2023 Genesis Invitational Sleeper Expert Picks & Odds: Keegan Bradley, Taylor Moore Fit Riviera
Via Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Keegan Bradley of the United States plays his shot from the fifth tee during the final round of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on February 12, 2023 in Scottsdale, Arizona.
- Looking for sleeper bets for the Genesis Invitational? We've got you covered.
- Roberto Arguello has found value on two golfers, Keegan Bradley and Taylor Moore, at 66-1 and 130-1, respectively.
- Find his long shot picks and analysis below.
Click arrow to expand the Genesis Invitational odds via PointsBet
|Si Woo Kim||+10000|
The PGA TOUR spends its last week on the West Coast at Riviera Country Club for the Genesis Invitational before going to the Florida swing next week.
Riviera is a course that is among the players’ favorites each year because it tests all facets of a golfer’s game, and I am consequently targeting players who have shown command over all parts of their game recently.
Tiger Woods is not only hosting but also playing in the Genesis Invitational this week, and both of my sleeper picks have avoided the dreaded draw of playing within a few groups of Woods on both Thursday and Friday.
Let’s dive into which players have value at relatively longer odds this week at the Genesis Invitational.
2023 Genesis Invitational Sleeper Picks
Keegan Bradley +6500 (FanDuel)
After hitting on Bradley to win at the ZOZO Championship in the fall, I’m willing to finally go back to him this week at Riviera. His game is firing on all cylinders, he has strong course history and his improved putting still isn’t being fully priced in.
Bradley is one of the hottest players on TOUR as he has three top finishes in his last seven starts. Additionally, his last two starts at Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale include a solo second and a T20 while he gained strokes in all four main strokes gained metrics (Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green and Putting).
Bradley is particularly strong on approach, and that will be rewarded this week with an unusually high percentage of approach shots coming from 150-200 yards at Riviera.
His putting numbers, particularly on poa annua, are also very encouraging. After struggling with the flatstick following the anchoring ban, Bradley has continued his upward trend in SG: Putting into the top quarter of the PGA TOUR.
|Year||SG: Putting Rank||SG: Putting Value|
In his last start on pure poa greens at the Farmers Insurance Open, he finished second in the field in strokes gained on the greens (behind only Aaron Baddeley). I also loved how he was rolling the ball last week at TPC Scottsdale (where the greens are a mix of poa trivialis and rye overseed) when I was hosting PGA TOUR Live’s featured group coverage as most of his misses came due to misreads.
While Bradley’s poor putting really set him back over the last few years, he has shown that he can contend at Riviera in the past. The 2011 PGA Championship winner finished in the top 20 four consecutive years here (with a best finish of T2) from 2012-2015 and gained strokes with the putter in all four of those events.
Over the last three years, his putting results at Riv have consistently improved with his overall putting numbers as he lost 2.66 strokes on the greens (per round) in 2020, lost 1.14 strokes putting per round in 2021 then only lost 0.12 strokes per round here last year.
If Bradley continues to stay hot with his putter, he should be in contention this week and is one of the few longshots who can go toe-to-toe with the best in this field. I would bet him down to +5000 and also like the value on him to finish in the top 20 at +230.
Taylor Moore +13000 (DraftKings)
I love Taylor Moore this week because he has no holes in his game, is in great form and has shown to be a hot-and-cold player over the last few seasons.
Moore ranks slightly above average in driving distance, driving accuracy, SG Approach, SG Around the Green and SG Putting. All aspects of a golfer’s game will be tested at Riviera with penalties for missing fairways and greens due to the Kikuya rough. The greens at Riv are also some of the toughest to read on the entire PGA TOUR, but Moore ranked 23rd in SG Putting in his tournament debut last season (when he finished in a tie for 21st).
Moore is also hot right now, with top-15 finishes in each of his last three starts at Torrey Pines, Pebble Beach and TPC Scottsdale. In that span, Moore was above average in both driving distance and driving accuracy as he gained strokes off the tee and on approach in all three tournaments.
This is important because Moore has shown over his PGA TOUR and Korn Ferry career that he has a tendency to run hot-and-cold. Between March and September 2022 (17 starts), Moore had four top-25 finishes in individual stroke play tournaments on TOUR, and all four came within a six-week span (five starts).
I am comfortable taking a chance on Moore continuing to run hot this week on a course that should favor his all-around game by playing him to win the tournament at 130/1. I also like his value across the board in placement markets, so depending on your risk preference, I like him to finish in the top 20 at +360 and top 40 at +125.
Pick: Taylor Moore +13000
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