2022 Shriners Children’s Open Odds & Expert Picks: 8 Best Bets for Cam Davis, Lee Hodges, Tom Kim & More
Via Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Cam Davis of Australia and the International Team plays his shot from the fourth tee during Friday four-ball matches on day two of the 2022 Presidents Cup at Quail Hollow Country Club on September 23, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Shriners Children's Open odds via bet365
|Si Woo Kim||+5000|
|Paul Haley II||+17500|
The PGA TOUR heads to Las Vegas with the third event of the 2022-2023 season at TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Children's Open. This event has the best field of the fall swing so far, with 2021 FedEx Cup winner Patrick Cantlay at the top of the odds board. 2022 Shriners Children's Open winner Sungjae Im is also back in Sin City to defend his title after winning by four strokes last year at -24.
Our GolfBet analysts have a full card of eight best bets for the tournament this week, including six outright bets, one top-20 bet, and a head-to-head matchup bet. Check out their analysis and picks below.
Cam Davis +4200 (FanDuel)
Jason Sobel: There was a Monday morning narrative in the golf world, one which I just wasn’t buying: It stated that Mackenzie Hughes and Ryan Fox, fresh off victories on their respective tours, should’ve been on the International team at the recent Presidents Cup. I maintain that there were no “snubs” – for either team – as the last few spots for the Internationals and the last spot for the Americans were largely up for grabs.
That said, I can absolutely get behind the concept that Taylor Zarzour floated to me Monday morning on “The Starter,” his SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show. His contention that each player had a little extra motivation is valid and has plenty of merit. Over the past week and a half, I’ve contended that those who played on that International team should similarly receive a confidence boost in coming weeks and months.
It wouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone if Tom Kim or K.H. Lee finds immediate success in the aftermath of that defeat, but my pick here is Davis, who’s been trending in the right direction for a while now and despite a 2-3-0 record at Quail Hollow, should have reason for optimism this week.
In addition to recent form – which includes five finishes of 16th or better in his last seven starts – I like that Davis bombs it off the tee (35th in Driving Distance last season) and makes a lot of birdies (34th in Birdie Average), each of which equates to success on TPC Summerlin.
Lee Hodges Top 20 +350 (BetMGM)
Chris Murphy: I’m going to stick with the placement bets here as they have been good to me of late. Rather than give you another write up on why I love Taylor Montgomery again this week, I’ll pivot to Lee Hodges.
We have seen Hodges flash a bit at times over the past year with his most notable finish coming at another tournament in the desert at the American Express back in January. He was the leader through much of that event, and there is some crossover correlation to this week’s tournament at the Shriners.
Hodges is also coming in with some form after he gained 5.9 shots with his ball striking last week in Mississippi, which was another event that put wedge in his hand quite often. I’ll take a bit of a conservative route with the top 20 here, but I am interested in him up and down the board, especially over on BetMGM where they pay all ties in placement bets in full.
Tom Kim +2200 (DraftKings)
Matt Vincenzi: While this may feel like a prisoner of the moment bet after Tom Kim’s electric performance at the Presidents Cup, this is actually a spot I’ve been circling for a while. TPC Summerlin should be a perfect course for Kim’s strengths.
Historically, it’s been crucial to hit fairways at this course in order to be successful. Winners of the event have gained an average of 1.2 strokes on the field per round in Fairways Gained. When looking at past winners of the event, it makes perfect sense. This is good news for Kim, as he ranks second in the field in his past 24 rounds in Fairways Gained.
Kim also makes birdies in bunches, which will be a requirement this week as the score should get in the -20 range. He ranks first in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage and is capable of winning a putting contest if that’s what the event turns into. He also leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and is clearly in form if his play at Quail Hollow was any indication.
Kim became a household name in the golf world a few weeks ago, but if he can win his second PGA TOUR event at the age of 20, we’ll also see his name in the record books.
Taylor Montgomery +4000 (Oddsboost on bet365)
Derek Farnsworth: I have bet on Montgomery in each of the first two events of the new season, and he has yet to disappoint with finishes of T3 at the Fortinet Championship and T9 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. He ran red-hot on the greens in Napa Valley and then gained 4.2 strokes with his ball striking last week in Mississippi.
