2023 Genesis Invitational Sleeper Expert Picks & Odds: Keegan Bradley, Taylor Moore Fit Riviera

2023 Genesis Invitational Sleeper Expert Picks & Odds: Keegan Bradley, Taylor Moore Fit Riviera article feature image
Credit:

Via Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Keegan Bradley of the United States plays his shot from the fifth tee during the final round of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 12, 2023 in Scottsdale, Arizona.

  • Looking for sleeper bets for the Genesis Invitational? We've got you covered.
  • Roberto Arguello has found value on two golfers, Keegan Bradley and Taylor Moore, at 66-1 and 130-1, respectively.
  • Find his long shot picks and analysis below.
Click arrow to expand the Genesis Invitational odds via PointsBet
Player NameOdds
Jon Rahm+750
Rory McIlroy+850
Scottie Scheffler+1000
Tony Finau+1600
Justin Thomas+1600
Xander Schauffele+1600
Max Homa+2000
Collin Morikawa+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2200
Viktor Hovland+2800
Cameron Young+3000
Sungjae Im+3000
Jordan Spieth+3500
Sam Burns+3500
Will Zalatoris+4000
Matt Fitzpatrick+4000
Jason Day+4500
Tom Kim+4500
Hideki Matsuyama+5000
Tyrrell Hatton+5000
Keegan Bradley+6000
Rickie Fowler+6000
Adam Scott+6000
Taylor Montgomery+6600
Sahith Theegala+6600
Justin Rose+7500
Russell Henley+8000
Tommy Fleetwood+9000
Alex Noren+9000
Keith Mitchell+9000
Corey Conners+9000
Seamus Power+9000
Brian Harman+9000
Wyndham Clark+9000
Si Woo Kim+10000
Shane Lowry+10000
K.H. Lee+11000
Adam Hadwin+11000
Taylor Moore+12500
Tom Hoge+12500
Patrick Rodgers+12500
Tiger Woods+12500
J.T. Poston+12500
Lucas Herbert+12500
Beau Hossler+15000
Billy Horschel+15000
Kurt Kitayama+15000
Scott Stallings+15000
Thomas Detry+15000
Luke List+15000
Nick Taylor+15000
Denny McCarthy+17500
Alex Smalley+17500
Adrian Meronk+17500
Cam Davis+17500
Gary Woodland+17500
Jhonattan Vegas+17500
Matt Kuchar+20000
J.J. Spaun+20000
Hayden Buckley+20000
Joel Dahmen+20000
Sam Ryder+20000
Stephan Jaeger+25000
Brendon Todd+25000
Andrew Putnam+25000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+25000
Emiliano Grillo+25000
Dylan Frittelli+30000
Trey Mullinax+30000
Nick Hardy+30000
Harris English+30000
James Hahn+30000
S.H. Kim+30000
Mackenzie Hughes+30000
Sepp Straka+30000
Francesco Molinari+30000
David Lipsky+35000
Callum Tarren+35000
Aaron Rai+35000
Brandon Wu+35000
Davis Thompson+35000
Matthew NeSmith+35000
Justin Suh+35000
Patton Kizzire+40000
Lanto Griffin+40000
Kevin Kisner+40000
Peter Malnati+40000
Martin Laird+40000
Greyson Sigg+40000
Ben Taylor+40000
Russell Knox+40000
Matt Wallace+40000
Cameron Champ+40000
Mark Hubbard+40000
Danny Willett+40000
Stewart Cink+40000
Danny Lee+40000
Justin Lower+40000
Lee Hodges+40000
Adam Svensson+40000
Chez Reavie+50000
Keita Nakajima+50000
Troy Merritt+50000
Kevin Streelman+50000
Nate Lashley+50000
Kevin Tway+50000
Scott Piercy+50000
Adam Schenk+50000
Doug Ghim+60000
Chesson Hadley+60000
Adam Long+60000
Luke Donald+60000
Lucas Glover+60000
Michael Thompson+60000
Yeongsu Kim+70000
Doc Redman+70000
Matthias Schwab+70000
J.B. Holmes+70000
Jack Wall+75000
Ryan Brehm+100000
Nick Watney+100000
Marcus Byrd+100000
Kramer Hickok+100000
Robert Streb+100000
Tyler Duncan+100000
Kelly Kraft+100000
Austin Smotherman+100000
Chad Ramey+100000
Max McGreevy+100000

The PGA TOUR spends its last week on the West Coast at Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational before going to the Florida swing next week.

