2022 Valspar Championship Odds & Picks: Tommy Fleetwood Headlines 5 First-Round Leader Bets

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The PGA Tour will stay in Florida this week for the 2022 Valspar Championship.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a par-71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 15, 16 and 17 — also known as the “snake pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field consists of 156 golfers teeing it up. Some notable players in the mix are Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick.

As usual, my first round leader strategy will consist of betting mostly long shots who have a chance to get off to a fast start. 

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Tommy Fleetwood (+6000)

Fleetwood is seemingly finding his form during the Florida swing. With back to back top-21 finishes in strong field events, there’s a lot to like about Tommy going forward. He gained 8.0 strokes from tee to green at TPC Sawgrass and had his long irons dialed in, which is key for this week.

He started extremely hot at THE PLAYERS before losing steam and I can see something similar happening at Copperhead. 

Aaron Wise (+9000)

In his past two starts at API and THE PLAYERS, Wise has gained an average of 4.4 strokes on approach and 8.5 strokes from tee-to-green. That type of elite ball striking is exactly what is required to be successful at Copperhead. 

Wise is a golfer who can make birdies in bunches and can get off to a hot start. 

Kevin Streelman (+9000)

Streelman is a former Valspar champion who seemed to come to life last week at THE PLAYERS. Although I’m not putting much emphasis on last week’s statistics, it was encouraging to see him gain 3.7 strokes on approach en route to a 22nd place finish in a difficult test. When Streelman gets hot he tends to string together solid performances. 

Matthias Schwab (+10000)

Schwab is an elite ball striker who should be a great fit for Copperhead. He has quietly been playing well on the PGA TOUR with back to back 7th place finishes at the Honda Classic and Puerto Rico Open. 

Schwab has been excellent on the DP World Tour, but has had an issue thus far closing out events and winning. First round leader is probably the most sensible market to back Schwab in this week. 

Kramer Hickok (+20000)

Kramer had his irons dialed in at TPC Sawgrass where he gained 3.6 strokes on approach. There seems to be a strong correlation between results at Copperhead and TPC River Highlands where they play the Travelers Championship. If you buy into that narrative, his narrow playoff loss to Harris English at The Travelers last year should provide some confidence.

At long odds, Hickok can pop up early on the leaderboard.

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