, it appeared he would win at Bay Hill. His results here leave something to be desired but when he has entered with good form, he's popped up on the leaderboard at times, finishing 11th in 2014.

My last play in this range will be Russell Henley at +9000 on FanDuel. Henley is another guy with a checkered history here, but enters playing solid golf. He's only missed the cut once in his last 17 starts: The Open back in July. The irons have been in really good shape, gaining ground in four of the last five starts. The driver has been what's held him back, but this course is less reliant on distance than may help him here.

The Longshots

Of the big events, this is one of the better times to take a chance or two down the board.

We'll start in this spot with Alex Noren at 125/1 on bet365. Noren has gained on approach in six-straight starts and has finished inside the top 20 twice in four starts here. He's got a couple high finishes recently with a fifth at the Honda and sixth in Phoenix.

I'll close with Emilano Grillo at 280/1 on FanDuel. Grillo's results haven't really popped yet this year, but he's gained strokes off the tee in every event in 2022.

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THE PLAYERS Championship Card

• Brooks Koepka +4500 (.83 units)
• Shane Lowry +5000 (.66 units)
• Gary Woodland +8000 (.41 units)
• Russell Henley +9000 (.37 units)
• Alex Noren +12500 (.26 units)
• Emilano Grillo +28000 (.12 units)

Total Stake: 2.65 units