Riviera is a course that is among the players' favorites each year because it tests all facets of a golfer's game, and I am consequently targeting players who have shown command over all parts of their game recently.

Tiger Woods is not only hosting but also playing in the Genesis Invitational this week, and both of my sleeper picks have avoided the dreaded draw of playing within a few groups of Woods on both Thursday and Friday.

Let's dive into which players have value at relatively longer odds this week at the Genesis Invitational.

2023 Genesis Invitational Sleeper Picks

Keegan Bradley +6500 (FanDuel)

After hitting on Bradley to win at the ZOZO Championship in the fall, I’m willing to finally go back to him this week at Riviera. His game is firing on all cylinders, he has strong course history and his improved putting still isn’t being fully priced in.

Bradley is one of the hottest players on TOUR as he has three top finishes in his last seven starts. Additionally, his last two starts at Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale include a solo second and a T20 while he gained strokes in all four main strokes gained metrics (Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green and Putting).

Bradley is particularly strong on approach, and that will be rewarded this week with an unusually high percentage of approach shots coming from 150-200 yards at Riviera.

His putting numbers, particularly on poa annua, are also very encouraging. After struggling with the flatstick following the anchoring ban, Bradley has continued his upward trend in SG: Putting into the top quarter of the PGA TOUR.

YearSG: Putting RankSG: Putting Value
2023450.433
2022880.067
2021186-0.548
2020185-0.683
2019178-0.516

In his last start on pure poa greens at the Farmers Insurance Open, he finished second in the field in strokes gained on the greens (behind only Aaron Baddeley). I also loved how he was rolling the ball last week at TPC Scottsdale (where the greens are a mix of poa trivialis and rye overseed) when I was hosting PGA TOUR Live’s featured group coverage as most of his misses came due to misreads.

While Bradley’s poor putting really set him back over the last few years, he has shown that he can contend at Riviera in the past. The 2011 PGA Championship winner finished in the top 20 four consecutive years here (with a best finish of T2) from 2012-2015 and gained strokes with the putter in all four of those events.

Over the last three years, his putting results at Riv have consistently improved with his overall putting numbers as he lost 2.66 strokes on the greens (per round) in 2020, lost 1.14 strokes putting per round in 2021 then only lost 0.12 strokes per round here last year.

If Bradley continues to stay hot with his putter, he should be in contention this week and is one of the few longshots who can go toe-to-toe with the best in this field. I would bet him down to +5000 and also like the value on him to finish in the top 20 at +230.

Taylor Moore +13000 (DraftKings)

I love Taylor Moore this week because he has no holes in his game, is in great form and has shown to be a hot-and-cold player over the last few seasons.

Moore ranks slightly above average in driving distance, driving accuracy, SG Approach, SG Around the Green and SG Putting. All aspects of a golfer’s game will be tested at Riviera with penalties for missing fairways and greens due to the Kikuya rough. The greens at Riv are also some of the toughest to read on the entire PGA TOUR, but Moore ranked 23rd in SG Putting in his tournament debut last season (when he finished in a tie for 21st).

Moore is also hot right now, with top-15 finishes in each of his last three starts at Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale. In that span, Moore was above average in both driving distance and driving accuracy as he gained strokes off the tee and on approach in all three tournaments.

This is important because Moore has shown over his PGA TOUR and Korn Ferry career that he has a tendency to run hot-and-cold. Between March and September 2022 (17 starts), Moore had four top-25 finishes in individual stroke play tournaments on TOUR, and all four came within a six-week span (five starts).

I am comfortable taking a chance on Moore continuing to run hot this week on a course that should favor his all-around game by playing him to win the tournament at 130/1. I also like his value across the board in placement markets, so depending on your risk preference, I like him to finish in the top 20 at +360 and top 40 at +125.

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