Updated 2022 Valspar Championship Odds & 7 Picks for Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, More

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After the marathon that was THE PLAYERS Championship, the PGA TOUR moves to the Tampa area for the Valspar Championship.

Five of the top-10 players in the world are in this field, which saw a couple players who played into Monday at TPC Sawgrass drop out. With some uncertainty up and down the odds board, though, that just means there are chances for bettors to thrive.

You'll recognize the names at the top — Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Dustin Johnson, etc. — and while one of our betting analysts is on one of them, the rest see value further down the board.

Without further delay, here are our staff's best bets for the Valspar Championship.

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Gary Woodland — Top 10 (+700)

Jason Sobel: I listed him as my favorite outright in this week’s preview, but I also warned that I’m less confident in that selection than usual, so I’m hedging toward a top-10 here.

I was searching for a player who didn’t have to wait out the entire weekend at THE PLAYERS, ostensibly coming into this one a little more well-rested than those who played the entire thing. (I like reigning runner-up Keegan Bradley, too, but coming off a Monday evening title contention, some lethargy is inevitable.) But I didn’t want a guy who’d just MC’d and has short odds this week, either; that scares me a little. (Sure, maybe Collin Morikawa was simply mired in the bad draw last week, but I’m not paying up to find out.)

So instead, I went seeking a player who didn’t make the cut and owns some longer odds, but also one who should have some win equity; I mean, there’s no point in taking a guy with a massive number who can’t win. (Matt Wallace is a nice player with a huge price, but he hasn’t made a single cut in the U.S. yet this year.)

Put all those things together and the dial landed on Woodland, who won this tourney 11 years ago, but admittedly hasn’t done much since, with MCs in four of his last six appearances and nothing inside the top-40. Even though he MC’d last week, he was right there in the mix at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago, as a pair of pars on the final two holes would’ve given him the title. He’s certainly back to playing some better golf and could maybe find some good vibes at this one.

In what I think is a difficult week to handicap, especially coming off the extended PLAYERS week, I’ll be conservative with all pre-tourney plays for this one.

Matt Fitzpatrick — Top 5 (+500)

Chris Murphy: Fitzpatrick was one of the names I was looking for as odds trickled out on Monday night, and I liked the opening numbers, but unfortunately they were at books unavailable to me. When it got to Tuesday morning and the odds were released at more places, news of withdrawals from Joaquin Niemann and Paul Casey slashed Fitzpatrick’s outright odds. I’m still interested, but it’s a hard sell at around +2500 for a player who is yet to break through in the states.

I’ll instead transition my best bet to be a bit more conservative with a Top 5 over on BetMGM, the books that pays all ties in full. He’s +500 there, which poses good value for a player who is a perfect fit for the course at Innisbrook Resort. It’s a course that doesn’t penalize him for his distance off the tee and really highlights some of his strengths with his ability to hit fairways and greens.

The Englishman also has a heavy preference for the Bermuda grass putting surfaces he will see this week at the Valspar, which really sets him up for a top tier finish after a disappointing missed cut at THE PLAYERS.

Bet Fizpatrick at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

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Aaron Wise +9000

Matt Vincenzi: Aaron Wise has had some putting woes of late, but his ball striking has been immaculate. At a course where a lot of players will have a hard time putting, his biggest weakness is somewhat mitigated. In his past two starts at API and The PLAYERS, Wise has gained an average of 4.4 strokes on approach and 8.5 strokes from tee-to-green. That type of elite ball striking is exactly what is required to be successful at Copperhead.

The 25-year-old has an incredibly high ceiling and reminds me a lot of Sam Burns coming into this event last year in terms of skill set and career trajectory. Both were highly regarded prior to turning pro with plenty of college accolades. Additionally, both had one PGA TOUR victory at a lesser event (Wise at the 2018 Byron Nelson and Burns the 2021 Sanderson Farms Championship). Interestingly enough, Burns was also +8000 to win the Valspar Championship last year when he hoisted the trophy.

Wise is a talented young golfer with a high ceiling who’s worth a shot at a high price this week. PointsBet has the best number, as of Tuesday night.

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Viktor Hovland +1100

Landon Sillinsky: Hovland is coming off a ball-striking masterclass last week at TPC Sawgrass, gaining a whopping 14.1 strokes combined off-the-tee and on approach. That signals that somebody is absolutely ready to win.

As per usual, it was his around-the-green play that kept him from truly contending at THE PLAYERS, especially on Sunday as he lost 1.83 strokes to the field in that department. We know Hovland has a brutal short game, but we also know that’s incredibly volatile week to week.

If we take a broader view we will see just how dominant Hovland has been. He ranks No. 1 in this field across his past 48 rounds in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach. There’s a chance he’s the best ball-striker on the planet at just 24-years old.

Hovland’s results dating back to Mayakoba in November read: 1st, 1st, T30, T4, 1st, MC, T4, T2, T9. Hovland has the same amount of PGA TOUR victories over the past four months (two) as Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry have combined over the past calendar year. (We’re counting the Hero World Challenge.) That is not a typo.

The Norwegian was T3 last year on debut at Valspar and everything is pointing to this golf prodigy improving on that this time around.

Alex Noren — Outright (+7000) and Top 10 (+600)

Derek Farnsworth: I love the number we are getting on Noren this week. I’m betting him outright and to finish inside the top 10.

Noren has made five straight cuts on the PGA TOUR, gaining over 16 strokes on approach during that stretch. He has long been one of the best scramblers in the game, and he has more spike putting weeks than most (where he gains four or more strokes on the greens).

The Swede isn’t the best off the tee, but most players will be clubbing down on a lot of the holes at the Copperhead Course. He has an excellent track record in Florida and finished T21 in his debut at this event last season.

If Noren can keep it together off the tee and have another good week with his irons, I like his chances to be in the mix on Sunday. The best numbers for Noren are at FanDuel.

Bet Noren & Bolton's prop at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

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Brooks Koepka to miss the cut (+240)

Rob Bolton: First thing’s first.

He was sailing along so nicely, even reliably, but dammit if the dark side of Si Woo Kim didn’t make the dreaded appearance at THE PLAYERS Championship. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but his mid-tournament WD spoiled an otherwise slick four-headed, top-40 parlay at +2900 for which the other three delivered.

Focusing forward now, I’m taking the week off from even looking at parlays in favor of the prop.

The circumstances are different, but the feeling is the same. Just like Jon Rahm prior to fulfilling my expectation for missing the cut (at +700) at the season-opening Fortinet Championship, Koepka also is checking off his new-event requirement at Copperhead. It’s been seven editions since his last appearance, which means that he hasn’t appeared in the last four. It’s that simple.

As you already know, Koepka is notoriously a non-factor in non-majors and on tracks or experiences with which he doesn’t connect. Because he’s talented for generations, circling this prop is a no-brainer in the absence of engaging motivations. It should be a short stay outside Tampa.

Russell Knox — Top 40 (+100)

Bryan Berryman: I like Knox to keep the momentum going this week at Valspar after an impressive top 10-finish at THE PLAYERS last week.

Knox has been one of the hottest ball strikers on tour in 2022, gaining over 20 strokes tee-to-green over his last five starts. His skill set fits nicely with what the Copperhead course demands, which is backed up by his impressive history here that includes five top-40 finishes in seven career starts.

I’m not sure he has the upside to win this event outright, but I do love the plus money number that is being offered on a top-40 finish this week."

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