2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds & Picks: Murphy’s 3 Best Bets at Kapalua

Golf is BACK!

The best part of the turn to the new year is getting the PGA TOUR started back in Hawaii, and this week it comes with an elite field at Kapalua for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Every winner from last season, excluding Rory McIlroy, will be set to tee it up at The Plantation Course in a 39-player, no-cut tournament.

The field will include eight of the top-10 players in the world without only Dustin Johnson failing to capture a win last year, and the aforementioned McIlroy, who opted out of playing this week. Xander Schauffele is the only player in the field that didn't win a traditional TOUR event last season, as he received a special exemption to play this event by virtue of his Gold Medal in the Tokyo Olympics.

It's great to see such a high level of talent heading to Hawaii this year, but it makes for an interesting betting board from an odds perspective. Many books have as many as six players listed at +1200 or shorter, all with World No. 1 Jon Rahm leading the way. Justin Thomas and his stellar course history at Kapalua is second on many boards, as he looks to bounce back from what many would consider a disappointing season despite his win at The PLAYERS.

The unique par-73 Plantation Course suits players like Thomas, as the wide fairways allow for players to be a little loose off the tee. It also has some of the largest greens on TOUR averaging over 8,700 square feet in size, putting less of an emphasis on players that make their money hitting fairways and greens in a standard week.

The large greens do bring in the need to be able to handle long, undulating putts, and they put a premium on the ability for players to capitalize on the chances they get when they do hit an approach in close.

Most years, this event has seen a winner in the mid-20s under par, with the other years aided by the protection of coastal winds. It appears we are set for a nice calm week of weather at Kapalua this year, so we can expect some great scoring opportunities for this field.

It should be noted that the other protection of this course is the unique elevations and undulations, which have historically given players trouble in their first trip to the event. Guys like Sam Burns, Talor Gooch and Seamus Power are a few of the 11 first-timers this year.

Now that we have all of the details laid out, let's get into my best bets for this first tournament of 2022.

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Best Bets

Patrick Reed (+3000)

There aren't many numbers to get excited about this week but when I found that Patrick Reed had drifted out to +3000 on PointsBet, it helped to push him into my best bet category.

Reed has historically played well at this event having won it back in 2015 and most recently with his runner-up finish to Justin Thomas in a playoff two years ago. He certainly fits the mold of the type of player that I like for this course, as he is sharp throughout his bag when he is on. While the greens are large, the short game will be an important aspect this week.

Reed can be a volatile player, but he has clearly shown an ability to come out of the gates fast historically in Hawaii with the top end of his game to start a new year. There are many players ahead of him on the board that don't have that kind of history, so I am happy to grab the value on Reed at +3000 to start 2022.

Marc Leishman — Top 10 (+200)

One player who I am high to bounce back and find a win this year is Marc Leishman. He has done well historically in these winter months, including when given the opportunity to play the Sentry TOC.

Leishman qualified for this event with his team win at the Zurich Classic, alongside Cameron Smith. That came after Leishman posted a top-five finish at the 2021 Masters. He notched three more top-five finishes last year, including two during the recent fall swing.

The big Australian has top-10s in two of his four trips to this event, and his putter was the key to success both of those times. He gained five strokes putting in those two trips, while losing 8.1 strokes on these greens when he finished outside of the top 20.

Leishman is a player who prefers Bermuda greens. If he brings the good version of his flat stick with him, I like his value at +200 on BetMGM (which pays ties in full) to finish in the top 10 in a short field.

To End in a Playoff (+300)

I don't see a lot to love on the odds board this week, so I'll take a shot at a prop for some fun to start the new year.

The last two editions of this tournament have ended with a playoff. With all the talent in this field, it is easy to see this one needing more than 72 holes to get finished.

Sure, there have been years where prime DJ and the prior version of Spieth have run away from the field at this event, but I see it more likely as a bunched up leaderboard come Sunday.

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