2022 Valero Texas Open Final Round Picks: Brandt Snedeker Highlights Sunday Buys & Fades
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandt Snedeker.
2022 Valero Texas Open Odds
Odds via PointsBet.
|J. J. Spaun||+600|
|Si Woo Kim||+2500|
|Charles Howell III||+5000|
|Mito Guillermo Pereira||+8000|
The leaderboard is packed at the top heading into the final round of the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio.
Four players are tied at the top, as Brandt Snedeker and Beau Hossler matched the rounds of the day with a 5-under 67. They will pair up for the final tee time on Sunday while Dylan Frittelli and J.J. Spaun will play from the penultimate group also at 10-under on the week.
Scott Stallings is the lone player at 9-under, while Matt Kuchar bogeyed 18 on Saturday to drop him to 8-under.
Nine more players are at 7-under and three shots behind the leaders heading into the final round, which will create high drama especially with a trip to Augusta National on the line. We’ll be looking for a combination of form and value as we try to untangle the mess at the top to find a winner on Sunday in Texas.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer is truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, ball-striking and tee-to-green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4
There have been a bunch of surprises this week as many of the players in contention this week haven’t been there much this year. Only Hossler has really been under this weekend pressure of late and while I could see him getting it done, I’m going to make my play with Brandt Snedeker.
Snedeker has led the field across the first three rounds in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He backed up an impressive second round that saw him gain more than five shots on approach with 1.24 gained with his irons on Saturday. Even more impressive was the fact he gained better than a shot on the field across each metric tee to green.
Despite being the only multi-time TOUR winner tied at the top, Snedeker is listed by most books as the longshot of the four at +650 on BetMGM. I’ll take my chances on his experience and form to capitalize on his opportunity to make another trip to Augusta next week.
We bought in on Maverick McNealy going into Round 3, and I’m going to stick with him on Sunday. He’s second in the field this week in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking, just a shade behind Henrik Norlander.
McNealy got off to a really nice start on Saturday with five birdies in his opening nine holes. Even as he slowed and stumbled a bit on the back, he held it together to stay in contention.
He’ll go into the final round on Sunday looking for his first career win and he is a talent to where it is just a matter of when, not if, he wins. I wouldn’t be surprised to see McNealy come out on top on Sunday, especially if he can start to get his best club going: his putter.
Aaron Rai has been lingering on the edge of the first page of the leaderboard much of this week and several times this season. He has certainly shown to have the talent to compete in the states and if he continues giving himself opportunities, he just might break through one of these weeks.
Rai gained 2.97 shots on the field tee-to-green on Saturday, which was the fourth best in the field. Similar to Snedeker, he wasn’t outstanding in one category, but he really found success throughout his bag.
Rai is tied at 7-under alongside McNealy going into the final round, and he will be someone I’m interested in through many markets on Sunday. He’s even worth a look at +6000 to win on PointsBet. There’s definitely a scenario in which he’s in the hunt for the victory down the final few holes.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4
When I look at the four up top, J.J. Spaun is the one that stands out to me as the least likely to come through with a win. He just seems a step behind in the talent department from the other three contenders and he really had trouble avoiding the big mistake on Saturday.
Spaun had a share of the lead on the front nine on Saturday before he fell apart on his final hole going out, when he made double bogey. He spent time in the rough on either side of that green, and it led to a six. He found similar struggles on his final hole of the day, once again as the leader, when he sprayed his drive into trouble off the 18th tee. A bogey there dropped him back into his current tie.
It’s fair to wonder if he saw his name at the top and got a little jittery in those spots, and that for me could spell a tough night’s sleep and Sunday for Spaun.
If you look at the numbers, it’s really fairly remarkable that Scott Stallings is in the position he’s in. He’s only one shot back of the lead despite being just merely field average with both aspects of his ball-striking this week.
Stallings has used a great short game to stay in the hunt, gaining more than two shots putting each of the past two rounds. He added 2.54 more strokes around the green on Saturday. The pressure on Sunday is always a bit different even for a vet like Stallings, and I worry about his ability to stay in contention without solid ball striking to lean on during the round.
I’ve been a big Mito Pereira supporter throughout the early part of his PGA TOUR career and still very much believe in his talent. He’s put up some good finishes here and there but hasn’t really been in contention for that first win. He’s unlikely to get in that spot on Sunday at TPC San Antonio either, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop back from his current spot at T16.
Pereira has regressed with his approach play round by round throughout this tournament. He started fairly strongly on Thursday, but today was a real bottom for that aspect of his game. He lost 0.96 shots to the field with his irons in Round 3 and 0.90 more off the tee. His ball-striking as a whole was an issue and that is a big concern going into the final round as he looks to hold his spot inside the top 20.
Strokes Gained Data for All Players in Round 3
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