2022 Tour Championship Odds, Expert Picks: Let’s Bet Tony Finau

Another PGA TOUR season is set to come to a close this week.

There's some intrigue around who will end up as the FedEx Cup champion, but from a betting perspective, this weekend isn't all that interesting in my eyes. The staggered starting scores will lead to a couple different markets in some places. One will factor in the strokes earned during the season, while the other will provide odds as if everyone was starting from even par.

It's important to make sure you're betting the proper market for what you want and if you see a number that looks way too good for what you want to bet, it's likely you're looking at the wrong odds set. Just double check those tickets before clicking submit.

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The Course

East Lake has played host to the Tour Championship each year since 2004. It’s a par-70 that measures 7,346 yards and is a fairly challenging test for this elite field.

The approach game is usually what separates the top of the field here. Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods each have two wins here. Henrik Stenson and Xander Schauffele have also notched victories. Schauffele also gets credit, at least in the world rankings, for a win here for his low-72-hole performance in 2020.

We’ll usually get a score in the 10- to 12-under par range coming out on top, though Schauffele managed to get to 15-under in 2020. Last year, Patrick Cantlay won the FedEx Cup, but Jon Rahm and Kevin Na got credit as co-72-hole champions in the world rankings when they finished 14-under.

It's just kind of a reminder as to why I like the no starting stroke odds. Na went out, played well for four days and wasn't really a threat to actually beat Cantlay. Na had no pressure of holding off the big names on Sunday. He was so far back in the actual tournament at the start that he was free to just play, much like we see in a short window on Sundays where guys come out early and shoot low rounds to backdoor into a decent result.

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The Favorites

Accounting for the starting strokes, Scottie Scheffler opens at the top at around +250 with Patrick Cantlay right behind at around +400. However, my focus will be on the odds without starting strokes. Rory McIlroy leads there at +700. McIlroy has been in great form all year and won here in 2016 and 2019.

Scheffler, Cantlay, Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele are in the next group between +1000 and +1200. Schauffele has played well here pretty much every time, winning twice and finishing top three on two other occasions. He'll be fairly popular this week.

Justin Thomas highlights the next group at +1400. He's been here six times and never finished outside the top 10. He's battled some lingering injuries of late, which seem to have impacted his form to close the year. He hasn't finished inside the top 10 since playing in Canada a week before the U.S. Open.

My lone play of this event will come in the next range here with Tony Finau at +1600.

Finau is in a good run of late with a couple wins and a fifth-place finish at the St. Jude in his past four starts. He wasn't as sharp last week at the BMW, but overall, he's playing better than he ever has in his career.

Overall, Finau's East Lake results have been spotty, but he's finished seventh twice, so he is capable of putting up a good result here. He's in that starting range I like as well, opening six back of Scheffler, but only five guys are ahead of him, so he knows if he can go low and get off to a fast start, he can be in contention.

For this type of bet, I want that aggressive mindset, as opposed to the guy at the top who feels like he already has a lead to defend.

The Tour Championship card

• Tony Finau +1600 (2 units)

Total Stake: 2 units

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