The swing season is a great time to bet on the Korn Ferry Tour graduates, especially ones who made strong pushes toward the end of last season. Including his last two starts on the PGA TOUR, T-Mont has now rattled off top-15 finishes in 11 of his last 14 professional starts. He finished first on the Korn Ferry Tour in Birdie Average last season, and you’ll need a lot of those at TPC Summerlin in order to contend.
It also doesn’t hurt that this is essentially a home game, as he played his collegiate golf at UNLV and currently lives in Las Vegas.
Thomas Detry +6000 (DraftKings)
Landon Silinsky: Detry has been dominating the Fall swing thus far, having finished T12 at the Fortinet before last week's T9 at the Sanderson Farms. He would have finished higher if not for a third round 74, which is something Detry always seems to do when in contention.
Over this stretch, however, he ranks seventh in this field in both SG: Tee-to-Green and Total Strokes Gained and 22nd in SG: Ball-Striking. In addition to his strong play on the PGA TOUR, he’s also played well on the DP World Tour lately as well, having finished T5 at the BMW PGA Championship, which featured a stacked field.
He is also a bomber, ranking 11th on the DPWT in Driving Distance, which should help his cause this week in the altitude of Las Vegas. Getting 60/1 on an in-form Detry is quite enticing in a field that is not extremely deep outside of the top tier names.
Wyndham Clark +100 over Nick Taylor (DraftKings)
Spencer Aguiar: I don't believe this is the best betting card I have ever seen for the Shriners Children's Open, but let's go to the head-to-head market and grab Wyndham Clark +100 over Nick Taylor as my best bet option.
My model believes Taylor is one of the most overpriced golfers on the board, which isn't too dissimilar to last week when he also cracked the top-five mispriced commodities. The reason I am not giving him full credit for his 19th-place result at the Sanderson Farms comes down to an unstable strokes-gained distribution for the week.
If we removed the 2.4 shots he gained in round one with his irons and let him keep all other driving and iron totals during the other four days, Taylor would have proceeded to lose almost a half-shot to the field with his ball-striking metrics.
Sure, that is being nitpicky in the sense that we are taking away one of his high-end outcomes and removing it from the equation, but for a golfer who ranks 90th in my model for Total Driving and 78th in Weighted Proximity, I am not sure the form is as good as the numbers suggest.
If you can find a different opponent against Taylor at your shop, there is a chance it might be a more robust opportunity since my model does worry about the missed cut potential that Clark demonstrates himself, but I like that he becomes less of a liability when I run my data for safety. It wasn’t enough to completely remove the concern of him not making the weekend, but I would have had this priced closer to -130.
Rickie Fowler +250 for Top 20 (FanDuel)
Fowler opening 2022-23 with a T6 at Silverado is cool, but his reunion with Butch Harmon is the most valuable component of his career at this moment. It’s not only a phenomenal move to right the wrongs, but it’s also proof that he hasn’t settled despite how the results have suggested it over time.
We’ve needed Fowler to eliminate our collective thought of him going through the motions all the while retaining a smile and one of the best reputations in all of sport. He can be a disruptor, so grab this value while you can.
Cam Davis +4200 (FanDuel)
Bryan Berryman: With the winning score projected to be in the -21 to -24 range this weekend in Las Vegas, we’ll want to target golfers with high Birdie or Better Percentages who thrive in birdie-fest setups. Over the last 50 rounds, the Aussie ranks sixth in this field in Birdie or Better Percentage.
Another reason to like him this week is the course setup. Nine of the 11 par 4s measure in at under 450 yards. With an average Driving Distance of 309 yards last season, we can deduce that a large percentage of his approach shots will be coming from the 100-150 yards range – a yardage that has been a strong suit of his in his time on TOUR.
Over the last 50 tracked rounds, he’s one of only nine players in this field who rank inside the top 25 in Proximity to the pin from both the 100-125 and the 125-150 yard ranges.
Davis’ only career win on the PGA TOUR came at the Rocket Mortgage Classic – an event that sets up very similar to what we will see this week. I believe he’s in a great spot to capture his second career win this weekend.